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ShareThisAV All-franchise teams: AFC North
Just for fun, I decided to use my Approximate Value method to come up with a post-merger all-franchise team for each franchise. I’ll post them by division.
Previous Divisions:
Here are the rules:
1. The AV systems gives a player a score for each player season. To combine these into a career number, I take 100% of the player’s best season, plus 95% of his second-best season, plus 90% of his third-best season, and so on.
2. I’m only comfortable (for now) applying the AV methodology to post-merger seasons. Players who debuted before the merger, however, are included if their post-merger seasons alone merit inclusion. In this case, they have a ‘+’ after their AV score to remind you that their career AV is (probably) higher than the number shown.
3. To avoid 4-3/3-4 issues, I gave each defense 12 players, including two DT/NTs, two DEs, two OLBs, and two ILB/MLBs.
4. Because of the slippery and changing nature of defining what a fullback is, I simply decided to go with two RB/FBs, instead of an RB and an FB.
As with most things AV-related, this series of posts is mostly just for fun, but I’m also curious to hear feedback from long-time followers of the teams about things that look fishy.
Baltimore Ravens
QB Vinny Testaverde 24 RB Jamal Lewis 54 RB Priest Holmes 17 WR Travis Taylor 24 WR Qadry Ismail 22 TE Todd Heap 39 T Jonathan Ogden 100 T Orlando Brown 30 G Edwin Mulitalo 27 G Jeff Blackshear 21 C Mike Flynn 32 DT Kelly Gregg 47 DT Tony Siragusa 33 DE Rob Burnett 48 DE Michael McCrary 47 ILB Ray Lewis 123 ILB Ed Hartwell 26 OLB Peter Boulware 60 OLB Adalius Thomas 52 CB Chris McAlister 72 CB Duane Starks 23 SS Ed Reed 61 FS Rod Woodson 45
Cincinnati Bengals
QB Ken Anderson 121 RB James Brooks 71 RB Corey Dillon 54 WR Chad Johnson 73 WR Isaac Curtis 67 TE Rodney Holman 55 T Anthony Munoz 137 T Willie Anderson 86 G Max Montoya 64 G Dave Lapham 46 C Bob Johnson 50+ DT Tim Krumrie 65 DT Mike Reid 47 DE Eddie Edwards 61 DE Ross Browner 51 ILB Jim LeClair 59 ILB Glenn Cameron 45 OLB Reggie Williams 74 OLB James Francis 44 CB Ken Riley 89+ CB Lemar Parrish 77 SS David Fulcher 52 FS Darryl Williams 30
Cleveland Browns
QB Brian Sipe 74 RB Greg Pruitt 68 RB Mike Pruitt 56 WR Reggie Rucker 46 WR Webster Slaughter 39 TE Ozzie Newsome 81 T Doug Dieken 78 T Cody Risien 64 G Robert E. Jackson 48 G Dan Fike 40 C Tom DeLeone 48 DT Michael Dean Perry 71 DT Jerry Sherk 65 DE Rob Burnett 41 DE Carl Hairston 37 ILB Mike Johnson 47 ILB Dick Ambrose 43 OLB Clay Matthews 90 OLB Charlie Hall 51 CB Hanford Dixon 68 CB Frank Minnifield 64 SS Walt Sumner 31+ FS Thom Darden 55
Pittsburgh Steelers
QB Terry Bradshaw 106 RB Franco Harris 101 RB Jerome Bettis 65 WR John Stallworth 80 WR Hines Ward 72 TE Bennie Cunningham 40 T Larry Brown 68 T Jon Kolb 67+ G Alan Faneca 80 G Sam Davis 48+ C Mike Webster 100 DT Joe Greene 120+ DT Gary Dunn 52 DE L.C. Greenwood 95+ DE Dwight White 65 ILB Jack Lambert 114 ILB Levon Kirkland 71 OLB Jack Ham 119 OLB Greg Lloyd 89 CB Mel Blount 111 CB Rod Woodson 104 SS Donnie Shell 89 FS Glen Edwards 50
This entry was posted on Friday, July 11th, 2008 at 3:52 am and is filed under Approximate Value, General. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.
Another good post, Doug. It's a shame you couldn't use the Approximate Value scale for pre-merger players. I'd love to see Jim Brown's AV score.
Cincinatti, for all its historical troubles, has been blessed by the QB gods. Anderson, Esiason, Palmer have been terrific; and who knows what would have become of Greg Cook.
But man, Brian Sipe for Clevleand? Obviously Graham couldn't make this list, but it highlights how poor Cleveland QBs have been since Graham and Plum. Only four QBs -- Sipe in '78 and '80, and Kosar in '86 and '87 -- had over 500 net adjusted yards above the league average. According to the best QB ever posts, Kosar ranked 53rd and Sipe 64th. Graham ranked 14th.
So Ben Riley had more AV than Stallworth or Swann. Why isn't he in the HoF?
oops, make that Ken Riley...
James Francis over Brian Simmons?! I'm assuming the AV ratings system is easily escalated by sacks. That's the only way that pick could possibly be justified. Simmons was a superior player to Francis. But Simmons NEVER rushed the passer. a
Sacks play some role, but not a major one, viva. Francis had 33 sacks in his career and Simmons had 24, so it's not a big difference anyway.
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Francis was an OLB and Simmons was an ILB, so they weren't competing against each other in this particular all-Bengals team, but Francis does out-AV Simmons 44 to 41. That's basically a tie; career differences of 3 points of AV are NEVER a basis for declaring one guy better than another. It's just not that precise a tool.
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Essentially, AV says: "I can't tell the difference between these two guys. They both started for a number of years, so they must have been reasonably decent, but there is nothing in the objective records that indicates that either one ever did anything particularly noteworthy."
Doug -
I took a look at the AV and understand much better now. I guess I should have read the damn thing before shooting off my mouth. But as a long-suffering Bengals fan, I have a deep resentment for those Bengals' early 90's defensive draft busts like Francis.
And just for the record, though he was listed as a MLB, Simmons often played outside, especially during his early years, during the the Coslet/LeBeau era. Though he never rushed the passer, LeBeau used him often in pass coverage. Francis, however, was strictly a pass rusher, and often lined up as a DE in pass situations. The fact that he has only 11 more sacks than Simmons goes a long way in showing that he wasn't much of a pass rusher to begin with. Not that the AV cares one way or another... but screw James Francis.
How are you deciding to list the safeties? Did a player have to play a majority their career at either free or strong to be listed there. Did Glen Edwards have more AV points than Mike Wagner? Wagner was paired with both Edwards and Shell during his career. I assume Carnell Lake wasn't listed because he didn't play free safety for Pittsburgh even though he made your Top 200 list. Did you consider just listing the two safeties with the most AV points?
Don't be shy, tell us how you really feel, Vivaknievel! LOL
Vinny Testaverde, best QB in Ravens' history with 24 points. That's a huge statement on so many levels.
^LOL Yeah. Baltimore has had some pretty crappy quarterbacking since they've been around. Testaverde only played with them for two seasons yet he still tops the list.
I assume Vinny's 24 on the ravens is going to be the lowest franchise QB... yes? I know the ravens haven't been around that long, and they've been a defensive team, but 24 for QB, and 22 and 24 for WR? That stings
Texans and David Carr should give it a good run for it's money.
I wouldn't be surprised if the Chicago Bears have failed to have a QB rack up 24 AV points in a Bears uniform since the merger.
Out of curiosity, how did Jerome Bettis end up with such a low AV? An AV of 65 seems a bit low for a guy who had over 11k YFS in 10 seasons and averaged over 1000 yards rushing and 8 TDs during that time period. He had 6 consecutive 1000-yard seasons, and once he wasn't able to carry the load entirely, he became an extremely efficient goal line/short yardage back. He also made 4 Pro Bowls and was a 1st-team All-Pro during that span.
Compare that with Greg Pruitt, who somehow had an AV of 68 (3 points higher). Pruitt had 4 seasons where he had between 900 and 1100 yards rushing, finished his career with nearly 2x as many fumbles as TDs (83 fumbles, 45 TDs, vs. 94 TDs/41 fumbles for the Bus). He made 4 Pro Bowls, twice as a returner. He played 9 seasons with the Browns and had 5000 less yards rushing and 1/3 as many TDs.
No comprende usted. His AV was higher, yet he performed noticeably worse and he did it over a shorter period of tie. How's that work?
Hurm....a few more.
1) John L. Williams, Seattle - AV of 74. Stats with Seattle - 4000 LESS YFS than Bus, 47 LESS TDs than the Bus, 2 Pro Bowls, 0 All-Pro's
2) Ahman Green - AV of 75. 7 seasons with GB, 4 Pro Bowl appearances, 0 All-Pros. 2000 less yards rushing, less YFS, > 1 dozen less TDs, yet his AV was 10 higher despite playing less seasons and producing less.
I don't get how RBs who average less rushing yards, less TDs, more fumbles, and have less All-Pro/Pro-Bowl selections are getting higher scores, especially since their lower averages are over shorter time periods.
Rob,
First let me say that it could well be that Bettis is underrated by AV. Also, AV is, as it says in the name, not meant to be a precise measurement. If my only goal was to rank Bettis vs. Green vs. Pruitt vs. John L, I wouldn't use AV.
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All that said, it's a good exercise to figure out exactly why he ranks where he does.
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I think it's pretty clear that Ahman Green's Packer years are worthy of a higher score than Bettis's Steeler years. Let's look at yards from scrimmage. Here are Green and Bettis:
Green 2250 1981 1734 1633 1438 1432 402
Bettis 1775 1553 1438 1275 1201 1120 987 897 723 408
Green's best years were much, much better than Bettis's best years, and Bettis's seasons on the tail end just don't make up the difference. Remember, the system I'm using counts the player's best seasons more heavily than the others. I.e. I've chosen to emphasize peak value a little more than compiling. You may or may not agree with that choice, but in this case I think it turned out right.
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With Pruitt and John L., it's much less clear, and I'm not nearly as sure that I agree with AV. But let's try to figure out why it turned out like it did.
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First, Pruitt's time with the Browns included many 14-game seasons, and it was generally a time of lower offense. So the difference between their yardage totals isn't as meaningful as it appears. In terms of yards-from-scrimmage per game, it's Bettis 78 and Pruitt 72. Not too far off.
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AV includes a penalty/bonus for yards-per-rush. Pruitt's was very good. Bettis's was, for a top RB, bad. The YPR bonus/penalty is a pretty minor part of the formula, but when you have two semi-extreme cases like this added up over a number of years, it adds up. (Again, I'm not necessarily trying to defend AV's choice. I'm just explaining it.)
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Pruitt picks up a couple of points for his return skills.
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Pruitt played with fewer pro bowl and all-pro linemen than Bettis did. Bettis had a pro bowler on his O-line in 8 out of his 10 years with Pittsburgh. Pruitt played with a pro bowl lineman in Cleveland during only two seasons. Given two equal offensive teams, AV will give fewer points to the skill players on the team with more decorated linemen.
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Which brings us to John L. He never played with a single pro bowl lineman during his time in Seattle. AV is supposed to be set up so that you can get points for being the entire offense on a bad (offensive) team, or for being a smaller part of a good team. John L was definitely the former.
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Also, John L gets a few points for being an FB instead of an RB, on the assumption (not incorrect, in his case) that he was doing some nontrivial amount of blocking.
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John L also averaged 72 YFS per game, which is very close to Bettis's 78. Just as with Pruitt, there are a bunch of little things that, in AV's eyes, make up the difference.
Because I'm a homer:
It's interesting to see to Syracuse Alums on the Raven's team, and I wouldn't have thought Burnett would make both Baltimore's and Cleveland's squads! What college has the most players on which teams?