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Approximate Time of Knockout, Part II

Posted by Chase Stuart on May 21, 2010

Last Friday, I looked at something called the Approximate Time of Knockout. There were some great suggestions in the comments about improving the system, but unfortunately time and/or a lack of available data made most of them impossible to implement by today. First, let's take a look at the 2009 results, using exactly the same formula from last week:


TM YR GMS Wins AKO Avg
NYJ 2009 16 9 344.3 21.5
GNB 2009 16 11 332.5 20.8
NWE 2009 16 10 321.8 20.1
IND 2009 16 14 309.8 19.4
MIN 2009 16 12 307.9 19.2
NOR 2009 16 13 306.5 19.2
PHI 2009 16 11 302.3 18.9
SDG 2009 16 13 280.8 17.5
ARI 2009 16 10 273.8 17.1
BAL 2009 16 9 267.0 16.7
DAL 2009 16 11 265.3 16.6
SFO 2009 16 8 258.8 16.2
ATL 2009 16 9 238.0 14.9
CAR 2009 16 8 222.5 13.9
CIN 2009 16 10 222.5 13.9
DEN 2009 16 8 212.5 13.3
NYG 2009 16 8 200.5 12.5
HOU 2009 16 9 192.3 12.0
CHI 2009 16 7 135.0 8.4
PIT 2009 16 9 129.6 8.1
SEA 2009 16 5 127.5 8.0
CLE 2009 16 5 123.0 7.7
TEN 2009 16 8 107.0 6.7
MIA 2009 16 7 101.0 6.3
BUF 2009 16 6 99.3 6.2
JAX 2009 16 7 99.0 6.2
WAS 2009 16 4 82.5 5.2
KAN 2009 16 4 66.3 4.1
OAK 2009 16 5 57.5 3.6
TAM 2009 16 3 28.5 1.8
DET 2009 16 2 15.0 0.9
STL 2009 16 1 5.0 0.3

Over at Footballguys.com, we have play by play data for the past eight seasons, including time on the clock when the play began. All of the data has been entered manually by some terrific volunteers, but it would be unwise to presume that there were no errors in the group. Further, the play-by-play data looks at scrimmage plays, so when a field goal provides the ultimate margin of victory, a bit of time will elapse between the actual kick being good and the next offensive play. That said, I took all of the 2009 games and recorded the actual time of knockout in every game. Here's how the list above would change if we use the real knockout time as opposed to the approximate knockout time:

Team Wins KO Avg
NYJ 9 332.8 20.8
GNB 11 301.0 18.8
MIN 12 280.3 17.5
NWE 10 277.1 17.3
NOR 13 269.5 16.8
PHI 11 262.2 16.4
IND 14 251.4 15.7
ARI 10 237.6 14.8
DAL 11 237.5 14.8
BAL 9 223.0 13.9
SDG 13 220.4 13.8
SFO 8 219.0 13.7
CAR 8 204.5 12.8
ATL 9 201.5 12.6
NYG 8 182.8 11.4
DEN 8 180.8 11.3
HOU 9 178.2 11.1
CIN 10 173.4 10.8
CHI 7 114.8 7.2
SEA 5 109.8 6.9
PIT 9 104.3 6.5
CLE 5 91.1 5.7
TEN 8 76.8 4.8
BUF 6 76.3 4.8
MIA 7 73.7 4.6
JAX 7 70.8 4.4
WAS 4 59.3 3.7
KAN 4 55.5 3.5
OAK 5 34.2 2.1
TAM 3 24.2 1.5
DET 2 2.6 0.2
STL 1 0.9 0.1

We can also take the flip side of this and look at the time of knockout for the losing team:

Team Losses KO Avg
STL 15 -415.3 -26.0
OAK 11 -401.1 -25.1
DET 14 -328.1 -20.5
SEA 11 -297.7 -18.6
TAM 13 -297.4 -18.6
CLE 11 -288.6 -18.0
JAX 9 -253.9 -15.9
BUF 10 -204.3 -12.8
KAN 12 -199.1 -12.4
CHI 9 -195.3 -12.2
NYG 8 -193.9 -12.1
TEN 8 -193.8 -12.1
WAS 12 -181.8 -11.4
CAR 8 -168.8 -10.5
ARI 6 -162.2 -10.1
ATL 7 -158.4 -9.9
DEN 8 -147.5 -9.2
PHI 5 -133.4 -8.3
SFO 8 -112.5 -7.0
CIN 6 -109.6 -6.9
MIA 9 -108.1 -6.8
BAL 7 -91.2 -5.7
NYJ 7 -77.9 -4.9
HOU 7 -75.4 -4.7
NWE 6 -58.4 -3.6
NOR 3 -49.6 -3.1
IND 2 -48.7 -3.0
MIN 4 -48.5 -3.0
GNB 5 -41.5 -2.6
SDG 3 -38.5 -2.4
PIT 7 -31.7 -2.0
DAL 5 -15.2 -0.9

(Note that all regular season games are included in here, so the Carolina blowout in week 17 against the Saints really hurts their score, while both games where the Colts removed Peyton Manning drag down their average.)

Finally, let's look at "net time of knockout," calculated by subtracting all time of knockout losses from all time of knockout wins:

Team Wins NKO Avg
GNB 11 259.5 16.2
NYJ 9 255.0 15.9
MIN 12 231.8 14.5
DAL 11 222.3 13.9
NOR 13 219.9 13.7
NWE 10 218.8 13.7
IND 14 202.7 12.7
SDG 13 181.9 11.4
BAL 9 131.8 8.2
PHI 11 128.8 8.0
SFO 8 106.5 6.7
HOU 9 102.8 6.4
ARI 10 75.4 4.7
PIT 9 72.5 4.5
CIN 10 63.8 4.0
ATL 9 43.1 2.7
CAR 8 35.7 2.2
DEN 8 33.3 2.1
NYG 8 -11.1 -0.7
MIA 7 -34.4 -2.2
CHI 7 -80.5 -5.0
TEN 8 -117.0 -7.3
WAS 4 -122.6 -7.7
BUF 6 -128.0 -8.0
KAN 4 -143.6 -9.0
JAX 7 -183.0 -11.4
SEA 5 -187.8 -11.7
CLE 5 -197.5 -12.3
TAM 3 -273.1 -17.1
DET 2 -325.5 -20.3
OAK 5 -366.8 -22.9
STL 1 -414.4 -25.9

I invite you, the reader, to tell us what (if anything) can be gleamed from this data.

This entry was posted on Friday, May 21st, 2010 at 7:30 am and is filed under Statgeekery. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.