AV All-franchise teams: NFC North
Posted by Doug on July 17, 2008
Just for fun, I decided to use my Approximate Value method to come up with a post-merger all-franchise team for each franchise. I’ll post them by division.
Previous Divisions:
NFC West
NFC South
AFC North
AFC East
Here are the rules:
1. The AV systems gives a player a score for each player season. To combine these into a career number, I take 100% of the player’s best season, plus 95% of his second-best season, plus 90% of his third-best season, and so on.
2. I’m only comfortable (for now) applying the AV methodology to post-merger seasons. Players who debuted before the merger, however, are included if their post-merger seasons alone merit inclusion. In this case, they have a ‘+’ after their AV score to remind you that their career AV is (probably) higher than the number shown.
3. To avoid 4-3/3-4 issues, I gave each defense 12 players, including two DT/NTs, two DEs, two OLBs, and two ILB/MLBs.
4. Because of the slippery and changing nature of defining what a fullback is, I simply decided to go with two RB/FBs, instead of an RB and an FB.
As with most things AV-related, this series of posts is mostly just for fun, but I’m also curious to hear feedback from long-time followers of the teams about things that look fishy.
Chicago Bears
QB Jim Harbaugh 43 QB Jim McMahon 43 RB Walter Payton 127 RB Neal Anderson 60 WR Curtis Conway 38 WR James Scott 34 TE Emery Moorehead 34 T Keith Van Horne 63 T Jimbo Covert 58 T James O. Williams 58 G Mark Bortz 52 G Tom Thayer 41 C Jay Hilgenberg 68 DT Steve McMichael 97 DT Jim Osborne 72 DE Dan Hampton 104 DE Richard Dent 95 ILB Mike Singletary 124 ILB Brian Urlacher 92 OLB Lance Briggs 56 OLB Otis Wilson 54 CB Donnell Woolford 44 CB Allan Ellis 40 CB Terry Schmidt 40 CB Mike Richardson 40 SS Gary Fencik 78 FS Mark A. Carrier 51
Detroit Lions
QB Greg Landry 70+ RB Barry Sanders 122 RB Billy Sims 57 WR Herman Moore 81 WR Johnnie Morton 52 WR Brett Perriman 52 TE Charlie Sanders 60+ T Lomas Brown 80 T Rocky Freitas 66+ G Bob Kowalkowski 41+ G Homer Elias 34 C Kevin Glover 56 DT Doug English 71 DT Luther Elliss 50 DE Robert Porcher 67 DE William Gay 50 ILB Chris Spielman 66 ILB Ken Fantetti 41 OLB Paul Naumoff 60+ OLB Charlie Weaver 55 CB Lem Barney 66+ CB James Hunter 41 SS Mike Weger 29+ FS Bennie Blades 46
Green Bay Packers
QB Brett Favre 147 RB Ahman Green 75 RB John Brockington 50 WR James Lofton 78 WR Sterling Sharpe 67 TE Paul Coffman 49 T Ken Ruettgers 55 T Greg Koch 51 G Marco Rivera 47 G Ron Hallstrom 40 C Frank Winters 52 DT Mike McCoy 50 DT Santana Dotson 41 DE Reggie White 83 DE Sweeny Williams 52 ILB Jim Carter 48 ILB Brian Noble 45 OLB Fred Carr 66+ OLB John Anderson 59 CB Ken Ellis 59 CB Willie Buchanon 55 SS LeRoy Butler 87 FS Darren Sharper 55
Minnesota Vikings
QB Daunte Culpepper 80
Tarkenton has 77. Two things: (1) It seems clear that AV overrates running QBs. I need to do something about that, but I'm not sure what. (2) as of 2008, Culpepper seems like a joke. But don't forget that he posted some really unbelievable statistical seasons. I'm not saying I agree with Culpepper over Tarkenton, but remember, AV only looks at the objective record. For all his faults, Culpepper still looks pretty good on that score.
RB Chuck Foreman 80 RB Robert Smith 61 WR Cris Carter 92 WR Randy Moss 85 TE Steve Jordan 67 T Ron Yary 116+ T Tim Irwin 68 G Randall McDaniel 97 G David Dixon 51 C Matt Birk 54 DT Alan Page 120+ DT John Randle 97 DE Carl Eller 102+ DE Chris Doleman 93 ILB Jeff Siemon 72 ILB Scott Studwell 69 OLB Matt Blair 75 OLB Wally Hilgenberg 67+ CB Carl Lee 66 CB Bobby Bryant 66+ SS Joey Browner 74 FS Paul Krause 87+
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July 17th, 2008 at 8:07 am
Two notes.
1) W/r/t Tarkenton/Culpepper, don't forget that six of Tarkenton's seasons with the Vikings don't count.
2) I'm a bit surprised that Payton edged out Sanders.
July 17th, 2008 at 8:31 am
Oh yeah. I just looked at the MINs after 1970, then saw a bunch of NYGs before that, and forgot that there were another bunch of MINs before that.
.
RE: Payton v. Sanders, it's the usual thing. Sanders entire career vs. Payton's 10 best seasons is a slight edge to Barry, but not enough of an edge to make up for Payton's three worst seasons vs. Sanders' nothing. It's a close call, and I certainly wouldn't have been concerned had it come out the other way.
July 17th, 2008 at 8:35 am
Here are Sanders' and Payton's AVs lined up from best to worst (not chronologically):
July 17th, 2008 at 8:58 am
If AV overvalues running QBs, then it's not as if that gives Daunte a huge edge over Fran (though Tarkenton was, admittedly, not as good a runner in his second stint with the Vikings).
July 17th, 2008 at 9:27 am
Here's a look at Culpepper v. Tarkenton, for all their years as Vikings. I'm using the league average as my baseline, and giving bonuses for rushing data and penalties for sack data (but only for Tarkenton's post-1968 numbers):
July 17th, 2008 at 9:45 am
boy, the Bears have had REALLY bad QB's and WR's since 1970--and it's not changing this year, either.
July 17th, 2008 at 10:10 am
Joseph,
Here's a list of all Bears QBs to *ever* have over 100 adjusted yards above average in a season. Note: Gaining 100 adjusted yards above average isn't incredibly hard, and can be achieved on a small number of attempts (i.e., 100 attempts of 6.00 ANY/A when the league average is 5.00 ANY/A is 100 adjusted yards above average). As such, a QB who isn't the team's primary starter has a chance to get 100 adjusted net yards above average. But not many Bears QBs have ever done that.
July 17th, 2008 at 10:13 am
Bears QBs that were 400 yards *below* average:
July 17th, 2008 at 12:32 pm
I'd be curious at some point to see each team's all-time best averages (maybe for offense, defense, and team overall). The Vikes have 3 players at 100+ and another 4 at 90+ (the Bears also have 3 at 100+ and another 3 at 90+). The Steelers have a whopping 8 at 100+, plus another at 90+ and two more at 89 (their all-time defense is, uh, pretty good). In any event, seeing a team's all-time averages would (to me) be interesting.
July 17th, 2008 at 2:02 pm
James Scott over Willie Gault for the Bears?
July 17th, 2008 at 2:09 pm
Scott,
James Scott edged out Willie Gault by one point. I just went back to look at the stats to see if I agreed with it. I decided it would probably be most appropriate to just leave that slot vacant.
July 17th, 2008 at 6:43 pm
how does favre have a 147 he is the most overrated athlete EVER!!! He had a couple great seasons but alot of really bads ones. there is no way he is even in the top 20 alltime QBs list. All of his good season can be explained by luck and the people around him.
July 18th, 2008 at 8:58 pm
A brief comparison between the seasons of every Bears QB ever and Peyton Manning:
(Manning - Bears)
4000 yards passing: 8 - 0
3700 yards passing: 10 - 1
30 passing TDs: 4 - 0
26 passing TDs: 10 - 2
30 sacks: 0 - 8
20 sacks: 5 - 31
16 starts in a season: 10 - 4
Full season of starts (since 1960): 10 - 8
*Cries*
July 19th, 2008 at 12:36 am
I wonder if any other team has ever had 3 QBs with -300 adjusted yards in the same season. Man, the Bears in '04 had some truly terrible quarterbacking.
July 21st, 2008 at 12:51 am
"boy, the Bears have had REALLY bad QB’s and WR’s since 1970"
Not too many good QBs before that, either.
July 21st, 2008 at 11:31 pm
The Bears had four, nearly five starting qb's in 2004.
How close is Marty Booker to getting the second receiver spot for Chicago?