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ShareThisAll-Time NFL QBs: Super Bowl Champions
When people say someone is the best, or worst, Super Bowl champion of all time, you rarely know what they mean. Such a statement could mean that someone was the best QB for the course of his career, and he happened to win a Super Bowl. Think Peyton Manning. Or, it could ask who was the best QB in the season his team happened to win the Super Bowl? Think Mark Rypien or Kurt Warner. Still, it might refer to who had the best post-season run, en route to his team winning the Super Bowl. Someone like Jim Plunkett comes to mind. Finally,the statement might be incredibly literal, meaning he's the best QB to win a Super Bowl, based on his Super Bowl performance. Maybe Doug Williams or Phil Simms.
You'd be surprised how many examples we have of QBs ranking all over the map based on which metric we use. But let's start with a ranking of the regular season performances by all 43 Super Bowl winning QBs. I say 43 and not 42 because I'm going to count Unitas and Morrall as both winning SB V, mostly to avoid an unnecessary sidetrack as to who really deserves the credit. I think it's Morrall, but who cares.
The following is the list of the career values of each QB that has won a Super Bowl, along with the year in which he got his ring. The list is sorted by the regular career value standard, measured against the league average. But I also added in the QB's career value if you measure the guy's career against three-fourths of the league average, as often that better comports with our general feelings about a guy.
Car 3/4Val Year 7946 13229 2006 Peyton Manning 7739 11712 1994 Steve Young 7006 11836 1989 Joe Montana 7006 11836 1984 Joe Montana 7006 11836 1981 Joe Montana 7006 11836 1988 Joe Montana 6211 10616 1970 Johnny Unitas 5680 8169 1971 Roger Staubach 5680 8169 1977 Roger Staubach 5604 8554 1969 Len Dawson 5107 12029 1996 Brett Favre 4123 10064 1997 John Elway 4123 10064 1998 John Elway 4101 7080 1967 Bart Starr 4101 7080 1966 Bart Starr 4004 7278 1999 Kurt Warner 3845 7917 2004 Tom Brady 3845 7917 2003 Tom Brady 3845 7917 2001 Tom Brady 3339 6478 1968 Joe Namath 2919 7299 1993 Troy Aikman 2919 7299 1995 Troy Aikman 2919 7299 1992 Troy Aikman 2799 5924 1978 Terry Bradshaw 2799 5924 1979 Terry Bradshaw 2799 5924 1975 Terry Bradshaw 2799 5924 1974 Terry Bradshaw 2785 5338 1973 Bob Griese 2785 5338 1972 Bob Griese 2723 5059 1970 Earl Morrall 2294 5098 1976 Ken Stabler 2285 4954 1991 Mark Rypien 1992 5409 1982 Joe Theismann 1892 4439 1987 Doug Williams 1840 5969 2002 Brad Johnson 1810 6071 1986 Phil Simms 1359 3849 1985 Jim McMahon 1184 3739 1990 Jeff Hostetler 1153 2992 2005 Ben Roethlisberger 273 3251 1983 Jim Plunkett 273 3251 1980 Jim Plunkett - 875 1382 2007 Eli Manning -1275 1684 2000 Trent Dilfer
So yes, you can say with some solid backing that Trent Dilfer was the worst QB to ever win a Super Bowl (and Eli will pass Dilfer very soon on the 3/4 list; he just doesn't have enough attempts yet). But a couple of number one picks -- Manning and Plunkett -- aren't that far behind him. Eli's a pretty polarizing figure, especially after the Super Bowl, so I'll avoid discussing his career for now. But Jim Plunkett's a guy who had an entirely mediocre career but happened to be the first pick in the draft and win two Super Bowls. Now he happened to play very well in those post-seasons, but as far as regular season QBs go, Plunkett was your definition of average, statistically.
Still, some might argue that we really care about how the quarterbacks performed just in the single year in which they won it all. After all, Tom Brady-2001 certainly isn't the same person as Tom Brady-2007, but this list would treat them the same way. And while Kurt Warner wasn't as good of a quarterback as John Elway, he was probably better than Elway in 1999 than Elway ever was when he won a Super Bowl. In fact, Warner '99 might have been as good as it gets.
Sea Val Year 1490 1999 Kurt Warner 1407 1994 Steve Young 1396 2006 Peyton Manning 1277 1989 Joe Montana 1267 1984 Joe Montana 1257 1991 Mark Rypien 1158 1966 Bart Starr 1144 1971 Roger Staubach 1031 1977 Roger Staubach 985 1976 Ken Stabler 852 1993 Troy Aikman 844 1968 Joe Namath 833 1995 Troy Aikman 713 1992 Troy Aikman 707 1996 Brett Favre 693 1981 Joe Montana 687 1997 John Elway 669 1978 Terry Bradshaw 617 1998 John Elway 596 1979 Terry Bradshaw 583 2004 Tom Brady 583 2005 Ben Roethlisberger 545 2002 Brad Johnson 536 1975 Terry Bradshaw 504 1985 Jim McMahon 503 1988 Joe Montana 419 1982 Joe Theismann 404 2003 Tom Brady 391 1973 Bob Griese 305 1987 Doug Williams 183 1970 Earl Morrall 152 1967 Bart Starr 146 1990 Jeff Hostetler 120 1970 Johnny Unitas 79 2001 Tom Brady 71 1969 Len Dawson 66 1972 Bob Griese 37 1983 Jim Plunkett - 3 1986 Phil Simms - 65 1974 Terry Bradshaw - 66 1980 Jim Plunkett -218 2000 Trent Dilfer -405 2007 Eli Manning
Okay, I guess we have to talk about Eli. He flat out was a below average QB last year, by just about any statistical method. While you'd be correct in saying 'Who cares, Chase, Eli won the Super Bowl" -- well, so did everyone else on this list. Dilfer was actually worse than Manning on a per-attempt basis, but Eli had more than enough attempts to steal that bottom slot from him.
On the positive side, there aren't too many surprises in that top five. Warner, Young, Manning, Montana, Montana. Troy Aikman shows up with three terrific regular seasons that coincided with his SB rings. And Staubach had a couple of monster years when he won his titles. Bart Starr's 1966 is very impressive, too.
But still, the Jim Plunkett and Phil Simms fans can't be happy. They say who cares what they did in the regular season, they were dynamite in the post-season. And they'd be right. Here's a list of the top playoff performances by the QBs.
Post Year 436 1989 Joe Montana 402 1992 Troy Aikman 364 1988 Joe Montana 334 1985 Jim McMahon 325 1978 Terry Bradshaw 294 1967 Bart Starr 281 1994 Steve Young 280 1999 Kurt Warner 274 1986 Phil Simms 269 1980 Jim Plunkett 249 1995 Troy Aikman 234 1996 Brett Favre 233 1979 Terry Bradshaw 222 1976 Ken Stabler 217 2005 Ben Roethlisberger 205 1982 Joe Theismann 201 1984 Joe Montana 197 1974 Terry Bradshaw 192 1991 Mark Rypien 186 1998 John Elway 175 2007 Eli Manning 174 1987 Doug Williams 169 1970 Johnny Unitas 168 1977 Roger Staubach 166 1993 Troy Aikman 161 2000 Trent Dilfer 157 1981 Joe Montana 145 2004 Tom Brady 144 1971 Roger Staubach 139 1969 Len Dawson 126 1997 John Elway 126 1990 Jeff Hostetler 99 1975 Terry Bradshaw 96 1983 Jim Plunkett 87 1968 Joe Namath 81 1973 Bob Griese 55 2003 Tom Brady 45 1972 Bob Griese 30 1970 Earl Morrall 29 2002 Brad Johnson - 5 2001 Tom Brady -140 2006 Peyton Manning
Manning's 2006 playoffs cemented his status as one of the greatest QBs of all time because he finally got his ring -- but it certainly wasn't because of his awe inspiring stats. Manning had the least impressive post-season stat line of any Super Bowl winning QB, ever. (Small note: I excluded Bart Starr's 1966 post-season, since I only have his SB performance data handy.)
Of course, some might argue that while Big Ben had a great playoff run, he needs to be knocked down because of his awful SB performance. Well, here's that list:
Year SB 1984 210 Joe Montana 1994 207 Steve Young 1989 186 Joe Montana 1999 180 Kurt Warner 1980 178 Jim Plunkett 1988 177 Joe Montana 2007 175 Eli Manning 1978 172 Terry Bradshaw 1987 172 Doug Williams 1986 171 Phil Simms 1992 164 Troy Aikman 1985 158 Jim McMahon 1975 140 Terry Bradshaw 1998 133 John Elway 1996 122 Brett Favre 1966 111 Bart Starr 1967 110 Bart Starr 1976 98 Ken Stabler 1995 86 Troy Aikman 1977 85 Roger Staubach 1979 85 Terry Bradshaw 1991 80 Mark Rypien 2003 76 Tom Brady 1968 68 Joe Namath 1974 56 Terry Bradshaw 2004 56 Tom Brady 1971 53 Roger Staubach 1981 50 Joe Montana 1990 45 Jeff Hostetler 1983 41 Jim Plunkett 1973 41 Bob Griese 1970 30 Earl Morrall 1969 21 Len Dawson 2000 21 Trent Dilfer 1993 11 Troy Aikman 2001 2 Tom Brady 2002 1 Brad Johnson 1972 0 Bob Griese 2006 - 9 Peyton Manning 1970 -35 Johnny Unitas 1997 -41 John Elway 1982 -45 Joe Theismann 2005 -82 Ben Roethlisberger
Some interesting results here, as it's pretty tough to defend the Super Bowls of any of the bottom QBs on that list. On the other hand, for all the Eli fans out there, his Super Bowl performance ranked as the 7th best one by any Super Bowl champion.
Finally, here's a table combining all the stats. This might be a good reference for you next time someone wants to argue about the worst QB to ever win a Super Bowl.
Car Sea Post SB Year - 875 -405 175 31 2007 Eli Manning 7946 1396 -140 - 9 2006 Peyton Manning 1153 583 217 -82 2005 Ben Roethlisberger 3845 583 145 56 2004 Tom Brady 3845 404 55 76 2003 Tom Brady 1840 545 29 1 2002 Brad Johnson 3845 79 - 5 2 2001 Tom Brady -1275 -218 161 21 2000 Trent Dilfer 4004 1490 280 180 1999 Kurt Warner 4123 617 186 133 1998 John Elway 4123 687 126 -41 1997 John Elway 5107 707 234 122 1996 Brett Favre 2919 833 249 86 1995 Troy Aikman 7739 1407 281 207 1994 Steve Young 2919 852 166 11 1993 Troy Aikman 2919 713 402 164 1992 Troy Aikman 2285 1257 192 80 1991 Mark Rypien 1184 146 126 45 1990 Jeff Hostetler 7006 1277 436 186 1989 Joe Montana 7006 503 364 177 1988 Joe Montana 1892 305 174 172 1987 Doug Williams 1810 - 3 274 171 1986 Phil Simms 1359 504 334 158 1985 Jim McMahon 7006 1267 201 210 1984 Joe Montana 273 37 96 41 1983 Jim Plunkett 1992 419 205 -45 1982 Joe Theismann 7006 693 157 50 1981 Joe Montana 273 - 66 269 178 1980 Jim Plunkett 2799 596 233 85 1979 Terry Bradshaw 2799 669 325 172 1978 Terry Bradshaw 5680 1031 168 85 1977 Roger Staubach 2294 985 222 98 1976 Ken Stabler 2799 536 99 140 1975 Terry Bradshaw 2799 - 65 197 56 1974 Terry Bradshaw 2785 391 81 41 1973 Bob Griese 2785 66 45 0 1972 Bob Griese 5680 1144 144 53 1971 Roger Staubach 2723 183 30 30 1970 Earl Morrall 6211 120 169 -35 1970 Johnny Unitas 5604 71 139 21 1969 Len Dawson 3339 844 87 68 1968 Joe Namath 4101 152 294 110 1967 Bart Starr 4101 1158 --- 111 1966 Bart Starr
In some ways, Trent Dilfer or Eli Manning were the worst QBs to ever win a Super Bowl. You could make some type of argument that Big Ben was the least deserving SB winning QB of all time. And, believe it or not, you might argue that Peyton Manning did the least to guide his team to post-season success. It all depends on how you word the question.
This entry was posted on Thursday, June 26th, 2008 at 6:31 am and is filed under History, Statgeekery. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.
Peyton Manning did face the #1, #2 and #7 pass defenses in the 2006 SB run. The #2 in the superbowl.
Wow, Montana's 1989 was impressive. On this list, that season has him at the 3rd best Career, the 4th best Season, the 1st best Playoffs, and the 3rd best SB. There are only four seasons on the list that are better than it in any category: Manning '06, Young '94, Warner '99, and Montana '84. The other 38 seasons are worse in every single category (except where Montana ties his own career numbers). The best ever, statistically, has to be one of those five, and with Manning's unspectacular playoff run I don't think it's him.
I created a composite stat that gives each of the four stats equal weight, by normalizing each one (subtracting the mean & dividing by the standard deviation) and adding them together. Interestingly, the four best Super Bowl seasons on this composite are the four mentioned above (excluding Manning). Here are the top 6, with their composite scores:
Joe Montana 1989, 6.72
Steve Young 1994, 6.22
Joe Montana 1984, 4.93
Kurt Warner 1999, 4.35
Joe Montana 1988, 4.35
Troy Aikman 1992, 3.12
More impressiveness from Montana: three of the top 6. If you exclude the career numbers, and only combine the season, postseason, and Super Bowl numbers, these are still the top 6, although the order becomes Montana '89, Young, Warner, Aikman, Montana '84, and Montana '88. And if you also exclude the regular season, the top 4 are still from this list: Montana '89, Aikman, Montana '88, and Young (rounding out the top 10 are Bradshaw '78, McMahon '85, Warner '99, Plunkett '80, Simms '86, and Montana '84).
My hatred of Joe Montana and the SF 49ers has decreased quite a bit in the past 10-15 years, but it's sure easy to see why I had it to begin with.
Their playoff losses to Minnesota (1987) and New York Giants (1990) were good times for me.
This series has been awesome, and I'd love to see something similar with RBs and WRs. Obviously, the methodology would have to change completely, but the results would still be fun.
I wonder if there is an correlation between the greatest SB performances and the relative strengths of the conferences in those years.
For example, in the early/mid 90s, the NFC championship game was considered by pretty much everyone to be the meeting of the best two teams. Steve Young's SB stats reflect this, while Aikman do to a much lesser degree, but that's pretty standard for their careers also.