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ShareThisYards per Reception: “Worst” WRs ever
Yesterday, I looked at the WRs with the highest yards per reception ratios (compared to league average) in NFL history. Today I'm going to look at the "worst" ones, with that word in quotes because I'm not really sure a low YPR is bad.
I'll use the same three methods employed yesterday to rank the receivers again. The first involves taking the difference between the league-wide yards per reception rate (after subtracting out the individual WR’s own numbers) and the WR’ s yards per reception ratio, and multiplying that difference by the number of receptions. So if the league average YPR was 15.00, and a WR had 100 receptions for 1400 yards, he’d have a value of -100 — he averaged 14 YPR, 1.00 below 15 YPR, over 100 receptions. Similarly, if he had 50 receptions for 650 yards, he’d be 100 yards below average as well. He’d have a 13.00 YPR average, which is 2.00 below 15.00, for 50 receptions.
Here's a list of the 50 WRs with the "worst" YPR seasons of all time:
year team rec recyd ypr lg ypr diff Cris Carter 1994 min 122 1256 10.30 14.24 -482 Lionel Taylor 1961 den 100 1176 11.76 15.95 -419 Troy Brown 2002 nwe 97 890 9.18 13.34 -404 Al Toon 1988 nyj 93 1067 11.47 15.66 -390 Jim C. Jensen 1989 mia 61 557 9.13 15.36 -380 Lionel Taylor 1962 den 77 908 11.79 16.63 -372 Gail Cogdill 1966 det 47 411 8.74 16.42 -361 Haywood Jeffires 1992 oti 90 913 10.14 14.13 -358 Lionel Taylor 1964 den 76 873 11.49 16.16 -355 Ricky Sanders 1994 atl 67 599 8.94 14.22 -353 Cris Carter 1995 min 122 1371 11.24 14.10 -349 Dwight Clark 1980 sfo 82 991 12.09 16.26 -342 J.T. Smith 1987 crd 91 1117 12.27 15.97 -337 Dwight Clark 1981 sfo 85 1105 13.00 16.88 -330 Lonzell Hill 1988 nor 66 703 10.65 15.65 -330 Art Monk 1984 was 106 1372 12.94 16.02 -326 Laveranues Coles 2004 was 90 950 10.56 14.17 -325 T.J. Houshmandzadeh 2007 cin 112 1143 10.21 13.10 -325 Raymond Berry 1961 clt 75 873 11.64 15.91 -320 Matt Bouza 1986 clt 71 830 11.69 16.10 -313 J.T. Smith 1988 crd 83 986 11.88 15.65 -313 Ahmad Rashad 1978 min 66 769 11.65 16.37 -311 Johnny Morris 1964 chi 93 1200 12.90 16.13 -300 Billy Johnson 1976 oti 47 495 10.53 16.90 -299 Chris Burford 1963 kan 68 824 12.12 16.51 -299 Bobby Engram 1999 chi 88 947 10.76 14.14 -297 Wes Welker 2007 nwe 112 1175 10.49 13.10 -292 Marty Booker 2001 chi 100 1071 10.71 13.61 -290 Billy Johnson 1983 atl 64 709 11.08 15.57 -288 Peter Warrick 2001 cin 70 667 9.53 13.61 -285 Mike Pritchard 1993 atl 74 736 9.95 13.77 -283 Don Stonesifer 1952 crd 54 617 11.43 16.64 -282 Jim C. Jensen 1990 mia 44 365 8.30 14.69 -281 Bill Miller 1963 buf 69 860 12.46 16.51 -279 John Mistler 1983 nyg 45 422 9.38 15.57 -279 Eric Moulds 2005 buf 81 816 10.07 13.48 -276 Hines Ward 2001 pit 94 1003 10.67 13.60 -276 Clyde Conner 1958 sfo 49 512 10.45 16.06 -275 Charley Taylor 1969 was 71 883 12.44 16.29 -274 J.T. Smith 1986 crd 80 1014 12.68 16.09 -273 Al Toon 1989 nyj 63 693 11.00 15.34 -273 Quinn Early 1994 nor 82 894 10.90 14.20 -270 John Stallworth 1985 pit 75 937 12.49 16.09 -269 Brett Perriman 1996 det 94 1021 10.86 13.72 -269 Sterling Sharpe 1993 gnb 112 1274 11.38 13.77 -268 O.J. McDuffie 1998 mia 90 1050 11.67 14.64 -267 Peerless Price 2006 buf 49 402 8.20 13.62 -265 Lionel Taylor 1965 den 85 1131 13.31 16.40 -263 Derrick Mason 2007 rav 103 1087 10.55 13.09 -261 Mike Pritchard 1992 atl 77 827 10.74 14.10 -259You can do this simple calculation for every season of every receiver’s career. If you add up the differentials, you can get a career list. Here’s a list of the top 30 wide receivers, with their career differential totals listed alongside their first year in the league:
diff firstyr Lionel Taylor -2036 1959 Art Monk -1764 1980 J.T. Smith -1716 1978 Cris Carter -1658 1987 Charley Taylor -1485 1964 Dwight Clark -1420 1979 Jim C. Jensen -1332 1981 Al Toon -1315 1985 Haywood Jeffires -1293 1987 Ahmad Rashad -1279 1972 Troy Brown -1261 1993 Billy Johnson -1229 1974 Jim Gibbons -1076 1958 Hines Ward -1039 1998 Bobby Engram -1001 1996 Bobby Joe Conrad - 988 1958 Raymond Berry - 922 1955 Ike Hilliard - 878 1997 Tom Fears - 869 1948 Terance Mathis - 844 1990 Chris Burford - 841 1960 Bob Chandler - 825 1971 Brett Perriman - 818 1988 Brian Brennan - 809 1984 Don Stonesifer - 795 1951 Don Herrmann - 790 1969 Keenan McCardell - 789 1992 O.J. McDuffie - 779 1993 Dan Edwards - 768 1948 Mike Pritchard - 752 1991
That list isn't perfect, though. It treats a WR that has 70 catches and a 12 YPR average as having a "worst" YPR average than a guy with 50 catches and a 12 YPR average. So once again, I came up with another method that looks purely at YPR, assuming a certain threshold has been met. Any season where a WR accumulated 1% of the receiving yards gained by all WRs in the league counts; any season where a WR hasn’t, doesn’t.
If a WR hits that threshold, his season is included, and he’s given credit for his percentage below league average. Troy Brown in 2002 had 890 yards on 97 catches. That means he averaged 9.18 YPR and the rest of the WRs in the NFL averaged 13.34; in other words, he averaged 31% fewer yards per reception than the average receiver. The table below lists the top 50 seasons since 1950 by NFL WRs under that method:
year team rec recyd ypr lg ypr perc
Gail Cogdill 1966 det 47 411 8.74 16.42 -46.7%
Billy Johnson 1976 oti 47 495 10.53 16.90 -37.7%
Frank Pitts 1973 cle 31 317 10.23 15.98 -36.0%
Billy Johnson 1975 oti 37 393 10.62 16.59 -36.0%
Bob Scarpitto 1964 den 35 375 10.71 16.08 -33.4%
Pervis Atkins 1962 ram 35 393 11.23 16.55 -32.1%
Lonzell Hill 1988 nor 66 703 10.65 15.65 -31.9%
Bob Long 1969 was 48 533 11.10 16.28 -31.8%
Tinker Owens 1978 nor 40 446 11.15 16.33 -31.7%
Troy Brown 2002 nwe 97 890 9.18 13.34 -31.2%
Joel Parker 1974 nor 41 455 11.10 16.04 -30.8%
Bobby Joe Conrad 1966 crd 34 388 11.41 16.34 -30.2%
Gino Cappelletti 1967 nwe 35 397 11.34 16.23 -30.1%
Lionel Taylor 1962 den 77 908 11.79 16.63 -29.1%
Harold Carmichael 1976 phi 42 503 11.98 16.86 -29.0%
Lionel Taylor 1964 den 76 873 11.49 16.16 -28.9%
Billy Johnson 1983 atl 64 709 11.08 15.57 -28.9%
Ahmad Rashad 1978 min 66 769 11.65 16.37 -28.8%
Ron Kramer 1966 det 37 432 11.68 16.34 -28.6%
Al Toon 1989 nyj 63 693 11.00 15.34 -28.3%
Haywood Jeffires 1992 oti 90 913 10.14 14.13 -28.2%
Jim C. Jensen 1988 mia 58 652 11.24 15.63 -28.1%
Harold Carmichael 1974 phi 56 649 11.59 16.06 -27.8%
Mike Pritchard 1993 atl 74 736 9.95 13.77 -27.8%
Cris Carter 1994 min 122 1256 10.30 14.24 -27.7%
Bob Wallace 1969 chi 47 553 11.77 16.27 -27.7%
Matt Bouza 1986 clt 71 830 11.69 16.10 -27.4%
Raymond Berry 1961 clt 75 873 11.64 15.91 -26.8%
Sam McCullum 1981 sea 46 567 12.33 16.85 -26.8%
Al Toon 1988 nyj 93 1067 11.47 15.66 -26.8%
Chris Burford 1963 kan 68 824 12.12 16.51 -26.6%
Jim Gibbons 1960 det 51 604 11.84 16.14 -26.6%
Drew Hill 1992 atl 60 623 10.38 14.10 -26.3%
Lionel Taylor 1961 den 100 1176 11.76 15.95 -26.3%
Nat Moore 1980 mia 47 564 12.00 16.21 -26.0%
Dwight Clark 1980 sfo 82 991 12.09 16.26 -25.7%
Dick Compton 1967 pit 42 507 12.07 16.23 -25.6%
Joe Walton 1962 nyg 33 406 12.30 16.52 -25.5%
Laveranues Coles 2004 was 90 950 10.56 14.17 -25.5%
Eric Moulds 2005 buf 81 816 10.07 13.48 -25.3%
Chris Burford 1965 kan 47 575 12.23 16.36 -25.2%
Chip Myers 1974 cin 32 383 11.97 16.00 -25.2%
Andre Hastings 1996 pit 72 739 10.26 13.72 -25.2%
Bob Newland 1972 nor 47 579 12.32 16.46 -25.2%
Ahmad Rashad 1976 min 53 671 12.66 16.87 -24.9%
Ahmad Rashad 1974 buf 36 433 12.03 16.01 -24.9%
Don Bass 1979 cin 58 724 12.48 16.60 -24.8%
Max Boydston 1962 rai 30 374 12.47 16.52 -24.5%
Bill Miller 1963 buf 69 860 12.46 16.51 -24.5%
Don Herrmann 1973 nyg 43 520 12.09 15.98 -24.3%
It's worth noting that Billy Johnson -- Billy "White Shoes" Johnson -- ranks with some of the "worst" seasons of all time here. Obviously Johnson was very fast and not your typical possession receiver, but surely his teams tried to get him the ball in space, and run a number of screen passes his way. In that sense, his YPR is almost more comparable to a RB's yards per reception ratio, as those plays are low-risk plays that usually gained at least a couple of yards. Just another reason I'm skeptical that a low YPR is a bad thing for a receiver.
That said, here's the career list:
Charley Taylor 1964 -1.61 Lionel Taylor 1959 -1.56 J.T. Smith 1978 -1.34 Wayne Millner 1936 -1.29 Ahmad Rashad 1972 -1.29 Art Monk 1980 -1.26 Don Stonesifer 1951 -1.20 Bob McChesney 1936 -1.10 Bobby Joe Conrad 1958 -1.09 Dwight Clark 1979 -1.08 Billy Johnson 1974 -1.07 Jim Gibbons 1958 -1.07 Al Toon 1985 -1.06 Tom Fears 1948 -1.01 Cris Carter 1987 -1.00 Dan Edwards 1948 -0.95 Bob Chandler 1971 -0.94 Chris Burford 1960 -0.93 Maury Patt 1938 -0.92 Raymond Berry 1955 -0.91 Billy Wilson 1951 -0.87 Al Coppage 1940 -0.85 Haywood Jeffires 1987 -0.83 Joe Aguirre 1941 -0.83 Nick Susoeff 1946 -0.82 Don Herrmann 1969 -0.80 Charley Malone 1934 -0.80 Bill McColl 1952 -0.80 Bob Masterson 1938 -0.77 Sam Busich 1936 -0.76 Jack Matheson 1943 -0.74 Gordie Soltau 1950 -0.74 Bill Swiacki 1948 -0.73 Fred Biletnikoff 1965 -0.72 Bill Stribling 1951 -0.71 Pop Ivy 1940 -0.71 Pat Tilley 1976 -0.71 Mike Pritchard 1991 -0.70 Boyd Dowler 1959 -0.70 Jim Mooney 1933 -0.70 Joel Mason 1939 -0.65 Bill Fisk 1940 -0.64 Max Boydston 1955 -0.64 Clyde Conner 1956 -0.63 Troy Brown 1993 -0.61 Sam McCullum 1974 -0.61 Paul Riblett 1932 -0.60 Ron Kramer 1957 -0.60 Ed Cifers 1941 -0.60 Keyshawn Johnson 1996 -0.59
The above formula solves the problem of guys with a ton of receptions and an average YPR ranking "worse" than a guy with a very low YPR average and an ordinary number of catches. However, it obviously doesn’t look at a player’s entire career — only some seasons are counted. This last formula fixes that:
(Sum over all seasons of: playerREC * 100*playerYPR/leagueYPR)
all divided by
total career receptions.
This is a weighted average of seasonal YPR/LgYPR, weighted by number of
receptions in the season. We have to use a minimum number of receptions if we want to generate a career list, but this stat might do the best job of matching our perception of what a low YPR receiver looks like. Here’s a list of all guys with at least 100 receptions:
Jim C. Jensen 1981 229 61.9 Paul Skansi 1983 166 76.0 Dick Bielski 1955 107 76.1 Jim Gibbons 1958 287 76.9 Billy Johnson 1974 337 77.5 Bob Wallace 1968 109 77.7 George Wilson 1937 111 77.9 Lionel Taylor 1959 567 77.9 Don Stonesifer 1951 231 78.5 Dan Edwards 1948 234 78.9 Don Herrmann 1969 234 79.3 Karl Noonan 1966 136 79.4 Dennis Gentry 1982 171 79.6 J.T. Smith 1978 544 80.3 Lonzell Hill 1987 136 80.3 Peter Warrick 2000 275 80.3 Clyde Conner 1956 203 80.4 Dave L. Smith 1970 109 80.4 Dante Hall 2000 150 81.0 Bill Miller 1962 141 81.0 Wayne Millner 1936 124 81.8 Matt Bouza 1981 234 82.4 Don Bass 1978 117 82.4 Jack Clancy 1967 104 82.6 Dwight Clark 1979 506 82.7 Haywood Jeffires 1987 535 82.9 Wes Welker 2004 208 82.9 Troy Walters 2000 102 83.0 Dick Witcher 1966 172 83.2 Troy Brown 1993 557 83.3 Al Toon 1985 517 83.4 Brian Brennan 1984 334 84.0 Curtis Duncan 1987 322 84.0 Lou Piccone 1974 100 84.2 Ahmad Rashad 1972 495 84.2 Kevin Walter 2003 112 84.7 Dez White 2000 187 84.9 Ken Payne 1974 116 85.1 Chip Myers 1967 220 85.4 Jim Beirne 1968 142 85.5 Tai Streets 1999 196 85.5 Bobby Joe Conrad 1958 422 85.7 Tom Hall 1962 103 85.7 Troy Edwards 1999 203 85.7 Mark Seay 1993 135 86.0 Charley Taylor 1964 649 86.0 Tom Fears 1948 400 86.3 Bob Chandler 1971 370 86.4 Fair Hooker 1969 129 86.7 O.J. McDuffie 1993 415 86.7
This entry was posted on Tuesday, October 7th, 2008 at 4:48 am and is filed under History, Statgeekery. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.
I think you might consider median vs mean more. A guy catches 50 passes, 10 yards each - 500 yards. He breaks 5 for 50 - 700 yards, 14 average. It doesn't take many times beating the last defender to raise the mean drastically.
So I looked at Welker vs Moss. Welker's career long in 235 catches is 47 yards. Moss's worst year, his long was 51. Generally he tops out in the 60-80 range.
The distribution graphs might be interesting.
A low YPC does not make a receiver bad, just as a high YPC does not make a receiver good. If a receiver is good at nothing but running straight downfield and catches one out of every 10 passes that hit him in the hands, he's practically worthless to his team. But you can bet he'll end up with a high YPC for those few passes he catches. That doesn't make him good. Nor does being a possession receiver who is good for 10 yards per catch make you bad. If you catch 80 percent of the passes thrown to you and consistently convert on third-and-7 or third-and-10, you're extremely valuable, even if you have a low YPC. Saying the low-YPC receiver is "worse" than the high-YPC receiver in these examples is laughable.
One problem with having Charley Taylor on this list is that he was basically an rb for his first 2+ years in the league. He was not a very good rb (although he was on a not very good rushing team), but an excellent receiver. I think he was not quite as good an rb as Reggie Bush but a much better wr, but that is based on very hazy memories of his playing and from looking at his stats.
Anyhow, Taylor's numbers are "polluted" by playing a lot of rb '64-66. Interestingly, 3 of his best 4 ypr seasons came while he was technically an rb.