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For more from Chase and Jason, check out their work at Football Perspective and The Big Lead.
Checkdowns: Colts offense uniquely successful
With the AFC Championship game just an hour away from starting, here's a stat I bet you haven't heard all week: the Colts set the NFL record this season for most passing first downs gained minus rushing first downs gained. Below are all the teams in league history to average eight more passing first downs than rushing first downs per game, along with their regular and post-season records:
| tm | year | fdp | fdrsh | diff/g | win | loss | tie | pw | pl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IND | 2009 | 241 | 69 | 10.75 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| SDG | 1985 | 259 | 92 | 10.44 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| ARI | 2005 | 224 | 58 | 10.38 | 5 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| MIA | 1986 | 250 | 84 | 10.38 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| NWE | 1994 | 243 | 83 | 10.00 | 10 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| ARI | 2008 | 231 | 72 | 9.94 | 9 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 1 |
| DET | 2006 | 208 | 53 | 9.69 | 3 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| ATL | 1994 | 218 | 63 | 9.69 | 7 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| HOU | 1990 | 251 | 97 | 9.63 | 9 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| GNB | 1995 | 235 | 84 | 9.44 | 11 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
| IND | 2004 | 238 | 94 | 9.00 | 12 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| ARI | 1996 | 214 | 70 | 9.00 | 7 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| STL | 2002 | 219 | 76 | 8.94 | 7 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| SDG | 2009 | 222 | 80 | 8.88 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| GNB | 2007 | 210 | 69 | 8.81 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| MIA | 1988 | 218 | 77 | 8.81 | 6 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| OAK | 1964 | 186 | 63 | 8.79 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| IND | 2008 | 220 | 80 | 8.75 | 12 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| ARI | 2007 | 210 | 70 | 8.75 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| DET | 1995 | 230 | 91 | 8.69 | 10 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| HOU | 2009 | 231 | 93 | 8.63 | 9 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| ARI | 2009 | 215 | 77 | 8.63 | 10 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| NOR | 2007 | 232 | 94 | 8.63 | 7 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| CAR | 2000 | 201 | 63 | 8.63 | 7 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| SDG | 1980 | 244 | 106 | 8.63 | 11 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| HOU | 1991 | 236 | 99 | 8.56 | 11 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| STL | 2000 | 247 | 112 | 8.44 | 10 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| ATL | 1996 | 202 | 67 | 8.44 | 3 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| DAL | 2007 | 217 | 83 | 8.38 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| SDG | 1984 | 240 | 106 | 8.38 | 7 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| CIN | 2007 | 213 | 81 | 8.25 | 7 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| STL | 2001 | 236 | 104 | 8.25 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
| MIN | 1995 | 223 | 91 | 8.25 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| ATL | 1995 | 216 | 85 | 8.19 | 9 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| DET | 2007 | 203 | 73 | 8.13 | 7 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| GNB | 2005 | 206 | 76 | 8.13 | 4 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| GNB | 2004 | 228 | 98 | 8.13 | 10 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| CAR | 1999 | 208 | 78 | 8.13 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| SDG | 1982 | 145 | 72 | 8.11 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| NOR | 2008 | 232 | 103 | 8.06 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| IND | 2006 | 241 | 112 | 8.06 | 12 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
| STL | 2007 | 193 | 65 | 8.00 | 3 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| BUF | 2002 | 218 | 90 | 8.00 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| MIA | 1984 | 243 | 115 | 8.00 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
| SFO | 1982 | 121 | 49 | 8.00 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Few teams have ever used the passing game to move the chains like the Colts under Manning's reign. This year, the Colts took things to a new extreme, becoming the first team to ever gain 170 more first downs through the air than on the ground.
Their opponent in the AFC championship game? The only team in the NFL this season with more rushing first downs than passing first downs.
| tm | year | fdp | fdrsh | diff/g |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| IND | 2009 | 241 | 69 | 172 |
| SDG | 2009 | 222 | 80 | 142 |
| HOU | 2009 | 231 | 93 | 138 |
| ARI | 2009 | 215 | 77 | 138 |
| MIN | 2009 | 220 | 99 | 121 |
| WAS | 2009 | 191 | 72 | 119 |
| PIT | 2009 | 210 | 96 | 114 |
| NWE | 2009 | 222 | 114 | 108 |
| SEA | 2009 | 184 | 80 | 104 |
| NOR | 2009 | 215 | 115 | 100 |
| CHI | 2009 | 170 | 71 | 99 |
| GNB | 2009 | 201 | 102 | 99 |
| PHI | 2009 | 182 | 87 | 95 |
| DAL | 2009 | 203 | 110 | 93 |
| NYG | 2009 | 194 | 103 | 91 |
| DEN | 2009 | 186 | 95 | 91 |
| ATL | 2009 | 192 | 105 | 87 |
| DET | 2009 | 168 | 82 | 86 |
| STL | 2009 | 159 | 79 | 80 |
| BAL | 2009 | 187 | 115 | 72 |
| TAM | 2009 | 148 | 80 | 68 |
| SFO | 2009 | 137 | 77 | 60 |
| MIA | 2009 | 188 | 129 | 59 |
| JAX | 2009 | 170 | 114 | 56 |
| CIN | 2009 | 159 | 109 | 50 |
| OAK | 2009 | 131 | 81 | 50 |
| KAN | 2009 | 139 | 91 | 48 |
| BUF | 2009 | 126 | 81 | 45 |
| TEN | 2009 | 154 | 115 | 39 |
| CAR | 2009 | 152 | 123 | 29 |
| CLE | 2009 | 118 | 102 | 16 |
| NYJ | 2009 | 131 | 132 | -1 |
The 2009 Jets are pretty unusual in their own right; in modern times, nearly every team gains more passing first downs than rushing first downs. The table below shows the percentage of teams in the NFL each season that gained more first downs via the pass than via the run:
| year | perc |
|---|---|
| 2009 | 97 |
| 2008 | 100 |
| 2007 | 100 |
| 2006 | 97 |
| 2005 | 100 |
| 2004 | 97 |
| 2003 | 100 |
| 2002 | 100 |
| 2001 | 97 |
| 2000 | 97 |
| 1999 | 100 |
| 1998 | 100 |
| 1997 | 100 |
| 1996 | 100 |
| 1995 | 100 |
| 1994 | 100 |
| 1993 | 100 |
| 1992 | 95 |
| 1991 | 100 |
| 1990 | 96 |
| 1989 | 100 |
| 1988 | 89 |
| 1987 | 100 |
| 1986 | 89 |
| 1985 | 89 |
| 1984 | 93 |
| 1983 | 89 |
| 1982 | 89 |
| 1981 | 80 |
| 1980 | 88 |
| 1979 | 75 |
| 1978 | 57 |
| 1977 | 57 |
| 1976 | 54 |
| 1975 | 56 |
| 1974 | 58 |
| 1973 | 42 |
| 1972 | 50 |
| 1971 | 77 |
| 1970 | 77 |
| 1969 | 85 |
| 1968 | 77 |
| 1967 | 76 |
| 1966 | 92 |
| 1965 | 82 |
| 1964 | 82 |
| 1963 | 93 |
| 1962 | 84 |
| 1961 | 95 |
| 1960 | 76 |
| 1959 | 50 |
| 1958 | 67 |
| 1957 | 58 |
| 1956 | 38 |
| 1955 | 25 |
| 1954 | 75 |
| 1953 | 42 |
| 1952 | 58 |
| 1951 | 42 |
| 1950 | 38 |
This entry was posted on Sunday, January 24th, 2010 at 1:30 pm and is filed under Checkdowns. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.

That's all regular season stats, though. Will that also hold in the playoffs? The Colts are now up against the No. 1 Defense. Defense wins championships. End of story. The Jets Defense will force 2 Int's and beat the Colts and move on to the S.B. Defense wins championships, and the Jets have had the better Defense this year.(Plus, they have run the ball better all year-that's all you have to know)-it's a no-brainer).
Chase, that first post was somewhat tongue-in-cheek. But, you only have to go back to 1999-Kurt Warner and the Rams, and you will see what a superior passing game with no running game and a suspect defense (they gave up 37 points in their 1st PO game that year), can do in the playoffs. But, it takes a truly superior passing game to pull it off. Kurt Warner was leading just that-a truly superior passing game that year and it paid off in a championship for him and the Rams. No other QB has matched that-yet.
Chase, one last comment-keep in mind though, that today we are talking about Peyton Manning. He has been compared to Dan Marino for a reason-Marino is the only "great" QB that has a losing record in the playoffs-8-10, but a loss today would make Manning's record 8-9. Neither one has been able to get it done consistently in the playoffs-and neither one has played consistently like a great QB either.
A little off-topic, but the Saints game just ended, and that does it. I've dropped Favre out of my Top 5. Any QB that can't lead his team to at least 3 Super Bowls does not belong in my Top 5.
Give it a rest, Bob.
Wierd that the second place team was in such an aweful year for passing (1985)
So Favre should take the hit for his teammates' putting on the ground however many times? Man, that was painful to watch. I wanted better for him, even if from a team perspective it's a better story that New Orleans won. That said, I'd be happier either way if it hadn't been such an ugly game. If it would have been fairly clean and Favre lost, he would have a much easier time living with it than this monstrosity, as would we all.
It. Putting IT on the ground. Sheesh...
The best stat yesterday was "Minnesota has a 4 game losing streak in conference championships dating back to their last Super Bowl appearence".
Almost as funny as the bad pass that made it 5.
Defense wins championships. End of story.
As Casey Stengel used to say: "Great pitching beats great hitting, and vice versa."
I just found another reason to knock Favre out of my Top 5-that game on Sunday was the 9th PO game that he had at least 2 Int's, and that 2nd Int. really hurts a teams chance of winning the game-it takes the chance to well below 50% (actually-31%). The only QB that I can find that was worse was Dan Marino with 10 such games-but he isn't in my Top 5 either.
Uh yeah, we don't care either way. Plenty of winning QBs have worse career post-season numbers, but multiple rings. So much for your theories.
If not worse, very comparable. I don't care where you rank him, but your reasoning is flawed.
I agree with the writer! I love the system that both teams use but the Colts are more offensive minded. They think pass first run second! They spread out defenses and then they run the football. So they keep opposing defenses guessing! If I was the coach I would beat their recievers up and hit Manning over and over again because I could not allow them to spread me out like the way they did the Jets and the Ravens!
Wanted to comment on the historical stats for run vs pass first downs. Looks like the change to every team gaining more passing than running first downs coincided with free agency. Interesting.