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Rod Martin, John Mobley and Andre Wadsworth

Posted by Chase Stuart on March 19, 2010

Which colleges lead the way when it comes to quantity and quality of NFL draft picks? That's the question I set out to answer today. Here's what I did:

  • I started in 1967, when the AFL and NFL began holding a common draft. I looked at every NFL draft from 1967 to 2009.
  • I then gave each player the value that his draft slot was worth; I used the pick value chart I derived two years ago, which closely resembles the famous NFL draft chart that many sources cite (but I chose to use my values since the reasons why the two charts diverge are precisely why, for this sort of study, my values are preferred).
  • I then gave each school, in each season, the sum of all of the draft values of all of its players drafted. This gives each school a season grade. To come up with a program grade, I used the draft values in the three years before and after the year in question (along with that season). So the 2000 Oklahoma State Cowboys' program value would be the sum of the OSU seasonal grades from '97 to '03. Because of this, I only have program grades from '70 to '06.

Which college-seasons come out on top?

Year/Team Draft Value Player (Pk)
1977 USC 282 Ricky Bell (1)
282 Marvin Powell (4)
282 Gary Jeter (5)
282 Dave R. Lewis (29)
282 Shelton Diggs (120)
282 Donnie Hickman (130)
282 Vince Evans (140)
282 Mike Burns (141)
282 Ron Bush (181)
282 Eric D. Williams (216)
282 Clint Strozier (222)
282 Dave Farmer (287)
282 Rod Martin (317)
1984 Texas 269 Mossy Cade (6)
269 Mike Ruether (17)
269 Ed Williams (43)
269 Doug Dawson (45)
269 Fred Acorn (57)
269 Rick McIvor (80)
269 Craig Curry (93)
269 Eric Holle (117)
269 Jitter Fields (123)
269 Jeff Leiding (129)
269 John Haines (180)
269 Ray Woodard (199)
269 David J. Jones (214)
269 John Walker (241)
269 Adam Schreiber (243)
269 Kirk McJunkin (276)
269 Bobby Micho (272)
269 Mark Lang (314)
1993 Notre Dame 269 Rick Mirer (2)
269 Jerome Bettis (10)
269 Tom Carter (17)
269 Irv Smith (20)
269 Demetrious DuBose (34)
269 Reggie Brooks (45)
269 Devon McDonald (107)
269 Lindsay Knapp (130)
269 Craig Hentrich (200)
1981 Pittsburgh 266 Hugh Green (7)
266 Randy McMillan (12)
266 Mark May (20)
266 Rickey Jackson (51)
266 Greg Meisner (63)
266 Carlton Williamson (65)
266 Russ Grimm (69)
266 Bill Neill (115)
266 Benjie Pryor (120)
266 Lynn Thomas (121)
266 Jerry Boyarsky (128)
266 Rick Trocano (292)
1987 Miami (FL) 263 Vinny Testaverde (1)
263 Alonzo Highsmith (3)
263 Jerome Brown (9)
263 Gregg Rakoczy (32)
263 Winston Moss (50)
263 Dan Sileo (2)
263 Paul O'Connor (140)
263 Darryl Oliver (297)
1984 Nebraska 252 Irving Fryar (1)
252 Dean Steinkuhler (2)
252 Mike Rozier (2)
252 Turner Gill (64)
252 Mark Schellen (80)
252 Scott Raridon (145)
2000 Tennessee 246 Jamal Lewis (5)
246 Shaun Ellis (12)
246 Raynoch Thompson (41)
246 Chad Clifton (44)
246 Dwayne Goodrich (49)
246 Cosey Coleman (51)
246 Deon Grant (57)
246 Darwin Walker (71)
246 Tee Martin (163)
1984 Oklahoma 244 Rick Bryan (9)
244 Jackie Shipp (14)
244 Dwight Drane (14)
244 Bob Slater (31)
244 Darryl Goodlow (32)
244 Scott Case (32)
244 Thomas Benson (36)
244 Paul Parker (325)
1988 Miami (FL) 243 Bennie Blades (3)
243 Michael Irvin (11)
243 Danny Stubbs (33)
243 Brian Blades (49)
243 Brett Perriman (52)
243 Matt Patchan (64)
243 Darrell Fullington (124)
243 Melvin Bratton (153)
243 Warren Williams (155)
243 Alfredo Roberts (197)
243 Derwin Jones (269)
243 George Jr. Mira (331)
1980 USC 242 Anthony Munoz (3)
242 Brad Budde (11)
242 Charles White (27)
242 Larry McGrew (45)
242 Myron Lapka (64)
242 Ray Butler (88)
242 Dennis Johnson (92)
242 Paul McDonald (109)
242 Chris Foote (144)
242 Billy Mullins (2)
1988 Oklahoma 234 Rickey Dixon (5)
234 Keith Jackson (13)
234 Dante Jones (51)
234 Mark Hutson (67)
234 Greg Johnson (99)
234 Lydell Carr (106)
234 Darrell Reed (116)
234 Troy A. Johnson (133)
234 Jon Phillips (148)
234 Derrick White (164)
234 Derrick Crudup (171)
234 Caesar Rentie (189)
234 Patrick Collins (200)
1982 Texas 232 Kenneth Sims (1)
232 Bruce Scholtz (33)
232 Terry Tausch (39)
232 Lawrence Sampleton (47)
232 Rodney Tate (110)
232 Mike Baab (115)
232 Vance Bedford (119)
232 William Graham (127)
232 Joe Shearin (181)
232 A.J. Jones (202)
232 John Goodson (209)
232 Mike Hatchett (230)
1995 Colorado 226 Michael Westbrook (4)
226 Rashaan Salaam (21)
226 Christian Fauria (39)
226 Ted Johnson (57)
226 Kordell Stewart (60)
226 Darius Holland (65)
226 Chris Hudson (71)
226 Derek West (149)
226 Shannon Clavelle (185)
226 Tony Berti (200)
1976 Oklahoma 226 Lee Roy Selmon (1)
226 Joe Washington (4)
226 Billy Brooks (11)
226 Dewey Selmon (60)
226 Tinker Owens (95)
226 Jimbo Elrod (144)
226 Tony DiRienzo (212)
1971 Ohio St. 224 John Brockington (9)
224 Jack Tatum (19)
224 William Anderson (23)
224 Leo Hayden (24)
224 Jan White (29)
224 Jim Stillwagon (124)
224 Doug Adams (165)
224 Mike Sensibaugh (191)
224 Larry Zelina (196)
224 Bruce Jankowski (250)
224 Rex Kern (260)
224 Mark Debevc (405)
224 Ron Maciejowski (376)
1994 Notre Dame 220 Bryant Young (7)
220 Aaron Taylor (16)
220 Jeff Burris (27)
220 Tim Ruddy (65)
220 Jim Flanigan (74)
220 Willie Clark (82)
220 Lake Dawson (92)
220 John Covington (133)
220 Tony Peterson (153)
220 Pete Bercich (211)
1998 Florida St. 219 Andre Wadsworth (3)
219 Tra Thomas (11)
219 Sam Cowart (39)
219 Samari Rolle (46)
219 E.G. Green (71)
219 Greg Spires (83)
219 Julian Pittman (99)
219 Shevin Smith (184)
219 Kevin Long (229)
1973 Purdue 219 Dave Butz (5)
219 Otis Armstrong (9)
219 Darryl Stingley (19)
219 Gary Hrivnak (48)
219 Steve Baumgartner (51)
219 Gregg Bingham (79)
219 Brent Myers (153)
219 Donn Smith (173)
1997 Florida St. 218 Peter Boulware (4)
218 Walter Jones (6)
218 Warrick Dunn (12)
218 Reinard Wilson (14)
218 Henri Crockett (100)
218 Vernon Crawford (159)
218 Byron Capers (225)
1972 Notre Dame 217 Walt Patulski (1)
217 Clarence Ellis (15)
217 Mike Kadish (25)
217 Fred Swendsen (53)
217 Eric Patton (86)
217 Tom Gatewood (107)
217 Ralph Stepaniak (157)
217 Mike Zikas (177)
1974 Tennessee St. 216 Too Tall Jones (1)
216 Waymond Bryant (4)
216 John Holland (29)
216 Greg Kindle (33)
216 Carl Wafer (42)
216 Ed Gatewood (331)
1997 Ohio St. 215 Orlando Pace (1)
215 Shawn Springs (3)
215 Rob Kelly (33)
215 Ty Howard (84)
215 Mike Vrabel (91)
215 Nicky Sualua (129)
215 Mike Finkes (189)
1971 Grambling St. 214 Richard Harris (5)
214 Frank Lewis (8)
214 Sam Holden (31)
214 Scott Lewis (42)
214 Virgil Robinson (46)
214 Joe Carter (80)
214 Willie Armstrong (109)
214 Coleman Zeno (434)
1974 Penn St. 212 Ed O'Neil (8)
212 John Cappelletti (11)
212 Doug Allen (27)
212 Charlie Getty (41)
212 Mark Markovich (43)
212 Gary Hayman (106)
212 Randy Crowder (136)
212 Phil LaPorta (217)
212 Charles Herd (256)
212 Tom Hull (294)
1973 USC 211 Charle Young (6)
211 Sam Cunningham (11)
211 Pete Adams (22)
211 Jeff Winans (32)
211 Allen Gallaher (82)
211 Edesel Garrison (105)
211 John Grant (166)
211 Mike Rae (205)
211 Karl Lorch (234)
211 Mike Ryan (439)
1995 Florida St. 210 Derrick L. Alexander (11)
210 Devin Bush (26)
210 Derrick Brooks (28)
210 Corey Fuller (55)
210 Zack Crockett (79)
210 Tamarick Vanover (81)
210 Chris Cowart (100)
210 Clifton Abraham (143)
210 Kez McCorvey (156)
210 'Omar Ellison (162)
1982 Penn St. 210 Mike Munchak (8)
210 Sean Farrell (17)
210 Leo Wisniewski (28)
210 Jim Romano (37)
210 Vyto Kab (78)
210 Paul Lankford (80)
210 Mike Meade (126)
210 Chet Parlavecchio (152)
210 Matt Bradley (234)
210 Rich D'Amico (263)
1983 USC 210 Bruce Matthews (9)
210 Joey Browner (19)
210 Don Mosebar (26)
210 George Achica (57)
210 August Curley (94)
210 Kelly Thomas (99)
210 Riki Ellison (117)
210 Byron Darby (120)
210 Jeff Simmons (171)
210 Troy West (200)
210 John Harvey (327)
1991 Miami (FL) 209 Russell Maryland (1)
209 Randal Hill (23)
209 Shane Curry (40)
209 Wesley Carroll (42)
209 Robert Bailey (107)
209 Craig Erickson (131)
209 Mike Sullivan (153)
209 Roland Smith (220)
209 Randy Bethel (251)
209 Luis Cristobal (278)
209 Alex Johnson (325)
2000 Florida St. 206 Peter Warrick (4)
206 Corey Simon (6)
206 Sebastian Janikowski (17)
206 Ron Dugans (66)
206 Laveranues Coles (78)
206 Jerry Johnson (101)
206 Mario Edwards (180)
1990 USC 204 Junior Seau (5)
204 Mark A. Carrier (6)
204 Dan Owens (35)
204 Tim Ryan (61)
204 William Schultz (94)
204 Leroy Holt (137)
204 Scott Galbraith (178)
204 Aaron Emanuel (191)
204 Brad Leggett (219)
204 Ernest Spears (267)
1975 Ohio St. 204 Kurt Schumacher (12)
204 Doug France (20)
204 Neal Colzie (24)
204 Peter Cusick (66)
204 Steve Luke (88)
204 Champ Henson (89)
204 Bruce Elia (100)
204 Jim Cope (119)
204 Dave Hazel (261)
204 Steve Myers (275)
204 Doug Plank (291)
204 Larry O'Rourke (354)
204 Mike Bartoszek (430)
1978 Notre Dame 202 Ken MacAfee (7)
202 Ross Browner (8)
202 Luther Bradley (11)
202 Willie Fry (49)
202 Ernie Hughes (79)
202 Ted Burgmeier (111)
202 Steve McDaniels (249)
202 Doug Becker (268)
1992 Washington 202 Steve Emtman (1)
202 Dana Hall (18)
202 Ed Cunningham (61)
202 Siupeli Malamala (68)
202 Aaron Pierce (69)
202 Orlando McKay (130)
202 Mario Bailey (162)
202 Don Jones (245)
202 Kris Rongen (290)
202 Chico Fraley (319)
202 Brett Collins (314)
1976 Colorado 201 Pete Brock (12)
201 Troy Archer (13)
201 Mark Koncar (23)
201 Steve Young (61)
201 Dave Logan (65)
201 Mike C. McCoy (72)
201 Dave Williams (208)
201 Bob Simpson (230)
201 Terry Kunz (231)
201 Whitney Paul (277)
201 Gary Campbell (291)
201 Dan O'Rourke (368)
1987 Penn St. 200 Shane Conlan (8)
200 D.J. Dozier (14)
200 Tim Manoa (80)
200 Steve Smith (81)
200 Don Graham (84)
200 John Bruno (126)
200 Chris Conlin (132)
200 Tim Johnson (141)
200 Bob White (162)
200 Dan Morgan (222)
200 Bob Ontko (247)
200 Brian Siverling (286)
200 Sid Lewis (268)

Which programs were the best using the seven-year window defined earlier?

college year grade
Miami (FL) 2004 1340
Miami (FL) 2003 1307
Miami (FL) 1990 1264
USC 1980 1263
Miami (FL) 2005 1228
USC 2006 1221
Miami (FL) 2002 1199
Florida St. 1998 1163
Miami (FL) 2001 1148
Miami (FL) 1988 1148
USC 1971 1142
Notre Dame 1991 1140
Miami (FL) 1989 1135
Notre Dame 1992 1112
USC 1978 1104
USC 1982 1097
USC 1983 1094
USC 1979 1081
USC 1970 1077
Notre Dame 1993 1074
Florida St. 1995 1072
USC 1981 1065
Miami (FL) 1987 1064
Florida St. 1997 1061
USC 1974 1054
Florida St. 2000 1048
Miami (FL) 2000 1041
USC 1977 1039
Miami (FL) 1991 1034
Notre Dame 1994 1028
USC 1972 1024
Miami (FL) 1986 1018
Florida St. 1996 1010
Florida St. 2003 1010
Florida St. 1999 1010
Ohio St. 2006 1009
USC 1976 1008
USC 2005 1004
Penn St. 1981 989
Ohio St. 2004 979
Miami (FL) 2006 979
USC 1975 976
Notre Dame 1990 973
Tennessee 2000 967
Oklahoma 1978 966
Miami (FL) 1985 958
Ohio St. 2005 951
Ohio St. 1996 947
Tennessee 1999 944
Penn St. 1982 940
Tennessee 2001 939
Notre Dame 1970 939
Ohio St. 1997 939
USC 1984 938
Florida St. 1994 933
Florida 2000 927
Nebraska 1981 922
Ohio St. 2003 921
Florida St. 2001 920
Florida St. 1992 913
Florida St. 2004 911
Oklahoma 1979 910
Miami (FL) 1992 909
USC 1973 909
Tennessee 1997 907
Florida 2001 903
Penn St. 1980 900
Texas 1981 889
Nebraska 1982 889
Penn St. 1984 882
Ohio St. 1994 881
Oklahoma 1977 881
Notre Dame 1995 876
Miami (FL) 1999 874
Colorado 1977 873
Oklahoma 1982 872
Oklahoma 1981 872
Florida 1999 872
Florida St. 2002 867
Ohio St. 1974 865
USC 1993 860
Georgia 2002 855
Penn St. 1983 847
Tennessee 1998 846
Oklahoma 1976 842
Texas 1983 842
Pittsburgh 1984 840
Texas 1982 839
Georgia 2004 838
USC 1985 837
Ohio St. 2002 835
Florida St. 1993 833
Ohio St. 1977 828
Penn St. 1985 827
Ohio St. 1976 826
Colorado 1994 826
Texas 2004 823
Ohio St. 1999 822
Florida 1998 822
Miami (FL) 1994 821
Miami (FL) 1993 819
Ohio St. 1973 818
Oklahoma 1983 817
Notre Dame 1996 817
Ohio St. 1995 817
Nebraska 1983 815
Penn St. 1977 811
Florida 2002 809
Notre Dame 1972 808
Tennessee 1993 804
Penn St. 1979 800

There are many things we can do with these data, especially when you combine it with Doug's AV system. I did just that, looking at players in the drafts from '70 to '01 (I didn't want too many active players in my sample). While there will be future blog posts related to this idea, I wanted to throw out three interesting names that popped out to me after three quick searches:

  • Very few players were really late draft picks from elite powerhouse schools and became NFL studs. Rod Martin fits that description best; he was the 317th pick in the 1977 draft, a 12th round selection by the Raiders. But Martin came from USC, which had a program strength of 1038; Martin has a career AV of 75 and intercepted three interceptions in Super Bowl XV. How could a player who came from such a good school (he was also a first-team All-Pac 10 choice in '76) and obviously was an elite talent (2-time Pro Bowler, first-team AP All-Pro in '84, ten year starter) slip in the draft? Other players who fit the description: Jessie Armstead (1993 Miami (FL); program strength of 813, AV of 79, pick 207 in the draft); Brad Johnson (1992 Florida St.; 908, 74, 227); Charlie Johnson (1977 Colorado; 865, 70, 175); Tom Brady (2000 Michigan; 577, 104, 199); Marvcus Patton (1990 UCLA; 625, 64, 208) and Anthony Carter (1983 Michigan; 605, 63, 334).
  • John Mobley was probably the most "who? from where?" pick from '70 to '01. Only three top-15 picks from those years did not have a fellow schoolmate get selected in that draft, the three prior drafts, or the three subsequent drafts. Eric Swann (Wake Technical CC) and John Small (Citadel) were the only other players; Swann doesn't really count -- he didn't attend college, and ended up playing semi-pro football while enrolled at Wake Tech Community College; as for Small, the Citadel at least has some NFL alumni. Mobley came from Kutztown college, which hasn't had another NFL player since and only had one other player (11 years earlier) get drafted. That player? Andre Reed, in the 4th round of the 1986 draft. What makes Mobley's selection even more interesting to me is that he was juxtaposed next to Eddie George. Mobley was the 15th pick in the '96 draft, while George went #14 overall from Ohio State, one of the elite programs of the day. It's a good example of how, at least in some respects, the NFL draft market is the great equalizer. Someone from the 2nd strongest program of the day (Florida State was #1 at 1010, OSU second at 947) wound up being selected right next to someone from Kutztown College.
  • Andre Wadsworth, at least in one way, grades as the biggest bust over this period because of how safe he appeared. Unlike Ryan Leaf, Wadsworth came from the powerhouse of powerhouses, Florida State. In '98, FSU was by far the top program when it came to NFL draft circles (1163); Tennessee (846) and Florida (742) were the next strongest schools at the time. Yet Wadsworth, the 3rd pick in the '98 draft, had a career AV of only thirteen. Wadsworth was one of four players to come from programs with grades of over 1000 to be selected in the top 15 and to have a career AV of 15 or lower. Alonzo Highsmith (Miami (FL) 1987), Derek Brown (Notre Dame 1992) and Reinard Wilson (FSU 1997) were the other three.

This entry was posted on Friday, March 19th, 2010 at 7:49 am and is filed under History, NFL Draft, Statgeekery. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.