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ShareThisCheckdowns: Brady Quinn, Charlie Whitehurst and draft value
In the past two weeks, two QBs were traded in the NFL.
- First, Brady Quinn was traded to the Broncos in exchange for Peyton Hillis, a 2011 sixth round pick and a conditional 2012 pick based on Quinn's playing time. Breaking it down into the pieces, we've got: a) not much (Hillis); b) the equivalent value of a 2010 seventh round pick (the 2011 pick) and the equivalent value of very late 2010 pick. I think it's probably generous to say the value of the package the Broncos are sending to Denver is an early to mid 2010 sixth round pick.
- A few days later, the Seahawks acquired Charlie Whitehurst from the Chargers by moving down from the 40th pick in the second round to the 60th pick and by sending San Diego their third-round pick in the 2011 draft. On my draft value chart, Seattle moving from #40 to #60, along with giving up a 3rd rounder next year (valued as a mid-4th round pick this season), is roughly equivalent to trading the 77th pick.
So we can gather that Quinn was worth a 6th round pick and Whitehurst was worth a 3rd round pick. The obvious follow up question is, why? We don't know too much about either player, but here's what we know so far:
Whitehurst was the 81st pick in the 2006 draft; Quinn was the 22nd pick in the 2007 draft. Whitehurst is two years older than Quinn -- he'll turn 28 in August, Quinn will turn 26 in October. Whitehurst has never thrown a pass in four seasons, which is exactly the position Quinn or any other QB would be in if Philip Rivers was on his team's roster. Quinn has been promoted and demoted alongside Derek Anderson for the past three seasons; neither Browns QB has looked very good.
So did Whitehurst improve his stock so much from sitting and learning behind Rivers in a Norv Turner offense? Or did Quinn just look so bad that his value went in the tank? Would you rather have Quinn and a 3rd round pick or Whitehurst and a 6th round pick?
This entry was posted on Wednesday, March 24th, 2010 at 12:25 pm and is filed under Checkdowns. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.
The history of trading for untested backups is one someone should examine more closely. This happens with alarmingly frequency, and there doesn't always seem to be a rhyme or reason to how these guys are valued.
Jacksonville gave up a 3rd and a 5th for Mark Brunell. Seattle gave up a 1 and a 7 for Matt Hasselbeck. Buffalo gave up a first round pick for Rob Johnson (a pick that the Panthers turned into Fred Taylor). The Texans traded two 2nd round picks for Schaub, who had started 2 games in three years. Favre was a second round pick of the Falcons, traded a year later for a first round pick without having had any meaningful playing time. There are plenty of other recent examples.
that's actually not too bad of a success rate, especially when you compare it to the other ways you might go about finding a new QB.
Matt Hasselbeck was acquired for a third-round pick and a swap of firsts. The Packers also chipped in a seventh-round pick.
Matt Schaub was acquired for two seconds and a swap of firsts.
Rob Johnson was traded from Jacksonville, not Carolina. Buffalo gave up a first-round pick and a fourth-round pick.
A.J. Feeley was traded from Philadelphia to Miami for a second-round pick.
Cleo Lemon was traded from San Diego to Miami for A.J. Feeley and a draft pick.
Daunte Culpepper was traded from Minnesota to Miami for a second-round pick.
Steve Young was traded from Tampa Bay to San Francisco for a second-round pick and a fourth-round pick.
Mark Brunell was traded from Green Bay to Jacksonville for a third-round pick (became FB William Henderson) and fifth-round pick (became RB Travis Jervey).
Aaron Brooks and TE Lamont Hall were traded from Green Bay to New Orleans for a third-round pick and LB K.D. Williams.
Brett Favre was acquired from Atlanta for 1992 first-round choice (17th overall, through Phi.; Atlanta then dealt choice to Dallas for 19th selection and fourth-round 1992 choice; Dallas chose CB Kevin Smith with No. 17)
Speaking of draft value, is there a form that returns the total current AV of all picks in a given draft/year per team?
I know I can -- and probably will -- do this with a spreadsheet if I download each draft in CSV format.
Just wondering if the query/form method already exists.
P.S. Thanks for the fantastic job you guys are doing with this site.
Charlie Whitehurst, 3rd round pick with 0 pass attempts and 1 rush attempt in 4 seasons.
Jeff Hostetler, 3rd round pick with 0 pass attempts and 1 rush attempt in 4 seasons.
Seattle can only hope Whitehurst turns out to be as valuable.
Here are the only 8 QBs to throw over 1000 passes in their career that had fewer than 100 attempts in their first 4 seasons:
Jake Delhomme - 86 pass attempts in 6 games (2 starts) his first 4 seasons
Jim Miller - 81 pass attempts in 5 games with 1 start
Billy Kilmer - 77 pass attempts in 39 games as he was being used as a back early on
Brad Johnson - 73 pass attempts in 9 games
Len Dawson - 30 pass attempts in 21 games with 1 start. Only HOFer listed
Gary Hogeboom - 25 pass attempts in 13 games
Trent Green - 1 pass attempt as he played 0 games in 1993 & 95-96 and was out of the league in 94.
Jeff Hostetler - 0 pass attempts in 18 games, 1 rush.
Now, I'm a Chargers fan so I'm obviously delighted that we've converted our third string QB into a pick in the "interesting" part of the 2nd round i.e. where "best player available" should be someone with a 1st round grade. However I don't think the trade is necessarily as bad for SEA as it might seem on the face of it. Whitehurst should be at worst a servicable QB & I'm making the assumption that they've seen enough to know that although he's not Phillip Rivers he's good enough to get a few wins for a few years & might breakout. I'd take that risk for the price they ended up paying. Also, once they started shopping for their QB the shelf was starting to look a little bare so servicable becomes more valuable.
RE Quinn, I liked him coming out of college & his performance in CLE shouldn't really be held against him because of the dysfunctional nature of the organisation. I think Denver won hugely on this deal as the price they paid is so incredibly low, I'm amazed CLE couldn't get at least a third for him. Now Quinn may well not have "it" and may be a 1st round bust but it's early enough for him to take the second chance he's been given and make something of himself and McDaniels might be a good enough QB coach to do it - unfortunately it's not happening anywhere I can actully wish him well
Speaking generally, in a QB poor year (and QB rich years are very rare) I think making this sort of dealsis a very sensible move. The cost (even for Whitehurst) is relatively low compared to the chance of decent productivity from a key position.
I remember watching Charlie Whitehurst play at Chattahoochee High School in Alpharetta, GA (we were there roughly the same time) and thinking he was a decent QB, and being surprised he got the starting job at Clemson. So I watched him play for Clemson, and thought he was a decent enough QB for them, and being mildly surprised when he got drafted. So now here we are with him being traded for a 3rd rounder and the opportunity to move up 20 spots in a (supposedly) loaded draft...and maybe all these people just know something I don't...
I think we just have to accept that NFL front offices have access to vastly more information about QBs who have received little or no playing time than we do. If they know people on the staff of the current team, or speak to former assistant coaches, they can get a meaningful insight into work habits and performance in practice. They also presumably have detailed scouting breakdowns of the player in college and pre-season, and frankly the amateur/journalistic community's scouting is nowhere near the standard of an NFL team's. Personally, I was pretty high on Whitehurst coming out of college, and thought he should have been drafted earlier in the first place, so I like this move for the Seahawks. Cleveland's offense was dire across the board last year (Joe Thomas aside), so I think it's tough to fairly assess Quinn. He may well be a bust, but I think that he has an awful lot of upside for such a low price tag. That said, I think I think Hillis is worth more than I think you think he is. The Browns can trade him to Houston for a fun sized mars bar and a bag of balls any time they like, as far as this Texans fan is concerned.
NFL front offices like to dream. Had Charlie Whitehurst started a few games, I can almost guarantee the Seahawks wouldn't have given up as much as they did, because they'd have seen him throw a few incomplete passes and maybe some interceptions, and all of a sudden those dreams are substituted by reality. But by virtue of never playing, Whitehurst is probably a lot more valuable. Teams have seen Brady Quinn throw incompletions and interceptions; they haven't seen Whitehurst do anything. He could be great!
The fact that he was stuck behind Billy Volek on the depth chart, however, is apparently irrelevant.
To me, this has the feel of "Moneyball". The general consensus on QBs - which I happen to believe - is that it takes roughly three years to develop a college QB into a quality pro QB. And if so, what is the most economic market to find one? A top draft pick that will cost millions and a top draft pick, or one in the 'QB after-market' that costs far less money and a much lower draft pick?
If you're just a QB away from having a great team, this may not be the best plan, but if you have many holes to fill, this makes perfect sense to me. The true value of a 3 year career back-up may not be much lower, but the cost is definitely way lower.
I think what you have here is a Broncos GM that does not understand the value of NFL players, to be honest.