Usain Bolt and NFL combine 40 times
Posted by Doug on Thursday, August 21, 2008
Let me preface this by saying that almost every single word of what I'm about to write could potentially be incorrect. I don't really know what I'm talking about. Possibly the most reliable source I've used here is Wikipedia, if that tells you anything.
But you guys will help correct me if I say something really stupid, right?
It all starts with a message board post from a guy I don't know that I saw linked from another message board.
Usain Bolt's splits during the Olympic 100m race
RT 0.165 10m 1.85 20m 2.87 (1.02) 30m 3.78 (0.91) 40m 4.65 (0.87) 50m 5.50 (0.85) 60m 6.32 (0.82) 70m 7.14 (0.82) 80m 7.96 (0.82) 90m 8.79 (0.83) 100m 9.69 (0.90)
30m is 32.8084 yards. So he needs to cover 7.1916 more yards from there.
He ran from 30m to 40m in .87 seconds, or .087 seconds per meter, or .0795528 seconds per yard. But he wasn't at top speed yet. So the first 7 yards of that would have been slightly slower than the average of the full ten meters, but faster than the .0832 seconds per yard at which he ran from meter 20 to meter 30. So let's say he averaged a nice round .08 seconds per yard. Multiply that by 7.1916 and you get .575. Add that to his 30m split and you're at 4.35 or 4.36.
So unless I've done something wrong, we have the following:
At 40 yards of the actual Olympic 100m race, Bolt was at 4.35 or 4.36
But wait...
His reaction time was .165. My understanding is that the combine 40 is timed from the runner's actual start rather than from a gun. So if this were in an NFL combine setting, that reaction time would be gone and he'd be at 4.19.
But wait...
There are no starting blocks at the NFL combine. And my understanding is that this particular Olympic track is the fastest around. Those two things would push his NFL combine time up over 4.2, maybe up to 4.25 or even 4.3.
But wait...
If he were training specifically for the 40, he might be able to do some things somewhat differently to shave a few hundredths off.
I hereby declare that Bolt would run a 4.22 at the combine.
Chris Johnson ran a 4.24 at this year's combine. Does that make my Bolt estimate seem too high? Or does it mean that the timing at the combine is inexact or inconsistent or just plain generous? Could be either one --- or both --- but I'm not totally sure the two figures are incompatible. It was around the halfway point that Bolt really blew everyone else away; I don't even think he was leading at 40 yards. So it's not clear to me that Chris Johnson couldn't hang close to him for 40 yards.
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of course C Johnson could hang close to him for 40 yards. Top speed in the 100m isn't reached until the 50-60m point and per your numbers that's when Bolt topped out. The two keys to a top 100m are reaching top speed asap and holding it as long as possible. So while CJ could hang for 40 I'd wager his top speed wouldn't be as fast as Bolts and that he wouldn't maintain it as long.
Posted on 21-Aug-08 at 4:37 am | PermalinkAccording to Wikipedia, two hand-held and one electronic time are provided by the NFL per run, and each player can run twice. Let's assume we are reading an average of these 3 times for the faster of the two runs.
The fastest anyone can react to any stimulus is about .15 seconds. This says to me that any hand-timed time has to have an uncertainty of .3 seconds associated with it. We'll be generous and say the electronically timed time is totally accurate and has no uncertainty.
Now, I don't entirely remember my college physics, but if you average 3 numbers, two of which have an uncertainty of roughly .3/4.5 ~= 6% and one of which has no uncertainty, you end up with a number which has an uncertainty of around 12%, which means that for any useful purposes there is absolutely no difference between a guy who ran a 4.2 and a guy who ran a 4.6. You just can't say with any certainty that even on that particular run did one of them run faster than the other.
In other words, it's completely plausible that a runner at the NFL combine will be TIMED as being as fast as Usain Bolt running a world record 100 meter dash. Whether that means that Chris Johnson actually IS as fast as Usain Bolt, sadly we do not have any where near enough accurate information to say.
But if I had to put money on it, my money would be on Bolt. I watched the combine, and I watched the Olympics, and I could _definitely_ tell that Bolt was going faster than the guys at the combine.
Posted on 21-Aug-08 at 6:25 am | PermalinkYeah I'm with Gregg Easterbrook (TMQ on ESPN) about the absurdity of measurements in the hundredths of seconds
Posted on 21-Aug-08 at 6:36 am | PermalinkAt Bolts speed 1/100th of a second is 3 inches. I think that's a meaningful distance. If you were to just go to tenths, a sprinter could be beaten by over two feet (.09sec*300inches per second=27inches) and have the same time.
Posted on 21-Aug-08 at 7:04 am | PermalinkDan, I think the point isn't so much that hundredths of seconds are absurd, as it is that hundredths of seconds are absurd for evaluating comparative speeds of NFL prospects, and changing the judgement of a player because he ran a 4.42 instead of a 4.47.
Hundredths of seconds are real, legitimate periods of time. It's just that they are meaningless for comparing NFL players. Timing a player in shorts in a straight line is a nice way to estimate a player's speed, but it doesn't give us a clear picture of his football speed (wearing pads, shedding blockers, etc.)
Posted on 21-Aug-08 at 10:11 am | PermalinkI agree with Richie's point. How many plays in football involve a player running a straight line, wearing shorts and a t-shirt and nobody trying to slow them down? And yet, this is, in the eyes of many scouts, one of the most important tests of a player's ability.
This explains why so many Pro-Bowl players are picked up in the third and fourth rounds and why so many first round picks are busts.
Posted on 21-Aug-08 at 10:30 am | PermalinkFirst-rounders are only "busts" because they have higher expectations. Nobody labels a failed 4th-round pick as a "bust." In general, first-round picks still fare better than 2nd-rounders, who fare better than 3rd-rounders, etc.
Not that that's got anything to do with the article, mind you...
Posted on 21-Aug-08 at 4:13 pm | PermalinkJust a small point about the error in measuring with a stopwatch. I don't think you'd expect it to be off by as much as 0.3 seconds.
The reaction time at the start could have .15 seconds perhaps, but for the end, they're not reacting -- they're anticipating. Try and stop a stopwatch at exactly 10 seconds -- You don't wait for it to hit 10 and then hit the button. You're watching a guy run for a finish line, you time your button pressing to his running, and you can get a heck of a lot closer than .15 seconds on average.
Has anybody actually analyzed whether combine performance has any predictive power whatsoever? My first reaction is that the only significant numbers may be the extreme outliers and even those probably wouldn't be very significant...
Posted on 21-Aug-08 at 11:10 pm | PermalinkFirst rounders are busts not only because they have bigger expectations but because they have bigger salaries too. If your fourth rounder flops, it doesn't have a significant impact on the team's budget. If that 60 million dollar first rounder flops...
Posted on 21-Aug-08 at 11:12 pm | PermalinkThe Combine uses a hand start, even for the "electronic" times. So there is reaction time involved.
Posted on 22-Aug-08 at 2:56 am | PermalinkMattieShoes: Football Outsiders' new SpeedScore stat reckons that 40 time/weight is predictive It's a bit controversial though, and hardly bulletproof.
Posted on 22-Aug-08 at 5:40 am | PermalinkAre you sure about your math ? If you use an average over the 100 and extrapolate that Bolt would run the 40 in around 3.5 ish . He was said to run the 40 in around 3.8 Just for fun .
No one measures speed in terms of seconds/meter do that made the mi conversion difficult ...making a yard longer than a meter which is wrong ...
if you use the full 100 m sprint Bolts record time is 9.69 seconds ...
He runs 100m in 9.69 seconds so in 1 second he runs 10.3199m or
100/9.69 = 10.3199m/s
Using that average speed over the 100 he would clock the 40 yard dash (around 36.576m) in around 3.54 seconds
If you then compare the 4.1 posted by the likes of Darrell Green was running
the 40 in .
36.57600m in 4.1 seconds
36.576/4.1 = 8.92m/s
At that speed he would run the 100m sprint in a pedestrian 11.21seconds
Maybe I am wrong ...
Posted on 22-Aug-08 at 4:15 pm | Permalinki suspect bolt is much faster. however, i also believe if we did not have organized basketball, baseball, and football from pee-wee to pros, we'd have a hell of a lot more track, soccer, and probably even ping pong studs crawlin around olympic village right now. this argument goes back to my rugby days. all the aussies would say "rugby is tough... yada yada yada. usa rugby sucks...yada yada yada. therefore aussies are tougher..." give me hershell walker, bo jackson, and 13 others and a couple years to train them, THEN lets talk. (keep in mind this argument occurred a FEW years ago).
Posted on 22-Aug-08 at 5:02 pm | PermalinkI was assuming he was acclerating through most of the 100 meter dash but it doesn't appear so, or at least not all that significant.
After removing reaction time and adjusting to yards (and ignoring 0 yard data point), the least squares linear regression is:
seconds = 0.0782*yards + 0.9837 (R^2 is 0.9992)
Which gives a 4.11 at 40 yards. a binomial regression looks more like you'd expect for somebody who's accelerating, and the R^2=.9997... But that 4.14 at 40 yards, not all that different. I have no idea how much the starting blocks affect times...
One other minor thing -- We're looking at Bolt's 100m time because he just broke the world record. Bolt has run slower than that in every other competition in his life, whereas Johnson had only two attempts. If Bolt had run slower, we'd never be making this comparison in the first place. I don't have the statistics savvy to explain why that matters but it does.
Also, if the 40 times are really done by hand and can be off significantly due to human error, then you'd eventually get a 4.24 even if everybody is really running 4.4's.
Posted on 22-Aug-08 at 7:51 pm | PermalinkWell as far as I know the startingblocks are, by far, more significant than the human-error-aspect. Back in the days of Jesse Owens (no relation to Terelle) runners would actually dig a little hole to put their foot in before every race.
Posted on 23-Aug-08 at 12:37 am | PermalinkGreat info, but let’s compare apples to apples. Chris Johnson is 5′ 11″ and a RB. Usain Bolt is SIX FOOT FIVE INCHES tall and would likely explore WR (if he even bothered given he’ll make millions outside the provincial NFL, with the world not only at his feet, but trailing well behind by several yards/meters/whatever.) What’s more, Bolt ran the first 36 1/2 meters (roughly 40 yards) in approximately 4.23 seconds. Include your adjustments and he’s under 4.2.
Meanwhile, Mark Schlereth of ESPN, when asked if Bolt can play in the NFL, responds like the typical overly-proud and slightly paranoid NFL alum wearing his football fraternity like a blindfold, not a badge. Schlereth matter-of-factly and smugly states Bolt would be a “terrible football player.” If Usain Bolt can catch a football, take a hit and understand the rudiments of the game in time and with the best coaching available, then his prospects are astounding. All big ifs perhaps, but to prosaically say Bolt will be “terrible” — as if Schlereth possesses the last word and testament on who shall and who shalt not maketh his way as an NFL demi-god — is as ignorant as saying he will be great. No one yet knows. What we all know is Usain Bolt is blessed with once-in-a-lifetime athleticism and a bewildering combination of size, speed and mental toughness never before seen in human history, let alone the relatively provincial NFL. That’s right, mental toughness. Hey Schlereth, YOU try focusing and delivering history shattering performances amidst hair-trigger sensitivity as your entire country and the world watch. Schlereth also backs his statement by claiming Bolt “didn’t grow up in this country so he’s not familiar” with the sport. Uh, the sport can be LEARNED, especially under the tutelage of the world’s best football coaches. Just ask former African soccer player now NFL alum Christian Okoye.
No one, except maybe Brian Kenney, can possibly think Bolt would be an NFL star Day One, if he even bothers to try. However, of world class sprinters who make a transition to the NFL — see Bob Hayes, Renaldo Nehemiah, Willie Gault — Bolt would not be the first. Yet one thing is clear. He would easily be the fastest and most physically and athletically-gifted.
Posted on 23-Aug-08 at 3:48 pm | Permalink"What we all know is Usain Bolt is blessed with once-in-a-lifetime athleticism and a bewildering combination of size, speed and mental toughness never before seen in human history, let alone the relatively provincial NFL."
Mental toughness never before seen in human history? Steve Genter wants to have a word with you about that. Yeah, Bolt has ridiculous speed, but so far it's only in one direction. We don't know great his lateral movement is for example. It's probably pretty damn good, but we can't tell with any certainty from a 100 or 200 meter sprint.
Willie Gault and Bob Hayes played college football, it was not foreign to them. Renaldo Nehemiah, like Bolt, did not and he stunk. Bolt probably would to. Bolt's physical gifts are he is tall and fast. Those are great assets to have as a NFL player, but a NFL player needs more assets than that. Okoye had a then-unique combination of size, strength and speed, and was vetted through college football, something Bolt would not have the luxury of.
Posted on 24-Aug-08 at 1:46 pm | PermalinkIn regards to the uncertain of the stopwatch in question. No stopwatch that had an uncertainy of .3 seconds would be use in an Omlimpic event. It would not pass 9001 standards and certainly not ISO17025 standards. Whoever calibrated the stopwatch for this event would have an uncertainity caculated of probally about .00035 seconds, or somewhere in that neighborhood.
Posted on 25-Aug-08 at 7:31 am | PermalinkNow that is for the stopwatch used to check the Olympic stopwatch. So the stopwatch used at the Olympics much fall in a range just above or below the stopwatch used to calibrate in. Usually 1 division above or below the stopwatch use to calibrate it. So in this case probally .01 seconds.
So add that to the uncertainity of the calibrated stopwatch and you have your answer.
While it's possible that, if properly trained, Usain Bolt could become a huge threat in the NFL, the main point is that he has become arguably the greatest face in world sports today and his earnings will surely rise well well above the $15 mil a year range.
It would take more than a bit of madness for Bolt to try a sport he's never played before, or for a GM to offer him a suitable contract.
Posted on 25-Aug-08 at 8:19 am | PermalinkI am a swimming timing official, where we use totally automatic timing and have stopwatches as back-ups.
When you use a watch, you have a reaction time to start and to stop a watch.
Based on years of observation, I would estimate that a good timer would be within .15 of a totally automatic time, and that 3 good timers on a lane would be within that .15 the majority of the time. The swimming rules state that .30 is an acceptable variance.
My point is that a 40 yard time would be +/- .15 with good timers.
Also remember where Bolt was in the race at 40 yards.
Posted on 25-Aug-08 at 1:41 pm | PermalinkI don't really care whether or not Bolt could play football. He is without a doubt, the most ridiculous running freak we have ever seen. Football people don't get it.. Forget over-analyzing the 40, fact is he would FLY by all the NFL's fastest at their top speed - that's scary!
Posted on 25-Aug-08 at 7:33 pm | PermalinkI did a little blog searching, couldn't find anything. Have there been any posts here about extracting useful information from preseason results?
Posted on 26-Aug-08 at 7:42 am | PermalinkAll of you who say that there is an error becasue of the stop watch are just wrong. The NFL and majority of the top college programs use a laser device. The runner crosses a laser to start the timer and another one to stop the timer. Did yall really think that these million dollar athletes are finally judged by some a** hole with a stop watch? By the way, I cant wait to see Bolt give a shot in the NFL. He is to good of an athlete not to be able to catch a football and big enough to block somebody. Roll Tide
Posted on 28-Aug-08 at 1:26 am | PermalinkBamafan, you are completly 100% incorrect.
40 times are incredibly unscientific, and are geared towards making the numbers artifically faster then they truly are. The truth is, a bunch of scouts huddle near the finish line, hit start when they think the player starts ( over 40 yards away), then they hit stop when they think he crossed the line. Most of them will not have perfect site lines, and most of them will anticipate the finish and click as soon as possible. They then huddle around each other and try to come to a consensus. It's very arbitrary, and absurdly unscientific. There are no lasers or any other such electronic devices. They may as well be using sundials.
"Did yall really think that these million dollar athletes are finally judged by some a** hole with a stop watch?"
As absurd as it sounds, well, yeah, that's really what happens. It's effective in that everybody's times are artificially skewed the same way, so you're still comparing apples to apples. But if you used legitimate track standards, Chris Johnson's 4.24 would have been closer to a 4.5. That sounds slow, but only because we have been conditioned to believe so. The guys who allegedly are running 4.5 are really running 4.7 and 4.8.
Posted on 28-Aug-08 at 1:29 pm | Permalinkok, for those that think he could be an effective wide reciever I ask you this. Why not teach him to drag bunt, slap hit, whatever. He could leg out many an infield single. Then of course could steal second, and most likely third. What a weapon. in the oufield, give him a glove and he could run down every fly ball.
Why not?
Posted on 29-Aug-08 at 6:23 am | PermalinkBolt v. Holliday. Bolt's got a foot on the 5'5" phenom from LSU and he's a track star. Who would win in the 40?
Posted on 29-Aug-08 at 9:34 am | PermalinkThe calculations by Doug are excellent. I did a cubic spline interpolation and got 4.354 for Bolt at 40 yards. this should be a very good estimate.
Bolt is a slow starter. Maurice Greene who held the world record at 9.73 ran 40 yards in 4.249 (Cubic spline data)
NFL runners start when they decide to & manual timer must react. This gives then quite an advantage over sprinters ract to the starter's gun. This advantage might be as much as .4 seconds and is surely at least .2 seconds.
Posted on 30-Aug-08 at 9:29 am | PermalinkUsain Bolt says he wants to play football:
http://www.spikesmag.com/news/usainboltdreamsofrealmadridchance172.aspx
Posted on 03-Sep-08 at 8:29 am | PermalinkUsain bolt would get destroyed in the nfl...he should just stay on the track and get his golds
Posted on 16-Sep-08 at 12:34 am | PermalinkThey accounted for the difference in the starting gun and the NFL's timers with the reaction time. Bolts reaction time was .165. Either way i think the best way to see how fast would be to take their 10m split at their top speed. Bolts top 10m split was 8.2 sec. Which is about 27.279 miles per hour. If you look at the splits and extrapolate them to the football field he would catch a kickoff at the goal line and, if there were no defenders, reach the other goal line in 8.7 secs. At his top speed he would be about a 7.2 running 100 yard dash. Bob Hayes clocked a last leg of a 4X100 yard dash at 7.8 So theoretically, Hayes and Bolt are about the same speed at their top end. Which is amazing for Hayes because he was running on compressed dirt pretty much.
Football is played is such a tight area, so much stopping at starting, Bolt would not be anywhere near the quickest player in the league; Sproles, Chris Johnson, Devin Hester come to mind. But they are all little guys while Bolt is 6'5''. He would look a lot like Randy Moss but fast top end.
Posted on 16-Sep-08 at 1:56 pm | PermalinkEdit: .82 seconds for his 10m split not 8.2
Posted on 16-Sep-08 at 1:57 pm | PermalinkWell the truth is they're track runners and football runners. If you find someone that has one of the best starts in track and acceleration you'll find that a majority of the track community is faster than bolt in the 40 yard dash. With that being said no one will ever know who has ever ran the fastest 40 yard dash. Everyone is different and the forty yard dash is based on acceleration to top speed. Their probably are some track guys that could break four in the fourty but you probably haven't heard of them because of their lack of top speed. some of the quickest starters in the world doesn't have what it takes to run a solid time. I personally think a tyson gay or walter dix would have a lower forty. usain is a big man and it takes a while to get goin. While the smaller sprinters tend to accelerate a lot quicker.
Posted on 01-Jan-09 at 8:02 pm | PermalinkHi Doug
Sorry I didn't see this thread until now. I'm a big track stato and have been doing this sort of thing for a while. For what it's worth I think your calculations are pretty sound, at least to the point where you get him at 4.19.
Posted on 03-Feb-09 at 2:21 pm | PermalinkI think the one element you miss with relation to hand timing is that while at the combine you are timed from when you actually start, that is dependent on human reaction. So you need to add a bit to the combine times, or for the purpose of this exercise, take it off Bolt's time. That is to say that time passes from when the athlete starts to when the starter starts his watch.
In track the official conversion from hand timing to electronic is, as I understand it, 0.24secs. But that assumes hand timing both for the start and finish. At the comibine, it's only at the finish. I think on that basis, 0.24 is a bit much for our calculation because it builds in the fact that the timer tends to anticipate the finish in track races as well as being slow at the start. I think 0.15 secs would be more reasonable - that's a typcial reaction of a world class athlete to a gun, and although the starter might not be quite so swift, his is a sight based reaction rather than sound-based so that should even things out.
Anyway, that would bring Bolt down to 4.04 in combine terms which sounds a little more likely. Let's remember that although Bolt is rangey and not considered a good starter, this 40m time, excluding his reaction time, was the fastest in history, just edging out Mo Greene's time from when he ran 6.39 for 60m on route to 9.82 for 100 in 2001.
The starting block advantage is an important one, as is the fast track surface. In additon Bolt was pushed by the fastest sprinters in the world rather than running a cold trial. We also know nothing about the wind conditions at the combine. Bolt was aided by a 1.7m/s wind, just below the 2m/s legal limit. I assume that at the combine they chose to run with the wind, but who knows.
I'd be ahppy to add 0.1 to Bolt's time to allow for the starting blocks which would take us to 4.14.
There's little chance he'd actually do that in combine though - let's remember this was the fastest race of his life, for which he'd been preparing for 4 years.
But based on that race, on that day, if Bolt had been timed in the same way as he was at a combine, I think he'd have ran 4.04 give or take a few hundredths depending on the starter's reaction time.
That makes Darrell Green's 4.09, if that's really correct, seem incredible, but then Darrell was mighty fast.
Anyway, I hope that helps.
Sterlo
that doesn't make sense. Sprinters stay in a driving phase for over 40 yards. His split time wouldn't be accurate. He didn't get to his maximum velocity until after 40 yards. He could go faster because he was planning to run a longer distance
Posted on 20-Mar-09 at 1:03 pm | Permalinkthere is no math at all to this, the only true way to know what he would run his 40 yard dash in is to actually time him running it, yeah you can average all the numbers and use all these calculations, in math it makes sense but in reality.... he would have to run it in a "football environment". conditions are different at the NFL combine then at the olympics, they use different types of shoes and everything. Math can only tell you, based on knowledge you know already what COULD be the outcome. Usaian must run his 40 time on international telivison to stop all the debate.
Posted on 27-May-09 at 11:08 am | PermalinkThis is simple, lets have Usain Bolt run the 40 and Chris Johnson run the 100 meter. I gaurantee you Johnson wont win the 100 meter, Bolt is for sure faster in that (I would bet any sum of money Johnson with NFL training puts in no better than 9.95 and that is generous. He would get maybe olympic trials level time, I dont want any of these people who think track and field doesnt matter to spit out these theories for the unquestioned superiority of footbal. Either way, Bolt in a 40 yard dash would be interesting to see
Posted on 11-Aug-09 at 6:07 pm | Permalink40 yards as some have suggested is not a significant time for which major distinction in speed has been achieved. For NFL scouts the question is, does this player have top level speed. I suppose guys like Al Davis draft players who get tens to hundredths of a second faster than most 'players with top speed', but the results have shown that it isnt all that important. Football is a game, it isnt a race
Posted on 11-Aug-09 at 6:12 pm | PermalinkI don't know a whole lot about this stuff but I do know that bolt ran in a running suit/tights or whatever their called and shoes that weigh not even close to a pound. Now I don't know what Chris Johnson was wearing but his shoes were most likely a lot heavier and he probably wasn't wearing the tights and that to me that seems like it'd slow you down quite a bit compared to running in ultra light shoes and tights. But im not sure what he was wearing, im just pointing that out.
Posted on 11-Aug-09 at 9:56 pm | PermalinkUmmmmm? Why wouldn't they just rig up the combine with high speed cameras and measure the times that way. That takes human error out of it. Right?
Posted on 11-Aug-09 at 10:39 pm | PermalinkHopfully this clears up the math.
Column A = Bolt's Olympic time
column B = yard conversion for Bolts Olympic time
Column C = Yards minus the FAT reaction time of .24 seconds
Column D = 40yd time from a standing start
10m 1.85 1.69 1.45
Posted on 12-Aug-09 at 4:46 am | Permalink20m 2.87 (1.02) 0.93 0.93
30m 3.78 (0.91) 0.83 0.83
40m 4.65 (0.87) 0.80 0.80 4.01
50m 5.50 (0.85) 0.78 0.78
60m 6.32 (0.82) 0.75 0.75
70m 7.14 (0.82) 0.75 0.75
80m 7.96 (0.82) 0.75 0.75
90m 8.79 (0.83) 0.76 0.76
100m 9.69 (0.90) 0.82 0.82
Opps, some slightly bath math in that it assumes an acceleration rate that is also reduced by the meteres to yard conversion. Still, this totals to less about .08 of a second, still placing him around 4.09
Posted on 12-Aug-09 at 4:56 am | PermalinkOne thing that no one has mentioned is that football players run on grass, track athletes run on a track. As a former track runner, the surface can make a huge difference. If you put Chris Johnson on a track, with electronic timing, with spikes, his time would definitely be faster.
If you put Bolt on grass, in cleats, with handheld timing, his time would probably be slower.
The other thing to consider is that in the 40 yard dash, it is all about the start and the acceleration. Bolt's greatest advantage is his length, which means that he takes fewer steps per hundred meters than his competitors. However, the first ten to fifteen yards is acceleration, and after that you slowly accelerate up to about 60 yards, and then start to slow down until the finish. This is where Bolt shines, he is so long and athletic that he wins in the last 40 yards.
A 40 yard dash is all about acceleration. Bolt might not be the fastest human in the 40, but he would be in the 100 meters.
Sadly, Bolt will never play in the NFL. A dedicated track star can run for a decade or more at close to his optimum speed. Bolt would make more money running track, than playing football. Also, when he retired, Bolt could walk away from track, or hobble away from football.
Posted on 12-Aug-09 at 7:07 am | PermalinkJust like to say, Usain just screwed up about 90% of the estimates here with his new time, haha.
Posted on 17-Aug-09 at 10:20 pm | PermalinkChris Johnson ran track in college and he ran 10.1 in the 100 meter..that would have put him about 8 steps behind Bolt
Posted on 20-Aug-09 at 11:21 am | Permalinku cannot use a 100 time to predict a 40 and u cannot use a 40time to predict a 100 time
Posted on 20-Aug-09 at 4:14 pm | Permalinkjustin gatlin who ran a 9.77 in the 100 only ended up running a 4.42 when working out for the houstin texans and LSU running back trindan holiday who runs a 4.2 has only manage to run a 10.00 flat
How could anyone of you dare compare an NFL running back with a world record holder!!And for Usain Bolt to run 9.58 means he has a decent start. And I guarantee if you put any NFL player next to him in a 40 it wouldnt even be close. And Usain Bolt would be able to play football if he knew the game, but its not his profession, and sprinting is not an nfl player profession. But he would be able to convert to football easier than a football player running world class.
Posted on 23-Aug-09 at 4:37 am | PermalinkThe math on this is relatively straightforward. You can roughly calculate how long it took him to cover the first 40 yards of the race to within a very good approximation. Football is "timed distance traveled", while track is "time from the gun sounding" - so we leave out the reaction time to get a comparable.
To cover 40 meters Bolt took 4.64 seconds. The first 30 meters, or about 32.8 yards, took 3.78 seconds. So we need 7.2 yards out of his next split after 30m (his 30 to 40m split covered 10 meters, or 10.94 yards, with a duration of 0.86 seconds). So we take 7.2/10.9 = 0.66. Multiply that by 0.86, which is generous to Bolt because he's in his acceleration phase here, and you get 0.57. We add that 7.2 yard time to his 32.8 yard time for a total of 4.35 seconds.
However, that 4.35 includes reaction time of 0.15. When all is said and done? Bolt ran the first 40 yards of his recent world-record 100 meter dash in 4.20 seconds. That's it, and it's inhumanly fast. Nothing outlandish, like "3.9". Take away the blocks and give him an average time, instead of the fastest time ever recorded by a human being, and he's probably more like 4.3 or 4.35 or whatever - this is speculation. It DOES contextualize all of the nonsense about 4.2 this and 4.1 that - those numbers as a rule just aren't that believable and sound like marketing hyberbole to me. Out of blocks, on a fast track, in track spikes, with a bit of wind and the fastest competition, the fastest 100 meter runner of all time managed a 4.20 (roughly - actually a little slower).
Stocky, more powerfully-built short-distance specialists might be able to do better under those conditions (Bolt is pretty thin - 6'5" and 195 or so, according to what I've seen) - but who knows?
Posted on 24-Aug-09 at 4:00 pm | PermalinkI read an article on Yahoo! that said Bolt could run the 40-yard dash in about 3.73 seconds without being electronically timed. If he was electronically timed, then he was projected to run it in approximately 3.97 seconds. If you do the math yourself, you can determine that Bolt could run the 40-yard dash in approximately 3.5 seconds!
Posted on 24-Aug-09 at 10:09 pm | PermalinkStopwatches are very inaccurate. When the runner crosses the line it can take .15 to .35 seconds for you to press the button. Think of what happens you react to a stimulus and you press a button. Think about this you are reacting to the end time it takes time for your brain to send a message to your hand to stop the watch then it takes more time for you to actually press the button. If you try to start and stop a button you will get the time it takes to stop it if you divide by two it.
Posted on 15-Sep-09 at 5:03 pm | PermalinkGinn vs Bolt in a 40 would equate to the world ending.
Posted on 11-Nov-09 at 1:22 am | Permalink