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ShareThisWhat would be the NFL equivalent of the Miami Heat?
LeBron James's decision to leave Cleveland for Miami was... Well, I don't know what it was exactly, but there are certainly a lot of interesting elements to it. If you have something you'd like to get off your chest regarding LeBron and his decision, I'd invite you to discuss it in the comments to Neil's post at the basketball-reference blog, where all viewpoints are represented and discussed in a mostly-very-thoughtful manner befitting the sports-reference community.
But I want to go in a different direction.
To me, the most interesting aspect of The New NBA is this: exactly how good will the Miami Heat be for the next few years? My understanding is that they're going to roll with two of the best three or five players in the NBA, another top-20 player, and nine scrubs to be named later. Since that's never happened before, it's not clear how it will actually work. I like it when things that have never happened before happen in the sports world, because it gives us a chance to add to what we know about the way things work. Neil reviewed the literature on the topic at the basketball-ref blog if you want to check that out, but let's use this post to instead speculate on the meaningless-but-fun topic of what a Miami Heat-like distribution of talent would look like in the NFL.
The simplest way to look at it would be something like: 25% of the Heat's roster is superstars, so an NFL equivalent would have 11 or 12 all-pros. I realize that basketball and football are very different, but let's just go with that for now.
Let's give The South Beach Talents the following roster to start with, and declare that they must fill the rest of their roster with minimum-salary players.
Peyton Manning
Chris Johnson
Andre Johnson
Ryan Clady
Joe Thomas
Jason Witten
Jared Allen
Haloti Ngata
Patrick Willis
Jon Beason
Darelle Revis
Ed Reed
Question 1: do you consider that team analagous to the Heat?
Question 2: how would that team do?
[Again, I'd ask you to please confine your LeBron-specific rants to the comments of Neil's post or some other appropriate forum.]
This entry was posted on Monday, July 12th, 2010 at 10:43 am and is filed under General. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.
I definitely think that team would be successful, but I'm not sure if it would be a championship team. Having an offensive line of Ryan Clady, Joe Thomas, and three really bad lineman would give defenses the opportunity to get to Peyton Manning quick, and disrupt the run. Chris Johnson was better running to the sides rather then down the middle, so he should still be successful. Peyton Manning should still be able to be fairly successful. The defense would be set up to stop Johnson and Witten, so Manning would have to make the best of the replacement players, but Manning has made the receivers he has played with better, so overall the offense should be successful. Maybe not the best offense of all time by any means, but still a solid offense.
The defense would be great I think. Against the run, Beason and Willis together I'm guessing would stop the run. Against the pass, Revis would take out a teams #1 receiver, and the #2 receiver might need to be double teamed. I would guess the defense would be better then the offense, and that would be enough to get them into the playoffs, and would give them a good chance to win Super Bowls.
Their special teams would be the worst in the league, and that would hurt them.
I don't think they would have the ability to become a dynasty though. The one thing that dynasties in the past have had are depth. An injury to any one of those 12 players would hurt the team more than injuries usually do, because they will be replaced by a minimum salary player. If Manning went down, the passing game would be lost, and teams would just try stopping the run, or if Chris Johnson went down, they would just try and stop the pass. I don't think this team would be completely dominant, so one wrong bounce of a football and they could be eliminated.
And to answer if the team is analogous to the Heat... I think it's close to what would need to happen in the NFL. Because the two sports are so different, after thinking about it, it is really hard to compare. I'm thinking in basketball, it's easier to have just two minimum salary players on the court and make a strategy to make sure they aren't hurting the team on both offense and defense. With football, that is 5 players on the field who aren't good, and I think it would be easier for the other team to find ways to capitalize on all of those weaknesses. Hearing all of these players come to the same team would have the same impact with the media, but in order to have the same impact on the field I think they would still need average starters and average backups on the team instead of minimum salary players.
Special teams might not be terrible-- a lot of teams populate their special teams units with largely minimum salary guys. Not at kicker, though-- your kicker would suck, which might be an issue.
I think your secondary would be in trouble. Your secondary is only as strong as its weakest link (see the 2006-era Cowboys, who had Terence Newman, a still good Anthony Henry, Ken Hamlin, and the awful Roy Williams/Keith Davis/Pat Watkins combo platter at the other safety slot. They got lit up regularly), and the #2 CB and SS here would be very very bad. Not to mention the nickel CB. Good slot receivers would DEMOLISH this defense.
In any given game, I think this team would probably be favored to win against any normal NFL team. But over the course of a season, 3 of those 12 studs would probably get hurt, with another 2 no longer looking like studs. At that point, the team would probably be toast.
But if we can assume great health and no "down years" for the team, I think they'd be very, very good. Replacement level players in the NFL aren't all that bad, especially when surrounded by good talent. There is a long history of UFDAs succeeding in the NFL. There are a ton of wide receivers who would look good in single coverage with Johnson/Witten on the other side and Manning throwing them passes. I think it would be way too easy, assuming the UDFAs are half-decent.
If you've got a keen eye for scouting, you're going to have a great team. Even with bad scouting and bottom of the barrel UFDAs, I think the team would still be pretty good. But no depth is a killer in a 19-game season.
With ST-That's also with a terrible Punter, and Kick Returner and Punt Returner, which you could possibly put someone like Chris Johnson back there, but you will be working those players to their limits already.
By the percentages, this hypothetical team is anlagous with the Heat, but there is no way that collection of players would fit under the salary cap with 40 other minimum salary players. But it is a fun concept to explore. The concept reminds me of auction fantasy leagues where the owner buys the best two runningbacks, then fills out the roster with $1 players.
I'm conflicted on how well this team could do. On the one hand, six super-talents (on each side of the ball) can't make up for the matchup disadvantages the other five minimum salaried players bring to the table on each play. On the other, the big play ability of these players could turn nothing into a touchdown a couple times a game, right? Theoretically they could, but it would likely happen in bunches, so the offense might score four touchdowns one game but none three in a row before blowing up for six the game after that. The same issue applies to the defense. There are simply too many matchups (five) the opposing team wins. The other team doesn't need to throw at Revis because their 2nd and 3rd receivers are matchup wins against the other DBs. An OC can scheme around three dominant run defenders up the gut when the perimeter players are ripe for the pickings.
My guess would net a 6-10 to 8-8 reccord with an explosive but very inconsistent offense with a defense that starts strong but slumps more and more as the season winds down. After the season we likely wouldn't consider many of those players the best players anymore - some, but not all.
Viola! My two cents.
1. I'd focus on percentage of playing time rather than roster slots. James, Wade, and Bosh should combine for about 45% of the team's minutes, so that looks about right. But Miami isn't just filling the roster with minimum salary players - they're getting some pretty good guys like Mike Miller and Udonis Haslem.
2. This is sort of how the Colts are built. Last year the Colts had 18 guys making over $1 million (in cap value), but 5 of them barely played: Bob Sanders, Marlin Jackson, Adam Vinatieri, Anthony Gonzalez, and Jim Sorgi. Two others, Raheem Brock and Donald Brown, were backups who didn't add much value, leaving just 11 high paid core players: Manning, Wayne, Clark, Diem, Saturday, Lilja, and Addai on offense, and on defense Freeney, Mathis, Hayden, and Brackett. The rest of the roster was put together on the cheap, including guys like Garcon & Collie.
Your team would have a great offense, just as the Colts do. On defense there are some personnel issues - they don't really need both Willis and Beason, and they could use another pass rusher on the line. I'd swap in someone like Freeney for Ngata, and add another lineman in place of Beason, perhaps Kevin Williams. They would be Super Bowl favorites.
Q1: Not analogous, only because of the difference in the two sports.
Q2: 8-8, maybe 10-6, depending on injuries, coaching, and management.
Opinion: It’s not the amount of blue chip talent that makes a team succeed in the NFL. There are intangibles like desire, experience, character, and chemistry that creep into the equation. On evaluating a team’s talent alone and projecting how well it will do I contend that it’s as much about the supporting cast of red chippers that really tells the story. You can have 11-12 All Pros but unless you have a second-tier of recognized talent your team will be exploited for its weaknesses, especially on defense.
On the intangibles, I would take a team with a chip on its shoulder and strictly average talent to beat a team of a dozen All-Stars ANY DAY, because in the NFL ultimately it is not how good you are - it’s how bad you want to win. Give me a team with self-discipline and a roster full of players who execute and play the game the way they were instructed to play and I’ll show you a team that will upset the All-Stars.
I agree with Vince: your basic premise is off. If you look at dominant NBA teams (the recent Celtics or Lakers; Jordan's Bulls, the old Celtics and Lakers of Bird/Johnson or the even older Celtics and Lakers of Russell/West), their minutes are taken by no more than 7, possibly 8 guys, with the the best 3 getting the vast majority of those minutes. Its very difficult to equate this to modern football, where defenses in particular are so situation-specific. But looking at "superstars" as only 25% of the superteam's roster is too low; my guess is something like what Vince suggests, probably higher. If you assume they would put most of the superstar talent on offense, the team probably looks like the '80s Chargers: absolute dominance on offense and, despite some great individuals on defense, overall not enough talent (or depth) on the defensive side to equal a championship.
If I was a GM trying to put together a heat like team I would not sign a superstar type RB instead use replacement players at that position the same with LB if 4-3 but would spend money on a pass rusher if 3-4. With a limit of 11/12 I would spend the money at QB, LT, 2 pass rushers, 2 corners, 1 safety, 2 WR, 1 DT, 1 G, if I get a 12th add another OL. The thinking behind my selections is its more important to stop the pass than the run and with the limitation might as well have one of the better pass stopping D's than muddle up to gain little on run defense. On the Offensive side of the ball my thinking is you can find good enough RB cheap and you can find TE cheap and or scheme around them.
But, I agree that the NFL does not really lend itself to what the Heat are doing.
The problem with your argument, Patrick, is that the "All Stars" are all stars because they have self discipline, and they play the game the way they were instructed to play. Are you insinuating that Peyton Manning, Andre Johnson, Ed Reed, and Patrick Willis are undisciplined and play the wrong way?
When you say "How would that team do" , you didn't specify over a season, or in one specific game. Barring injury to one of the key OL, or a couple defensemen (injuries to CJ, AJ, Witten can be overcome bc we've seen Peyton work wonders with lesser talent for years now) , over a season that team would be great, and I would take them in one game against any NFL team you'd care to mention (assuming some of those players can be in two places at once) .
To me the move by the Heat reminds me of the 2000 Redskins, when Snyder opened up his chequebook to bring in Deion Sanders, Bruce Smith, Mark Carrier, and Jeff George.
I say that only partly tongue in cheek. The part that's not in cheek predicts a season similar to the 2000 'skins.
I question the underlying intentions and work ethics of the three players involved here, and I strongly suspect they're going to lay a collective egg.
With the 2000 Redskins, they brought in all of those players when they were old and their best days were behind them. This Heat team has players that at least they hope are still in their prime.
Even if you had to fill the rest of the team with minimum-salary players (which can be a decent amount of money if the guy is a veteran wit X number of years, btw), this is still probably the best team Manning would ever have been on, so I would have to expect 12+ wins and a real chance at a championship.
Having an elite player at every level of the defense is a pretty good way to build a defense.
*with X number of years
Of those 12 "All-Pros" (reason for quotes shortly), I'd have to definitely replace a few. Ryan Clady is very overrated. He didn't surrender a sack in 2008, but he also gave up the most pressures of any T. He improved in 09, but isn't among the top T. If we're moving a LT to RT, I'd definitely take Jared Gaither. If we use a RT (I don't think RT is neccessarily inferior to RT, it's just a different position), I'd pick Damien Woody or Sebastian Volmer (though looks to be a future LT, played both in 09 at a high level). (Though if I was looking to go soley for pass-protection for Manning, I'd go with Willie Colon).
Since Manning is the QB, and I doubt we'll care TOO much about run-blocking, I'd swap Jason Witten for Antonio Gates, easily. And personal opinion I'd just add Adrian Peterson instead of Chris Johnson (MIN had about the worst run-blocking line last season and he still was great).
On defense, Haloti Ngata is VERY overrated. He does flash high-level but it's just that, a flash. He's very inconsistant. The best DT for the past few years, no question, is Kevin Williams.
I might switch out Jared Allen (despite being a huge fan of his), depending on what style of defense you want to run. I don't mean 3-4/4-3, but do you want a "marathon" DE who plays most of the snaps, are do you prefer a guy who plays less, but has a HUGE impact when he plays (ie: Dwight Freeney). Jared's probably a top5-6 pass-rusher, but he over-shoots when stopping the run a lot. Though, he has good awareness in terms of blocking passing lanes when he knows the QB is going to get the pass off.
@Tim Wilson: Cowboys didn't sign Hamlin 'til '07. Both safeties were bad in '06.
My opinion:
The team would finish well below 500. Aside from chemistry problems (you have a 4-3 pass rushing DE teamed up with a big-body 3-4 nose tackle) both the offensive line and the secondary are no stronger than the weakest link and that's going to kill them.
The offense will move the ball somewhat but will struggle against interior pressure in the passing game and will have a lot of trouble in short yardage and inside runs. I'd be worried about having a minimum salary #2 on down in the pass game but I think can at least partially offset it.
Defensively they're going to look a lot like the Raiders. Only Allen is going to have the ability to generate pressure, so double him and then go after the non-Revis corner all day long. This ain't soccer where you have to beat all 11 guys; in football you can beat the 11th best guy over and over again.
To extend the Heat analogy, however, if all these all-pros are under contract for six years and we can assume there will be a little cap wiggle room appearing the team will be devastating two or three years down the line: the minimum salary guys become quality depth guys and suddenly the offense looks like the current Colts (Peyton Manning, strong line, great WR #1, great TE, serviceable everywhere else) with better tackles and the defense will have enough talent to still be very solid, especially in the front seven. Maybe 2009 Cowboys-ish?
Overall, the South Beach Football Talent have a lot of great pieces but not a whole team.
I hope that's what the Heat wind up looking like. I like my team sports to be TEAM sports (probably why I consider the NFL the best and the NBA to be somewhere in the sub-MLS basement); I don't like the notion that just a few guys can rule a league all on their own. I'll be disappointed if the Heat win now; OTOH, I won't mind them winning if they fill out the roster with decent players over the next few years.
As to how the LeBron Wade Bosh show will actually do, well, I have no idea.
Re: #8 and self-discipline: I've seen players named All Pro who make mental mistakes that have cost their teams some games. I've seen safeties rack up INTs but then give up too many TDs and long gainers because they get themselves out of position on Tampa-2 schemes, forsaking their teammates at the cornerback spots by trying to play centerfield and going for the INT and leaving those CBs vulnerable in one-on-one coverage.
I've also seen top flight RBs miss key blocks on blitzes because they failed to pick up the LB about to cave in on the QB.
If this South Beach Team had its 11-12 All Pros strictly manning the offensive and defensive lines and had minimum salaried personnel at all the other spots I might change my mind about its likelihood for success, because I believe most battles are won or lost in the trenches. But even so, it takes an O-line a couple years to gell as a unit and hit its stride.
Well, like an O-line, it can take time for a basketball team to gel together. However...Bron/Wade/Bosh HAVE ALREADY PLAYED TOGETHER. They were on the Olympic team in 2008, which conspiracy theorists will tell you is the whole reason they decided to get together in the first place. Even though I'm not exactly a member of the media, I'm ON RECORD saying the Heat will be 2010-2011 NBA Champions.
Peyton Manning's really, really good. This team ought to win 14 games. Probably not 16 since you'd have the Curtis Painter show in weeks 16 and 17.
I just don't see this team being a .500 team like some posters see. Over the last 10 seasons the Colts have averaged 4.6 Pro Bowl selections. This team has 12. At most they've had three defensive selections, this team has 6. They've won at least 10 games 9 of those 10 seasons. Twice they've won 14 games, with 8 and 7 Pro Bowl selections those seasons. And this team's even more stacked with the talent better distributed. It's easily the best team Manning would have ever played with in games that counted.
Doug's even managed to pick a group of players who have shown above average durability, with only Ed Reed missing significant time in the last three seasons, and all of the players except Reed are in the prime of their careers.
As for Doug's first question, I wouldn't consider this team analogous to the Heat. There's just too much of a difference to me between fielding a 5 man team, who play both sides of the ball, versus fielding two different sets of 11. And while Manning is really good, I don't think his talent eclipses the rest of the league like LeBron's does.
In response to Ch, yes that would give Manning more all-pros then he has had in the past, but everyone else around him is worse than what Manning is used to. Instead of having average/below average talent at the other positions, this is minimum salary players, whom are players that usually sit on the bench and don't get much playing time other than special teams. The above average/good teams should be able to exploit the weaknesses of 5 different players on the field and capitalize on them. Also throw in there the chances of someone getting hurt, and you don't have the kind of all star team that we'd hope for.
According to USAToday's salary database, the Colts have over 20 guys playing for the minimum salary in 2009, including guys like Pierre Garcon, Pat McAfee, and Eric Foster. They only have 16 guys making over a million (going by the way they seem to be accounting for signing bonuses). Sanders, Wayne, Freeney and Manning accounted for so much of Indy's cap space that they almost had to stuff the roster with minimum salary guys.
Sure, the other 20 guys who are making more then the minimum but less then a million won't be as good. But Doug's stars are better then Indy's current stars (mostly), and not all of those 20 guys play every down. Last year's Indy team won 14 games with Sanders only starting 4 games. Doug's team is better then last year's Indy team.
The Colts have been good at scouting over the years, so those 20 players that are making less than a million but worse than minimum I would guess are better than the average player making that much money(I don't have #'s to back that up though). On this team, of those 20 players that are worse than this team, 5 are starters on offense, 5 on defense, and the rest role players(3 WR set, 2 TE set, backup RB to give Chris Johnson a rest, dime defense, etc.). Each of them would play a very important role.
If you assume that you have good scouting and get some really good players at a minimum, than yes you would have a great team. Assuming average or below average scouting, than you might only get 1 or 2 good players out of that, and stuck with someone like Justin King as your #2 corner who would get lit up a few times a game.
Well really to compare this team to the Heat, I doubt the contracts of these players make up 90% of the NFL Salary Cap, and you could make much better decisions in terms of players on having a good base to work with.
Here's the 12 I would take:
QB: Drew Brees (younger than Manning, does more with less than Manning)
HB: Chris Johnson
WR: Andre Johnson
TE: Vernon Davis (another younger player, plays well despite poor QB play)
OL: Jake Long, Steve Hutchinson (stacking one side of the line for Chris Johnson to run hard to that side, Brees has a pretty quick release and would be seeing most of what's coming on the right side)
DLine: Dwight Freeney, Vince Wilfork, Richard Seymour (Freeney brings it off the edge, Vince pushes the middle and keeps linemen off Patrick, Seymour does it all, he rushes the passer plays the run and demands a double team)
LB: Patrick Willis (You don't need Beason with this guy, he's a tackling machine)
DB: Ed Reed, Darren Sharper (If you're gonna have weak DBs, have weak corners and play a 2 deep zone, keep everything in front of you)
The team above could definately work with so called "scrubs" around them, probably using an offense that runs to the left quite a bit more than the right with a westcoast passing attack and a base cover-2 defense that allows Willis to play sideline to sideline and has the safeties keep everything infront of them.
This is like bishops vs knights and rooks in chess. While an individual bishop is valued roughly the same as a knight, having a pair of bishops is significantly more valuable than having a pair of knights; your bishops are never wasting their effectiveness attacking the same squares while a pair of knights or a pair of rooks often overlap in their duties.
In basketball, Lebron+Wade is equivalent to a pair of knights or rooks. They've some overlap in their skill sets, so while both together may be spectacular, the addition of a second phenom should be less significant than the first. After all, only one of them will be actually shooting the ball on any given play.
Now in football, I think it's more analagous to bishops because a great safety's skillset isn't going to be overlapping with great quarterback's, etc. Of course, there are a lot more roles in football that need to be covered...
Anyway, I think any sort of cross-sport comparison will inevitably be flawed because of this.
Just for the record, a pair of rooks is significantly better than a pair of bishops, especially in the end game.
Can we use AV to answer this question? What 10 or 20 teams had the highest percentage of their AV tied up in a dozen or so players? How did those 10 or 20 teams do?
Fred: Sure, a pair of rooks is better than a pair of bishops because rooks are more powerful, but there is still a small penalty involved in having both. Lets say a rook is worth the standard 5 points. Having both rooks might be worth 9.7 instead of 10.
Regardless, the point I was making that an additive system probably works quite well in football, but I don't think it works quite so well in basketball. Or another way to say it, a great shooter + a great rebounder is better than two great shooters.
Yes, I agree with you Mattie.
I think that team would be in the top tier of the NFL depending on who their coach was and what type of scheme they would play. They would have an excellent arial attack with Peyton Manning and Andre Johnson, but they could struggle running thhe football becuase Chris Johnson has only had one quality season and he didn't show me much by way of running between the tackles. On defense they would be great with two ball hawking defensive backs but could struggle against the run in which teams would primarily use to move the ball against them. In summation I believe they could win 11 or 12 games, and get into the divisional round of the playoffs, but would hoist the lombardi trophy when it's all said and done.
Excuse me they WOULD NOT hoist the lombari trophy when it's all said and done.