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ShareThisCheckdowns: Median draft position vs. 2009 AV
Just a quick data dump here; I looked at the 2009 AV numbers (to hit the site soon, I promise) and noted how much AV all players at each position accumulated. I then sorted all of the players by draft position, and noted at what draft spot the median AV was hit. So, for example, roughly half of the AV by all QBs last season came by QBs drafted at #24 or earlier. That is to say, Peyton Manning, Eli Manning, Carson Palmer, Alex Smith, Matthew Stafford, Donovan McNabb, Matt Ryan, Vince Young, Philip Rivers, Mark Sanchez, Kerry Collins, Ben Roethlisberger, Jay Cutler, Josh Freeman, Joe Flacco, Brady Quinn and Aaron Rodgers produced about as much value as every other QB in the league last season. Below shows the draft pick # where half of that position's AV was accumulated during the 2009 season:
pos pick QB 24 ILB 40 CB 45 T 50 WR 54 RB 55 DE 57 TE 69 OLB 71 DT 77 S 84 G 108 C 173
If there's any surprise here, it's (at least to me) at inside linebacker. But with superstars like Patrick Willis, Jon Beason and Ray Lewis, along with DeMeco Ryans, Jonathan Vilma, A.J Hawk, James Farrior, Jerod Mayo, Takeo Spikes, D.J. Williams and Karlos Dansby, a large number of star inside linebackers were high picks. Only three ILB/MLBs selected outside of the top 40 had 10 points of AV last year or more -- the Bengals' Dhani Jones and the Jets pair of inside 'backers, Bart Scott and David Harris.
This entry was posted on Thursday, April 8th, 2010 at 9:33 pm and is filed under Checkdowns, NFL Draft. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.
These checkdown posts are both interesting and concise. Thank you.
Those are 18 quality QB starters... I'm kind of surprised the median draft position is so low!
Hey Chase, do you think you guys will be able to fix the draft query bug that prevents AV showing up for guys who debuted a year+ after being drafted (problem starts in 2006)? Tied into that, will you be fixing the 2008 AV for those guys? To name a few, Jacob Ford, Chansi Stuckey, Mike Richardson, Steve Vallos, Justin King, Antonio Johnson, Nate Garner, Josh Johnson, Mansfield Wrotto, Brandon Frye, David Clowney, Andy Alleman, Michael Bush
Some of those guys just show up wrong on the draft page (i.e. there is no blue link to their profile and no stats or AV listed), others seem to have incorrect AV listed on their profile page (the OL and DL/LB guys seem to be the most affected with the 0 AV error)
Re: #2 Omroth--I'm guessing Warner, Brady, Favre, Brees, Romo, & Bulger (to a lesser extent) drag that down. Favre & Brees were drafted in the high 30's, but Warner & Romo were UDFA's, and Brady & Bulger were drafted in the 6th round. Those are enough "outliers" (the last 4) to really "drag it down", so to speak. Brady by himself wouldn't, but the four together would. Favre & Brees help a little, but especially with their high totals of AV.
I don't think having them as outliers really effects it that much. They did the median, so it doesn't matter how far away from the 24th, as long as they were drafted after the 24th pick, then they count in the other group. I'm guessing if they did the mean the results would be fairly different.
Shouldn't AJ Hawk be grouped with the OLBs instead of the ILBs? After all, he was drafted to play OLB in 2006 but was moved to ILB when Dom Capers shifted the Packers from a 4-3 defense to a 3-4.
Hey Mike,
I'm looking at 2009 value, so I'm looking at how the players in 2009 performed and then where they were drafted. Among all value generated by inside linebackers this year -- and Hawk was one of them -- half of the value came by players selected in the top 40.
Omroth, Joseph et al - 4 of the top six in passing yardage last year were drafted below the median position (Schaub, Romo, Brady, Brees) as were three of the six pro bowlers (Brady, Brees, Favre). Other productive players not yet mentioned include Orton, Campbell and Garrard. I'm guessing the variance of the AVs of players drafted after #24 is considerably larger than that of the higher drafted guys.
Speaking of AV:
Chase,
Players such as London Fletcher, Roman Harper, and Jon Beason are not credited with Pro Bowl selections for 2009 and Darren Sharper is not credited with an AP 1st team All-Pro selection. I know these accolades are involved in the AV number so I just wanted to give a heads up.
I like some of the youngsters coming out like Mark Sanchez, Joe Flacco, and Matt Ryan. It is becoming a quarterback league!