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ShareThisThe What Coulda Been (WCB) Tournament: the at-large selections and seeding
I suppose I could have titled this the March Sadness tournament as well.
Here's the idea. To mirror the NCAA Basketball Tournament that is going to be taking place over the next several weeks, we are going to do a 64-team field simulation tournament of NFL teams. I could have chosen any number of criteria, but this tournament is going to be for all those teams in the Super Bowl era who came up just a little short. It's the best of the not-quite-best. The woulda-shoulda-couldas. The "close only counts in hand grenades and horseshoes" crowd. Or if you prefer, the Vikings and Bills chance at redemption (or additional heartbreak).
History only remembers the victors, but here at the PFR blog we like to shine the light on some of history's other teams. So here is how it is going to work. Much like the NCAA tournament has several automatic selections that go to teams that win their conference, even if they would not be strong enough to get in as an at-large, every team that won its conference (or league from 1966-1969) and then lost in the Super Bowl gets an automatic bid into the tournament. That fills forty-four of our sixty-four slots.
The remaining twenty slots are going to be filled by at-large selections with teams that lost before reaching the Super Bowl. I have several somewhat loose criteria for making my at-large selections:
1) team win-loss record
2) SRS rating to show dominance
3) when the team lost in the playoffs (losing in Championship game rates higher than a wildcard loss)
4) who did you lose to in the playoffs (losing to the eventual Super Bowl champion/other dominant team rates higher)
5) how did you lose (heartbreaking losses or historically memorable games get bonus points)
6) an attempt of rough equality of at-large selections over time so there is no era bias in our selections
7) is this team already adequately represented by other teams from the same franchise and era that are already in the tourney? For example, the 1975 Vikings might otherwise be in, since they were the top team in the conference and lost at home in the Hail Mary game, but they are more than adequately represented already by the 1973, 1974 and 1976 squads.
Once we get the field of 64 set and seeded, the games will be decided by running the simulations through the What If Sports website, and game links to each simulation will be posted. The higher seed will host the games in the first two rounds, and the weather conditions for the game will be based on current temperatures in that city. The regional semifinals and finals will take place in four venues: New Orleans, Tampa, Los Angeles, and Houston. The Final Four will meet at the site of this year's Super Bowl and in the city that has hosted the most Super Bowls-Miami.
Since these games will be simulated, once the field is set, I have no control over the outcome. We will have upsets and the outcome will not be predetermined. It should, hopefully, be a fun and frivolous ride.
Now, let's get to setting the field. With those at-large criteria in mind, I am making the following at-large selections. These are the teams that would mostly be high seeds anyway, and I suspect would be on most people's short list of best and/or most heartbreaking teams to not make a Super Bowl. The following teams are in as at-larges:
1976 Pittsburgh Steelers. This team has the highest SRS of any non-Super Bowl team, and it brings the Steelers dynasty, as this team falls right in the middle of the four Super Bowls.
1994 Dallas Cowboys. This team was arguably just as good as the Dallas teams around it that won three Super Bowls, and the Cowboys lost to the Niners in the championship game.
1967 Los Angeles Rams. This is the team that beat the Colts out for the Coastal Division Title and had only one loss, but then had to travel to play Green Bay in the cold despite having the superior record, and lost to eventual Super Bowl II Champion Packers. This brings in the Fearsome Foursome (rest in peace, Merlin Olsen) to our tournament.
1992 San Fransisco 49ers. I chose this one over the 1990 and 1993 versions that were in close proximity, as this franchise might have won multiple titles but for the Cowboys.
2004 Pittsburgh Steelers. This is the 15-1 team that lost at home to eventual Super Bowl Champion New England, led by a rookie Ben Roethlisberger.
1998 Minnesota Vikings. Another 15-1 team that lost in heartbreak fashion at home to the Atlanta Falcons and featured a rookie Randy Moss and the revival of Randall Cunningham.
2005 Indianapolis Colts. This selection brings in the mid-decade Colts, and this team was the #1 seed and lost to the eventual Super Bowl Champion Steelers in heartbreaking fashion.
1981 Dallas Cowboys. The Cowboys appeared in three straight championship games from 1980-1982, and this version gets the nod because of "The Catch".
1987 San Fransisco 49ers. This team went 13-2 in the regular season, and the Niners would go on to win the next two Super Bowls.
1986 Chicago Bears. This team was just as dominant defensively as the Super Bowl shuffle version from the year before, and posted a 14-2 record, but were upset by Washington at home in the semifinals.
1987 Cleveland Browns. This was the Fumble game. This team may not be as strong as the other at-larges above, but if we are going to have a What Coulda Been tournament, don't we have to have a Cleveland team from the mid-80's, to represent the Drive and the Fumble? I went with this version over the previous year's team because of a higher SRS rating.
Okay, so that is 11 entries. There is a 12th entry that I am also making. The Air Coryell San Diego Chargers have to be represented in this tourney as well. I just cannot decide yet between the 1979, 1980 and 1981 versions. The 1979 version has by far the highest SRS, but lost before the championship game. The other two versions reached the championship game, with the 1980 team losing to eventual champion Raiders, and the 1981 team winning the unforgettable game in Miami, only to lose in the coldest game in playoff history in the championship game. I guess I'm leaning 1981 at this point, but am throwing this one open for debate.
The remaining 8 slots are left to be determined. Here are the "bubble" teams in my mind (in chronological order), though you can certainly recommend someone else:
1966 Dallas Cowboys
1967 Baltimore Colts
1969 Los Angeles Rams
1972 Pittsburgh Steelers
1973 Los Angeles Rams
1974 Oakland Raiders
1975 Saint Louis Cardinals
1980 Atlanta Falcons
1982 New York Jets
1983 San Fransisco 49ers
1989 Los Angeles Rams
1993 Houston Oilers
1996 Carolina Panthers
1996 Denver Broncos
1997 Kansas City Chiefs
1998 New York Jets
1999 Jacksonville Jaguars
2000 Oakland Raiders
2002 Philadelphia Eagles
2005 Denver Broncos
2006 San Diego Chargers
2006 Baltimore Ravens
2007 Green Bay Packers
2007 Dallas Cowboys
2008 Tennessee Titans
2009 Minnesota Vikings
So, feel free to post your remaining 8 at-large selections, stuff the ballot box for your favorite teams, and if you have any input on which Air Coryell team should be in, note that too. You can also make any suggestions about seeding and those will be taken into account as well, such as who your #1 seeds would be, or who should be seeded #16. The plan is to post the brackets some time next week in a single bracket announcement post, so that the ever-popular bracket pools can get started, and then start posting each round (probably two posts for each half of the first round) starting thereafter. Hopefully, we will get through this along with the NCAA tournament schedule and conclude in early April.
This entry was posted on Friday, March 12th, 2010 at 7:00 am and is filed under Insane ideas, Totally Useless. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.
Bit of an issue with the 2009 Packers and 1992 Oilers on your list, though, MattieShoes.
The 2009 Packers lost in OT - to a team that got curbstomped by the Saints. Correct me if I'm wrong, but the 2009 Packers would have had to play that Saints team even if they won. So why focus on this OT loss, when the Vikings OT loss was deeper in the playoffs and could have been blamed entirely on OT.
The 1992 Oilers lose all credibility for losing that game. They weren't victims(though some of it was hard to stomach, I'm sure) of circumstance. They just lost.
And Jason - There's no point, really, in extending it now. Especially if you have a theme. Because I realize how long this could, potentially, take. Maybe expand it to 128 and include winners if you want to do this again.
I like it! I would shy away from any more 70's Steelers or 80's Niner teams, they won 8 SB's between them. They were all-time great teams, and weren't going to win every single season. So I would lean more towards potentially great teams that couldn't get over the hump over dynasties that for whatever reason didn't win that particular year.
Some mid 70's Raider teams absolutely need to be represented. They had the misfortune of peaking at the same time as Pittsburgh, and it could be argued they only got their one SB because Franco and Bleier were both hurt for the AFC Champ game. I hope that the 90's Bills teams go far in this tourney. It's an incredible accomplishment to make 4 consecutive SB's, even if they lost them all. THIS TIME, ITS THE BILLS!!!! THE THIRD TIME IS THE CHARM!!!!!! AAAAHHHHHHHH!!!! AAAHHHHHHHHHHH!!!
Rams running back Lawrence McCutcheon (1972-79) has said that he feels the two best Rams teams from that era were the 1973 and 1977 squads.
In post 47, Patrick W has each of those two Rams teams in his top six for at-large berths. I think that is good.
Cool as this is, after it's done, I'd like to see the opposite: Take a field of the *worst* 64 (or 32) teams and pit them against each other, with the losers of each game "advancing." (I just ran a sim between the 2008 Lions and the 1976 Bucs; Lions won, 34-27.)
For weeding out teams to make the final 64 (at least my own 64) I look at SRS, record, head-to-head matchups with other playoff teams, how far a particular team advanced, did they ultimately lose on the road and would things be different if they had played at home instead (remember before 1975 teams were on a rotating playoff schedule). Plus the blowout factor: a team getting annihilated in a playoff game doesn't make me think they belong in the final 64 (but I also weigh that against the relative strengths of the Super Bowl winners). Also, what was the Super Bowl winner's SRS, record, strength, etc., compared to the team in question. Other factors - blown calls or controversial ones that might have changed the outcomes - there were a lot of them.
I'd be curious to see the algorithms behind these What-If simulations.
I'm a member of WhatIfSports.com and a few years ago, one of the other members formed what's called a theme league, where any member can form an NFL league comprising of 24 teams and set his own rules.
Anyway, in this particular league, the theme was "Best team to not make the Super Bowl." Every player in the league would pick all of the available players from his chosen team and the league would play a 16 game regular season.
I used the 1987 49ers and won the championship, beating, if I remember right, the 1987 Browns in the Super Bowl. That's one of the reasons I think so highly of that team.
I don't have any idea of how the simulator's logarithm works.
"The 1990 team finished 14-2, beat the eventual Super Bowl Champion New York Giants when both teams were 10-1."
I agree here. 90 rather than 92. That MNF game was the most entertaining and well-played 7-3 game you will ever see.
My votes for at-large bids:
2000 Titans
1993 Oilers
1998 Jets
I want to also say 74 Raiders, but I suspect that I am remembering them as being better than they actually were.
Re: The 1987 season. SRS ratings are very suspect because of those three games played by replacement players. I wonder if PFR can at some time include an SRS for the 12-games played with the regular rosters and strip out the three-games that were clearly an asterisk, even the NFL would never say so.
I can't do formulas with recursion on my spreadsheet, otherwise I would try to do it myself.
I meant to say in the last post "even though the NFL would never say so."
Patrick W,
That's definitely a do-able project. I'll put it on the to-do list.
The 1987 49ers were an incredible team, regardless of a possible strike inflated record. Jerry Rice had 23 touchdowns in 12 games, ferchrissakes, and they absolutely were destroying teams down the stretch (the 41-0 shutout against the Bears with their backup, the admittedly great Steve Young, started a stretch where they outscored their opponents 134-7 to close out the regular season). Then they won the next two Super Bowls, and just missed reaching a third. That was when Jerry Rice became JERRY RICE. That was an all-time upset when the Vikes beat them
Yes, the Niners were a great team in 1987. Nobody's doubting that. But for purposes of making comparisons with other also-rans it would be nice to reflect the real records of the teams and not include the strike teams' records. 10-2 is a great record for San Fran, but 13-2 should have an asterisk. Likewise the Vikings' record was really 8-4 heading into the playoffs and not 8-7.
I remember when all the media jumped on top of Minnesota and said they had backed into the playoffs relying on a Dallas win in the final week to give them a postseason. But none of the real Viking squad felt they had backed in. So they went out and destroyed New Orleans 44-10 and then thumped San Fran 36-24.
I kinda laugh when football scribes refer to that SF-Minn game as an all-time upset. Yes, the 49ers were 11-point favorites that day. But it was as if the betting public thought Tony Adams was going to be the QB against Joe Montana.
In that playoff game, Anthony Carter gave maybe the best performance ever by a skill position player without scoring or throwing for a touchdown.
I think the final 8 should be:
2005 Denver Broncos - Went 13-3 against football's toughest schedule.
1993 Houston Oilers - Run and Shoot needs a representative.
1966 Dallas Cowboys - So do the Don Meredith/Doomsday I Cowboy teams.
1979 San Diego Chargers - And Air Coryell.
1996 Denver Broncos - Playoff loss was close, and they won the next two Super Bowls. Right up there with DAL94 and PIT76.
2003 Kansas City Chiefs - The Chiefs were really good from the mid-90s until just a few years ago and should have a team. I think this was the best of the bunch, but '97 or '95 would be fine too.
1967 Baltimore Colts - Best team to not make the playoffs needs to be in because of the hilarity that will ensue if they win.
2007 Dallas Cowboys - Best team left on your list after the above 7 are gone.
Whoops. Read that too fast. I vote for '79 for the Chargers, and for the 8th slot I think the 2006 Ravens are the best choice.
The four top seeds should be DAL94, PIT76, DAL78, and NE07.
You've all forgotten the 2005 Seahawks.
13-3 (incl meaningless loss in final game). Dominating and efficient offense throughout the year headlined by Shawn Alexander setting TD record behind Big Walt and Steve Hutchinson.
Outplayed Steelers in front of a thoroughly partisan crowd [and refs?
] in Super Bowl(see DVOA).
When you played the games: did you only let it play once? Or, did you run mutiple games?
This is too late for influencing the teams selection for this WCB tourney, bhut for future ones, and for posterity I'll post it anyway.
There seems to be some controversy over the meaning of "greatest team to never win a super bowl"
specificially, the controversy stems from the meaning of the words team and never. Does Team refer to a franchise for one year only?or to that franchise for 2, 3, 5years....... forever.
If freanchise performances of multiple years are considered to be the same team, then the secondary question comes into play. What is meant by never? Are we looking for a 'team' that didn't win the super bowl for the entire period over which it was 'that team' or just for a team that failed 1 or more times to win the superbowl during it's 'teamhood'
I think there are two methods preferable to the one that seems to have been used b y Jason Lisk.
1) A Team refers to a franchise during any one season in the superbowl era, discounting current season, if in progress. Any such team that *did not win the super bowl* is potentially eligible, playoff teams are clearly more eligible than non-playoff teams, and teams that lost in later rounds more-so than teams that lost in early rounds.
2) A team refers to any group of players owned by a single franchise, who made up the bulk of that franchise's roster for 1 or more years. Any such team that *won 0 super bowls * is potentially
eligible, playoff teams are clearly more eligible than non-playoff teams, and teams that lost in later rounds more-so than teams that lost in early rounds.
I prefer the first method because It cuts off any discussion of how similar two rosters must be to be considered the same team. For example would the Matt Cassel led patriots of 2008 that went 11-5 be considered the same team as the 2007 patriots?