All-Time NFL QBs: Playoff Edition
Posted by Chase Stuart on June 25, 2008
In case you haven't checked out the blog in a couple of days, here's a quick recap. On Friday, I explained the methodology I used to rank every regular season for every QB ever, and how I compiled his career rating. On Monday, I argued for Joey Harrington as the worst QB in NFL history, at least in a relative sense of receiving the most playing time while producing the least impressive stats. And then yesterday, I ranked the top 75 QBs in NFL history, leaving Dan Marino as the greatest regular season QB ever. Today, notwithstanding Jim Mora's wrath, I want to talk about playoffs. I'm not kidding you. Playoffs.
Whenever I've done a study analyzing NFL QBs, a frequent complaint is that I ignore post-season data. Part of the reason is simplicity -- I've got a long file of individual seasons, but a less complete and separate file of post-season seasons. It's easy to compare everyone across the board based on regular season numbers, while incorporating post-season data is tricky. Let me go through a few problems.
1) What weight do I give to post-season data? Do I weigh each playoff game equally, or give more weight to the later round games? What weights should be assigned? What standard should I compare the players against -- the league average for the post-season that year, or the league average for the regalar season that year? Should the QB's rating in that year's regular season matter?
2) Sample size issues. You might get one game against a terrific defense, or a game in a blizzard. Over the course of 10 regular seasons, I assume that those things even out. To the extent that they don't, I believe people subjective adjust the numbers, anyway (i.e., move Fouts and Anderson down because of their innovative offensive systems, move Elway up because of his weak supporting cast, and maybe move someone like Favre up because he plays in Green Bay).
3) I only have post-season data for QBs from 1967-2006, and I don't have sacks data for any of those games. I think that's a pretty significant problem, but it's not fatal. Pretty soon I'll get the 2007 data into my database, but I didn't want to let that delay me from posting.
4) Mostly, I thought that because the system was complicated enough, and because there would be some very real gripes with the method no matter what I chose, I took the hassle minimization approach. To be frank, I also feel that for the most part, post-season performances are overrated. Guys get way too much credit for post-season wins and losses, in my opinion, and it really overshadows the talent or ability of the QB.
But I thought it over some more. I don't have to focus on wins or losses at all. I could look simply at the QB's stats, and nothing more. For someone like Montana, the post-season makes up a very substantial part of his career -- he has 732 post-season attempts and 5,391 regular season attempts. So I'm effectively excluding over 10% of his career by ignoring the playoffs. Of course, you could do that and he still comes out as a top five QB.
That said, I'm going to go forward with some post-season analysis in the same way I did the best and worst QB analysis -- comparing the QB to the league average QB from the regular season that year. I'm going to assume, which is quite wrong, that no QB was ever sacked in the post-season from 1967 to 2006, and that no post-season games before 1967 were ever played. It's unfortunate, and often incomplete data is worse than no data, but I'm going to cave to demand here.
So... which QB had the best post-season of all time? No matter how you slice it, it was Joe Montana in 1989. But the guy who ranks #2 on the list might surprise you.
The table below shows the top 30 post-season performances by all QBs from 1967 to 2006, while weighing each playoff game equally.
1989 436 Joe Montana 2003 434 Jake Delhomme 1992 402 Troy Aikman 1968 383 Daryle Lamonica 1988 364 Joe Montana 1993 355 Jeff Hostetler 1990 354 Jim Kelly 1985 334 Jim McMahon 1978 325 Terry Bradshaw 1967 294 Bart Starr 1994 281 Steve Young 1999 280 Kurt Warner 1986 274 Phil Simms 1980 269 Jim Plunkett 2003 255 Peyton Manning 1995 249 Troy Aikman 1999 241 Jeff George 1996 234 Brett Favre 1979 233 Terry Bradshaw 1975 227 Roger Staubach 1976 222 Ken Stabler 2005 217 Ben Roethlisberger 1981 216 Ken Anderson 1983 206 Joe Theismann 1982 205 Joe Theismann 1989 204 John Elway 1995 204 Brett Favre 1984 201 Joe Montana 2004 199 Peyton Manning 1974 197 Terry Bradshaw
What about the worst 30?
1991 -354 Jim Kelly 1980 -288 Ron Jaworski 2000 -287 Jay Fiedler 1996 -272 Drew Bledsoe 1985 -270 Dieter Brock 1995 -258 Neil O'Donnell 1998 -218 Troy Aikman 1980 -216 Tommy Kramer 1990 -214 Jay Schroeder 1970 -212 Craig Morton 1992 -204 Stan Humphries 1983 -202 Gary Danielson 1997 -194 Dan Marino 1995 -183 Scott Mitchell 2001 -181 Brad Johnson 1996 -181 Troy Aikman 1982 -177 Richard Todd 1994 -177 Drew Bledsoe 1986 -174 Jay Schroeder 1996 -174 Elvis Grbac 1969 -173 Joe Namath 1972 -171 Mike Phipps 1991 -170 Todd Marinovich 1995 -170 Jim Kelly 1983 -169 Vince Ferragamo 1980 -167 Brian Sipe 1976 -165 Roger Staubach 1982 -165 Doug Williams 1991 -159 Mark Vlasic 1996 -159 Mike Tomczak
What if we weigh each Super Bowl performance three times, each conference championship game two times, and all other post-season games once? Here are the top 40 seasons.
1989 916 Joe Montana 1988 887 Joe Montana 1992 885 Troy Aikman 1980 809 Jim Plunkett 2003 806 Jake Delhomme 1994 721 Steve Young 1978 712 Terry Bradshaw 1985 707 Jim McMahon 1986 638 Phil Simms 1967 619 Bart Starr 1996 585 Brett Favre 1984 581 Joe Montana 1990 572 Jim Kelly 1968 562 Daryle Lamonica 1999 531 Kurt Warner 1987 511 Doug Williams 1995 504 Troy Aikman 1991 503 Mark Rypien 1979 462 Terry Bradshaw 1976 447 Ken Stabler 1998 439 John Elway 1981 398 Ken Anderson 1977 369 Roger Staubach 1975 365 Terry Bradshaw 2004 356 Tom Brady 1993 355 Jeff Hostetler 1984 328 Dan Marino 1993 307 Troy Aikman 1986 306 John Elway 1975 303 Roger Staubach 1971 296 Roger Staubach 1974 295 Terry Bradshaw 2000 256 Trent Dilfer 1981 255 Joe Montana 1979 248 Vince Ferragamo 1999 241 Jeff George 1968 241 Joe Namath 1969 235 Joe Kapp 1990 235 Jeff Hostetler 1995 225 Brett Favre
And the worst:
1991 -888 Jim Kelly 1996 -668 Drew Bledsoe 1995 -665 Neil O'Donnell 2000 -611 Kerry Collins 1980 -520 Ron Jaworski 1982 -501 Richard Todd 1974 -461 Fran Tarkenton 1970 -453 Craig Morton 1990 -453 Jay Schroeder 1985 -421 Dieter Brock 1989 -334 Jim Everett 1977 -307 Craig Morton 1973 -304 Roger Staubach 1986 -303 Jay Schroeder 1968 -297 Earl Morrall 2000 -287 Jay Fiedler 1994 -283 Stan Humphries 2002 -272 Rich Gannon 1988 -244 Boomer Esiason 1999 -240 Shaun King 2000 -237 Daunte Culpepper 1988 -231 Jim Kelly 1997 -229 Kordell Stewart 1985 -227 Dan Marino 2001 -222 Kordell Stewart 1998 -218 Troy Aikman 1978 -217 Pat Haden 1980 -216 Tommy Kramer 1985 -211 Steve Grogan 1992 -210 Jim Kelly 1978 -207 Dan Pastorini 1992 -204 Stan Humphries 2006 -204 Rex Grossman 1983 -202 Gary Danielson 2003 -197 Donovan McNabb 2000 -196 Rich Gannon 1976 -195 Fran Tarkenton 1997 -194 Dan Marino 1983 -191 Dave Krieg 1996 -187 Kerry Collins
What about the best individual playoff games? Here are the top 40, ranked by their weighted value (i.e., for the round of the post-season the game was in), along with their non-weighted value in the last column:
yr rd att pyd ptd icp RY4.0 AY/A LgAvg WtVal Val Joe Montana 1984 s 35 331 3 0 49 10.31 5.73 629 210 Steve Young 1994 s 36 325 6 0 29 10.69 5.74 622 207 Joe Montana 1989 s 29 297 5 0 7 11.97 5.80 558 186 Kurt Warner 1999 s 45 414 2 0 0 9.64 5.64 540 180 Jim Plunkett 1980 s 21 261 3 0 0 13.86 5.38 534 178 Joe Montana 1988 s 36 357 2 0 0 10.47 5.55 532 177 Terry Bradshaw 1978 s 30 318 4 1 0 10.43 4.69 517 172 Doug Williams 1987 s 29 340 4 1 0 11.55 5.62 516 172 Phil Simms 1986 s 25 268 3 0 13 11.92 5.59 514 171 Jake Delhomme 2003 s 33 323 3 0 0 10.70 5.57 508 169 Troy Aikman 1992 s 30 273 4 0 16 10.43 5.50 492 164 Jim McMahon 1985 s 20 256 0 0 14 12.80 5.58 475 158 Dan Marino 1984 c 32 421 4 1 0 13.00 5.73 465 233 John Elway 1989 c 35 385 3 0 19 11.86 5.80 462 231 Terry Bradshaw 1975 s 19 209 2 0 0 12.05 4.69 420 140 John Elway 1998 s 29 336 1 1 0 10.38 5.79 399 133 Jim Plunkett 1980 c 18 261 2 0 0 15.61 5.38 368 184 Brett Favre 1996 s 27 246 2 0 6 9.85 5.54 367 122 Daryle Lamonica 1968 c 47 401 1 0 0 8.74 4.94 358 179 Joe Montana 1988 c 27 288 3 0 0 11.78 5.55 336 168 Bart Starr 1967 s 24 202 1 0 10 8.83 4.68 329 110 Troy Aikman 1992 c 34 322 2 0 0 10.06 5.50 310 155 Mark Rypien 1991 c 17 228 2 0 0 14.59 5.67 303 152 Joe Kapp 1969 c 13 169 1 0 35 13.77 5.04 297 148 Ken Stabler 1976 s 19 180 1 0 0 10.00 4.86 293 98 Jim Kelly 1990 c 23 300 2 1 4 11.96 5.83 290 145 Peyton Manning 2003 w 26 377 5 0 0 16.42 5.57 282 282 Roger Staubach 1978 s 30 228 3 1 21 7.10 4.69 280 93 Ben Roethlisber.2005 c 29 275 2 0 10 10.17 5.79 274 137 Billy Kilmer 1972 c 18 194 2 0 3 11.89 4.85 259 130 Peyton Manning 2004 w 33 457 4 1 7 13.70 6.07 259 259 Troy Aikman 1995 s 23 209 1 0 0 9.52 5.79 257 86 Chris Chandler 1998 c 43 340 3 0 7 8.60 5.79 256 128 Roger Staubach 1977 s 25 183 1 0 0 7.72 4.31 256 85 Terry Bradshaw 1979 s 21 309 2 3 0 9.24 5.20 255 85 John Elway 1987 c 26 281 3 1 0 10.23 5.62 240 120 Kerry Collins 2000 c 39 381 5 2 0 8.74 5.67 239 120 Mark Rypien 1991 s 33 292 2 1 0 8.09 5.67 239 80 Troy Aikman 1993 c 18 177 3 0 13 11.50 5.59 239 119
And surely more interesting, the worst:
yr rd att pyd ptd icp RY4.0 AY/A LgAvg Val WtVal Kerry Collins 2000 s 39 112 0 4 0 -1.74 5.67 -289 -868 Richard Todd 1982 c 37 103 0 5 0 -3.30 5.46 -324 -648 Jim Kelly 1991 s 58 275 2 4 4 1.98 5.67 -210 -630 Craig Morton 1977 s 15 39 0 4 0 -9.40 4.31 -206 -617 Rich Gannon 2002 s 44 272 2 5 0 1.52 5.74 -186 -557 Drew Bledsoe 1996 s 48 253 2 4 0 1.94 5.54 -173 -519 Neil O'Donnell 1995 s 49 239 1 3 0 2.33 5.79 -170 -509 Dan Pastorini 1978 c 26 96 0 5 0 -4.96 4.69 -251 -502 Jay Schroeder 1990 c 31 150 0 5 17 -2.42 5.83 -239 -478 Billy Kilmer 1972 s 28 104 0 3 10 -1.11 4.85 -157 -470 Fran Tarkenton 1974 s 26 102 0 3 0 -1.27 4.52 -150 -451 Earl Morrall 1968 s 17 71 0 3 0 -3.76 4.94 -148 -444 Daunte Culpepper2000 c 28 78 0 3 2 -2.04 5.67 -214 -428 Jim Everett 1989 c 36 141 0 3 0 0.17 5.80 -203 -405 John Elway 1989 s 26 108 0 2 2 0.69 5.80 -131 -392 Peyton Manning 2003 c 47 237 1 4 0 1.43 5.57 -195 -389 Craig Morton 1970 s 26 127 1 3 0 0.08 4.82 -123 -370 Roger Staubach 1973 c 21 89 0 4 10 -4.33 4.59 -177 -355 Dave Krieg 1983 c 9 12 0 3 0 -13.67 5.63 -174 -347 Daryle Lamonica 1969 c 39 167 0 3 0 0.82 5.04 -165 -329 Donovan McNabb 2003 c 22 100 0 3 2 -1.59 5.57 -155 -311 Ron Jaworski 1980 c 29 91 0 2 0 0.03 5.38 -155 -310 Dieter Brock 1985 c 31 66 0 1 0 0.68 5.58 -152 -304 David Woodley 1982 c 21 87 0 3 14 -2.29 5.46 -149 -297 Bernie Kosar 1989 c 44 210 2 3 14 2.16 5.80 -146 -292 Chris Chandler 1998 s 35 219 1 3 14 2.69 5.79 - 95 -284 Stan Humphries 1992 d 44 140 0 4 6 -0.91 5.50 -276 -276 Pat Haden 1978 c 19 76 0 3 12 -3.11 4.69 -136 -272 Stan Humphries 1994 s 49 275 1 2 0 3.98 5.74 - 86 -259 Jay Schroeder 1986 c 50 195 0 1 0 3.00 5.59 -129 -259 Rich Gannon 2000 c 21 80 0 2 0 -0.48 5.67 -129 -258 Jake Delhomme 2005 c 35 196 1 3 3 2.03 5.79 -129 -257 Jim Kelly 1988 c 30 163 1 3 2 1.27 5.55 -127 -253 Ben Roethlisber.2005 s 21 123 0 2 7 1.57 5.79 - 82 -245 Rex Grossman 2006 s 28 165 1 2 0 3.04 5.82 - 78 -234 Jim Kelly 1991 c 25 117 0 2 1 1.08 5.67 -114 -228 Kurt Warner 1999 c 43 258 1 3 0 3.09 5.64 -110 -219 Troy Aikman 1998 w 49 191 1 3 0 1.35 5.79 -218 -218 Brett Favre 2001 d 44 281 2 6 0 0.70 5.65 -218 -218 Kordell Stewart 2001 c 42 255 0 3 9 2.86 5.65 -108 -217
Two New York QBs top that list with some very memorably bad performances. This is a good example of what I referred to in the opening about dealing with small samples. Obviously Collins went up against one of the best defenses ever; Todd played in awful conditions in a game some have dubbed the Mud Bowl. There should probably be some adjustment for those sort of facts. Shockingly, Mike Phipps' 1972 gem against the Dolphins just barely missed the cut. His five-INT game registered a -171, and that's including his 25 yard rushing bonus.
What about the top QBs in the playoffs, by career? No surprises at the top, although I'm pretty surprised that Young ranks in the top five. Obviously his great SB performance helps quite a bit. Please remember that this list only includes playoff performances from 1967 to 2006. Otto Graham's entire playoff career isn't counted, and only a part of Bart Starr's and other's careers are counted. And of course, Brady, Manning and a few other current guys are missing their 2007 performances.
att value wt 732 Joe Montana 1292 2855 456 Terry Bradshaw 903 1795 502 Troy Aikman 527 1373 471 Steve Young 580 1104 650 John Elway 767 1059 272 Jim Plunkett 373 994 410 Roger Staubach 461 878 351 Ken Stabler 655 860 268 Kurt Warner 422 789 663 Brett Favre 302 755 192 Jake Delhomme 442 685 71 Bart Starr 294 619 486 Tom Brady 230 606 115 Jeff Hostetler 481 590 238 Daryle Lamonica 462 541 166 Ken Anderson 317 498 155 Jim McMahon 158 452 234 Mark Rypien 79 390 211 Joe Theismann 435 372 279 Phil Simms - 38 327 208 Bob Griese 137 318 19 Gary Kubiak 124 285 101 Joe Kapp 162 247 129 Jeff George 224 224 72 Tony Eason 244 211 130 Erik Kramer 177 204 123 Drew Brees 153 201 365 Randall Cunningham 184 191 260 Matt Hasselbeck 153 188 59 Lynn Dickey 185 185 123 Len Dawson 84 170 43 Kelly Holcomb 167 167 135 Trent Dilfer 63 158 32 Rodney Peete 152 152 185 Wade Wilson 129 130 403 Warren Moon 122 122 475 Peyton Manning 293 122 269 Bernie Kosar 121 118 147 Ben Roethlisberger 140 104
And the bottom 40:
att value wt 227 Craig Morton -465 -1005 252 Drew Bledsoe -567 - 969 545 Jim Kelly -247 - 929 158 Jay Schroeder -394 - 773 199 Kerry Collins -179 - 708 228 Stan Humphries -452 - 611 292 Fran Tarkenton -186 - 572 140 Richard Todd -238 - 563 176 Jim Everett -285 - 488 275 Neil O'Donnell -123 - 481 142 Kordell Stewart -280 - 476 123 Pat Haden -310 - 472 307 Mark Brunell -256 - 425 53 Dieter Brock -270 - 421 95 Steve Grogan -194 - 335 270 Ron Jaworski - 59 - 334 240 Rich Gannon 71 - 331 143 Mike Tomczak -300 - 311 419 Donovan McNabb 17 - 304 132 Bill Nelsen -140 - 292 224 Brad Johnson -319 - 283 133 Rex Grossman -129 - 283 110 Jay Fiedler -279 - 279 59 Mike Phipps -274 - 274 81 Pete Beathard -205 - 262 103 Earl Morrall 16 - 257 133 Elvis Grbac -240 - 252 92 Shaun King -154 - 245 52 Gary Cuozzo -156 - 245 54 Scott Mitchell -244 - 244 359 Danny White -219 - 236 282 Dave Krieg - 24 - 207 38 Gary Danielson -202 - 202 197 Jake Plummer -176 - 201 45 George Blanda -141 - 200 102 Bobby Hebert -197 - 197 70 Jon Kitna -193 - 193 178 Billy Kilmer - 4 - 188 28 Jim Zorn - 94 - 182 140 Tommy Kramer -174 - 174
This post has been a large data dump. I leave the comments to you guys, today. Check back Thursday and Friday for some more post-season NFL QB talk.
June 25th, 2008 at 9:04 am
I think I'll have to re-read this. I don't get it!
June 25th, 2008 at 10:25 am
I'm not sure total value really works here. In the regular season all the QBs played the same number of games each year. I would be much more interested in the per game or per attempt rankings.
1-2-3 seems kind of heavy to weight the games. If you want to account for the increasing strength of opponents I can see the value building, but a divisional winner isn't half as good as a conf. chanp or a third as good as the SB champ. Weighting them because the game "matters more" seems to assume their were some QBs that could handle the spotlight of the regular season, playing for their job and paycheck, and of the initial playoff games where a loss ends a season that they worked to further for a full year, but suddenly lost their composure because they were playing for a championship.
June 25th, 2008 at 11:04 am
Hey Bill,
Outside of Jim Kelly's ranking, what's the problem? I'm happy to help.
June 25th, 2008 at 11:09 am
Well shake'n'bake, I think using yards above or below average does a good job of handling the different number of games issue. But I'm not sure -- that's one of the reasons I've avoided analyzing playoff data before. But ex ante, no average QB should be penalized or benefited from playing a bunch of games or not many games. We'd expect, I suppose, really good QBs to benefit from it because they get more games above average, and really bad QBs to be harmed by this. On the other hand, I'm not really sure that's unfair, and in any event, I'm not sure how we're supposed to then compare QBs with different career lengths. I'm pretty comfortable with yards over average as a metric.
As for the weighting issue, I agree with you in terms of predictiveness, but not so in terms of retrodiction. More precisely, people remember Montana's terrific playoff performances because they were in the Super Bowl, and not the first round of the playoffs. To people, that matters. But maybe a smaller weight should be used.
June 25th, 2008 at 11:13 am
Interesting. Elway's 1989 championship game is the 14th best individual game, but his effort in the following Super Bowl is the 15th worst.
June 25th, 2008 at 11:49 am
Where does Marino rank? And why is he so low? I thought his numbers were pretty good for the playoffs. Not great but good enough to be in the top half. Why doesn't he rank higher?
June 25th, 2008 at 11:50 am
Where does Marino rank? And why is he so low? I thought his numbers were pretty good for the playoffs. Not great but good enough to be in the top half.
June 25th, 2008 at 11:57 am
Imagine me looking up at the sky, hands balled into fists and shaking violently while screaming: TODD!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I don't care what conditions the '82 AFC Title game was in...and I certainly don't care that I was only 5 months old at the time...Richard Todd will rot in football hell.
I had a feeling Montana would blow everyone else out of the water with his postseason numbers, especially when they're weighted based on which type of playoff game. His Supe XIX against the Dolphins is probably the greatest all-around performance in playoff history, with 331 yds-3 TDs and 59 rush yds-1 TD. That's 390 total yds and 4 TDs in the Super Bowl, with everyone expecting Dan Marino to steal the show. Awesome.
I've thought this for several years now--shouldn't Daryle Lamonica get SOME Hall of Fame consideration?
June 25th, 2008 at 12:56 pm
Jim Kelly seems to get really penalized for the 1991 Superbowl, only because he threw so many times. Even though he wasn't as bad per pass as many other QBs were.
Maybe there should be some kind of bonus for throwing a lot.
June 25th, 2008 at 1:24 pm
I have complete passing data in excel for the postseason (1933-2007) in this format:
QB, Year, Team, Round, Date, Opponent, Result, Attempts, Completions, Pct., Yards, TDs, INTs, Rating, Rushes, Yards, Rush TDs
If this site needed it, I'd be happy to supply it
June 25th, 2008 at 1:31 pm
Marino comes in at -156, and -170 when weighting his games. I'll try and post the whole table here.
June 25th, 2008 at 1:32 pm
June 25th, 2008 at 1:50 pm
If/when you get the pre-1967 data, I'd expect Bart Starr's name to appear at the top or very close to Montana.
June 25th, 2008 at 1:53 pm
Tom D, I'm not sure it'd be a good idea to give a bonus for a QB that throws a lot. Historically it's meant bad things in the playoffs.
26 times a QB has thrown 50+ passes in a playoff game, and their record is 4-22. The wins are Bernie Kosar vs. the Jets (double OT game), Dan Fouts in the epic in Miami, and Brady's done it twice in two games he looked like he lost with turnovers (Snow Game and Chargers game in San Diego).
If you limit it to 45 attempts, there have been 70 performances, and the record there is 11-59.
June 25th, 2008 at 2:12 pm
I think you'll find from old data that Y.A. Tittle is without question the worst postseason QB in the HOF. An 0-4 record, led his team to 27, 0, 7 and 10 pts, 43.8 comp. %, 4 TDs, 13 INTs, 32.6 rating. And most of his games were from 1961-63, seasons where the league average passing stats were actually better than many of the seasons in the 70's (where Bradshaw, Staubach, Griese, Stabler, etc. had to play in).
It doesn't get much worse than the 1961 NFL-C game against Green Bay. 6/20, 65 yards, 4 picks, 1.0 passer rating, shut out 37-0. He didn't even run forward, finishing with 1 carry for minus-4 yards.
June 25th, 2008 at 5:04 pm
Thanks Chase, this is very interesting. But, like Bill, I agree it's alot to digest. Could you post a list of say the top 10 or so that as you compare their Reg. season ranking against their Post-season ranking, which 10 went up the most and which 10 went down the most. To my of thinking, the 10 that went up the most represent real VALUE to a Team. They were able to "step it up" when Championships were on the line. What else could an owner or a head coach ask for?
June 25th, 2008 at 7:58 pm
Get me some Pepto! I never had any idea Jim Kelly sucked so badly
June 26th, 2008 at 3:53 pm
Bill---Yes and no ("Jim Kelly sucked so badly"). It could have been worse (it was for Dan Marino). Consider this: The Bills and Dolphins each split their Reg. season games in '90, '92, and '95, yet Kelly and the Bills beat Marino and the Dolphins ALL 3 YEARS in the PLAYOFFS. The icing on the cake---the Dolphins had the HIGHER RANKED DEFENSE in both '90 and '92. Plus, Kelly led the Bills to the S.B. in both years. One other thing--Kelly also led them to the S.B. in '91 and '93 and his Defense in both of those years was ranked 27th out of 28 Teams. That should cheer you up a little bit.
June 26th, 2008 at 4:29 pm
I hesitate to go here, Denny, but I'll try.
Do you agree that Jim Kelly's playoff statistics are less impressive than Dan Marino's playoff statistics? If not, I don't see where you're getting your argument.
Now, if you want to argue that we should judge how good of a playoff performer a QB was based on: a) wins (Kelly: 9-8; Marino: 8-10), or b) improvement (or least decline) compared to regular season performance, then maybe I can see your argument for Kelly being a better post-season QB than Marino. That being said, neither of those are convincing to me. We shouldn't judge regular season QBs by wins (Carson Palmer's better than Tarvaris Jackson, e.g.), so we shouldn't judge playoff QBs by wins, either. And two, we shouldn't judge a QB's regular season performances based on expectations versus production, we should judge it based on production. Otherwise we might say Trent Green's a better QB than Troy Aikman, because Green way exceeded expectations as a 6th rounder and Aikman only mildly exceeded expectations as the #1 pick. I don't think we should just post-season performance relative to regular season performance; it should be judged standing alone, IMO.
June 26th, 2008 at 7:16 pm
Chase---Bill's opinion was that Jim Kelly "sucked" in the playoffs, but I proved to him that Kelly at least beat 1 other QB every time he played him in the playoffs, and it happened not just once but 3 times (rather unusual, I think). How many times has this happened-that 1 guy beat the other at least 3 times in the playoffs without losing any ? My other point was that Kelly led the 2 worst defenses ever (ranked 27th out of 28 teams) into 2 S.B.'s. How did Marino do with Defenses ranked 27th--I bet he didn't even lead them into the playoffs, much less the S.B. What was the lowest ranked Defense that Marino led into the playoffs and how did he do that year ? One last thing--for Kelly-in '90 his highest Passer Rating of the 3 games came in the PO game, in '92 his PO game was his 2nd highest Rating. For Marino it was what you would expect-ALL 3 YEARS, his PO game was his WORST Passer Rating. NOBODY had more success and performed better IN THE REGULAR SEASON only to get significantly worse in the Playoffs than Marino. By the way-you had him Ranked 1 for Reg. season, but you failed to give his Ranking in the Post-season----is it around 50 or so ? If so. then he dropped 50 places by your rankings. That's alot.
June 26th, 2008 at 7:46 pm
Chase---I found the answer to my question. Marino led the '97 Dolphins into the PO's, and they were ranked 26th. They got beat in the wildcard round by 17-3 and Dan had a Passer Rating in that game of 29.3 Pretty much what we expected.
June 26th, 2008 at 10:28 pm
I searched for times that a particular QB met the same team 3 or more times in the playoffs, so I may have missed a head to head QB matchup where the opponent had switched teams, but here are some others besides Marino and Kelly.
Brett Favre’s Packers lost 3 straight years to Troy Aikman’s Cowboys (1993-1995). Thus, Favre is a choker.
Bernie Kosar was the starting QB for the Browns in 3 championship game losses against Elway and the Broncos. (1986-1987, 1989). Thus, Kosar is a choker.
It's relatively rare that QB's even match up three times in the playoffs (Stabler and Bradshaw met 5 times). Here are some other notable matchups:
San Fransisco lost in the playoffs three straight years (1995-1997) to the Green Bay Packers. Steve Young was the starting QB for all three games, but only threw 5 passes in the 1996 loss. So you'd probably have to consider Young a choker and worse than Favre, who is also a choker because of his losses to Aikman.
Oh, but this is the only time two quarterbacks squared off a fourth time after one had lost all three previous matchups-- Young managed to un-choke in the fourth matchup and won in 1998 with the last minute touchdown to Owens. So he is no longer a choker.
John Brodie and the 49ers lost three straight playoffs to the Cowboys (1970-1972), but Morton was the quarterback in 1970, Staubach in 1971, and both played in the 1972 game.
Joe Montana and the Niners beat the Giants on the way to the 1984 Super Bowl. Montana then lost his last three starts against the Giants in the playoffs (1985-1986, 1990). Fortunately for Montana, Hostetler started the final game because Simms had gotten hurt, so he will not be considered a choker by losing three straight to the same QB.
June 27th, 2008 at 4:35 am
JKL----There you go. Now when a discussion comes up that concerns those guys, you are prepared. I'm not sure that changes what happened between Kelly and Marino though. I just checked, and Kelly still gets credit for beating Marino 3 times in spite of those other events.
June 27th, 2008 at 5:04 am
"I just checked, and Kelly still gets credit for beating Marino 3 times in spite of those other events"
This is not professional wrestling. So Buffalo gets credit for beating the Dolphins. Marino and Kelly weren't on the field at the same time.
June 28th, 2008 at 9:58 am
ammek----No, you just don't understand the NFL's policy. They choose to give each QB credit for every win and loss of the games that they started. If you disagree with this policy, then take that up with the NFL office. But trust me on this one, Kelly gets credit for 3 wins and Marino gets credit for 3 losses in those 3 playoff games.
December 20th, 2008 at 3:42 am
Where could i get the NFL's ALL TIME PLAYOFF INDIVIDUAL STATS? Please help me with this.