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A different look at 2009 running back performance
Ronnie Brown rushed 20 times for 115 yards and 2 touchdowns against the Bills last October; that sounds like a great game, until you realize that there were five better rushing performances by individuals against Buffalo in 2009. Below are the stat lines for all running backs who had at least 10 carries against the Bills last year:
| RB | Rsh | Ryd | RTD | GRADE | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Jones | 22 | 210 | 1 | 176 | 1 |
| Pierre Thomas | 14 | 126 | 2 | 118 | 2 |
| Jamaal Charles | 20 | 143 | 1 | 113 | 3 |
| Ryan Moats | 23 | 126 | 3 | 110 | 4 |
| Chris Johnson | 26 | 132 | 2 | 100 | 5 |
| Ronnie Brown | 20 | 115 | 2 | 95 | 6 |
| Ricky Williams | 27 | 115 | 1 | 71 | 7 |
| Leon Washington | 15 | 99 | 0 | 69 | 8 |
| DeAngelo Williams | 16 | 89 | 1 | 67 | 9 |
| Thomas Jones | 23 | 109 | 0 | 63 | 10 |
| Ricky Williams | 16 | 85 | 1 | 63 | 11 |
| Jamal Lewis | 31 | 117 | 0 | 55 | 12 |
| Laurence Maroney | 23 | 81 | 1 | 45 | 13 |
| Jason Snelling | 15 | 68 | 0 | 38 | 14 |
| Reggie Bush | 13 | 64 | 0 | 38 | 15 |
| Shonn Greene | 11 | 59 | 0 | 37 | 16 |
| Jerious Norwood | 13 | 52 | 0 | 26 | 18 |
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 25 | 66 | 1 | 26 | 19 |
| Mike Hart | 10 | 28 | 1 | 18 | 21 |
| Laurence Maroney | 10 | 32 | 0 | 12 | 27 |
Most of the chart is self-explanatory; allow me to explain the Grade column, by which the table is sorted. To rank running back performance against a team, I wanted to combine rushing yards, yards per carry and rushing touchdowns into one metric. The simple, back-of-the-envelope formula I used was rushing yards over two yards per carry plus ten yards for each touchdown. So 30 carries for 100 yards would get you a grade of 40; if you scored two touchdowns, that would bump the grade up to 60. Similarly, a grade of 60 could be earned by rushing 15 times for 80 yards and one score. I'm not arguing that this is a perfect measure of running back performance, but it was relatively simple and should provide reasonable results in most cases -- i.e., Jones had the best performance against the Bills last year.
While the Bills were horrible against the run, the Bengals shut down just about every running back they faced. Adrian Peterson's 26-97-2 stat line against Cincinnati got a grade of 65, the best performance against them last season. The Bengals were the only team last year to not allow any running back to get at least 70 adjusted yards over 2.0 yards per carry.
Once we grade each running back performance, it's easy to see how they ranked against that opponent relative to all other running backs. For example, Chris Johnson had the best game among all running backs last season against four different teams: the Jaguars (24-228-2), Texans (16-197-2), Cardinals (18-154-1) and 49ers (25-135-2). The table below shows how many times each running back had the best, 2nd best, 3rd best, ... and 10th best games against a team last season. The final column is a sum of those ranks, where each RB gets 10 points for a 1st place finish, 9 points for a 2nd place finish, and so on.
| RB | G | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | sum |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Johnson | 16 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 102 |
| Adrian Peterson | 16 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 74 |
| Ray Rice | 16 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 69 |
| Steven Jackson | 15 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 68 |
| DeAngelo Williams | 13 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 66 |
| Frank Gore | 14 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 63 |
| Cedric Benson | 13 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 62 |
| Jonathan Stewart | 16 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 58 |
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 16 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 56 |
| Thomas Jones | 16 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 53 |
| Jamaal Charles | 15 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 48 |
| Ryan Grant | 16 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 45 |
| Michael Turner | 11 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 44 |
| Rashard Mendenhall | 15 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 44 |
| Ricky Williams | 16 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 42 |
| Jerome Harrison | 13 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 36 |
| Cadillac Williams | 16 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 35 |
| Fred Jackson | 16 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 33 |
| Pierre Thomas | 13 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 33 |
| Kevin Smith | 13 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 31 |
| Knowshon Moreno | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 31 |
| Justin Forsett | 15 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 30 |
| Willis McGahee | 15 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 28 |
| Chris Wells | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 28 |
| Marion Barber | 15 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 27 |
| Laurence Maroney | 15 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 27 |
| Felix Jones | 14 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 26 |
| Joseph Addai | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 25 |
| Ahmad Bradshaw | 15 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 25 |
| Matt Forte | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 23 |
| Ronnie Brown | 9 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 22 |
| LeSean McCoy | 16 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 22 |
By just about any metric you can think of, Chris Johnson was the best running back in the NFL last season. It's no surprise that he tops the above list. One guy that stands out to me is Cedric Benson, who put up one of the three biggest performances against nearly half of the teams he faced in 2009. Another is DeAngelo Williams, who had top-five games against eight teams in only 13 games last season. Some have expressed doubts about Jamaal Charles since he was putting up huge numbers against bad defenses last season. But even though Charles was pitted against some weak defenses, he was still running through them like almost no other running back did. In the last four weeks of the season, he put up the #1 game against the Broncos, the #2 rushing performance against the Browns and the third best agame against the Bengals and Bills. Michael Turner suffered a high ankle sprain in Atlanta's 9th game of the season, and his end of the year numbers were less than impressive. But in those first nine weeks, he put up one of the best four performances by any running back against five opponents; that's one of the reasons I'm high on his fantasy football prospects this season.
I'll close with a list of the top rushing performances, measured by GRADE, against each defense last season:
| Defense | RB | Rsh | Ryd | RTD | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | Chris Johnson | 18 | 154 | 1 | 128 |
| ATL | Jonathan Stewart | 11 | 82 | 2 | 80 |
| BAL | Adrian Peterson | 22 | 143 | 0 | 99 |
| BUF | Thomas Jones | 22 | 210 | 1 | 176 |
| CAR | Ricky Williams | 22 | 119 | 2 | 95 |
| CHI | Cedric Benson | 37 | 189 | 1 | 125 |
| CIN | Adrian Peterson | 26 | 97 | 2 | 65 |
| CLE | Adrian Peterson | 25 | 180 | 3 | 160 |
| DAL | Cadillac Williams | 13 | 97 | 1 | 81 |
| DEN | Jamaal Charles | 25 | 259 | 2 | 229 |
| DET | Ray Rice | 13 | 166 | 1 | 150 |
| GNB | Cedric Benson | 29 | 141 | 0 | 83 |
| HOU | Chris Johnson | 16 | 197 | 2 | 185 |
| IND | Fred Jackson | 33 | 212 | 0 | 146 |
| JAX | Chris Johnson | 24 | 228 | 2 | 200 |
| KAN | Jerome Harrison | 34 | 286 | 3 | 248 |
| MIA | DeAngelo Williams | 13 | 122 | 0 | 96 |
| MIN | Ray Rice | 10 | 77 | 2 | 77 |
| NOR | DeAngelo Williams | 21 | 149 | 2 | 127 |
| NWE | Arian Foster | 20 | 119 | 2 | 99 |
| NYG | Jonathan Stewart | 28 | 206 | 1 | 160 |
| NYJ | Maurice Jones-Drew | 24 | 123 | 1 | 85 |
| OAK | Willis McGahee | 16 | 167 | 3 | 165 |
| PHI | Frank Gore | 16 | 107 | 0 | 75 |
| PIT | Ray Rice | 30 | 141 | 0 | 81 |
| SDG | Rashard Mendenhall | 29 | 165 | 2 | 127 |
| SEA | Frank Gore | 16 | 207 | 2 | 195 |
| SFO | Chris Johnson | 25 | 135 | 2 | 105 |
| STL | Justin Forsett | 22 | 130 | 2 | 106 |
| TAM | DeAngelo Williams | 30 | 152 | 2 | 112 |
| TEN | Maurice Jones-Drew | 8 | 177 | 2 | 181 |
| WAS | Michael Turner | 18 | 166 | 2 | 150 |
This entry was posted on Friday, August 20th, 2010 at 7:56 am and is filed under Running Backs, Statgeekery. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.

Nice stuff, I'm glad you've started adjusting RB's for opponent too. I'm guessing the same method could be used for past seasons, although it may need to be adjusted for # of teams in the league/# of games played in the season. I'd be interested to see what this method gives for the best seasons ever.
Nicely done. Would it be possible to use a similar framework to construct an adjusted grade for each player? In other words: if we assume replacement level is 2 yards per carry (basically what you're doing) and then adjust for each defense's average given up (say, Bills give up 4.7 YPA and the Jets 3.8, so Bills would be at 2.5 YPA replacement level and Jets 1.6 YPA), could you then compile the total touchdown and opponent-adjusted yards above replacement for each player over the year?
I ran a really rough VORP for running backs, setting AYPA (10 yards per touchdown) replacement level at 4.0 (roughly estimated--players with about 10 carries in a season as running backs averaged around this level). Last season's leaders (NOT ADJUSTING FOR OPPONENT):
Player VORPChris Johnson 714.0
Jamaal Charles 430.0
Ray Rice 393.0
Jonathan Stewart 349.0
DeAngelo Williams 323.0
Adrian Peterson 307.0
Frank Gore 304.0
Maurice Jones-Drew 293.0
Ricky Williams 267.0
Pierre Thomas 265.0
Michael Turner 259.0
Felix Jones 251.0
Ryan Grant 235.0
Willis McGahee 228.0
Thomas Jones 218.0
Rashard Mendenhall 210.0
Justin Forsett 203.0
Ahmad Bradshaw 196.0
Correll Buckhalter 172.0
Steven Jackson 160.0
And the bottom 10:
Mike Goodson -39.0LaDainian Tomlinson -42.0
Darren McFadden -49.0
Jerious Norwood -52.0
Edgerrin James -59.0
Matt Forte -63.0
Jamal Lewis -72.0
Kevin Smith -81.0
Glen Coffee -96.0
Larry Johnson -131.0
This is interesting. I assume the idea is to come up with a quick way to create an opponent-adjusted RB rating. But instead of ranking each individual RB against each other, shouldn't they maybe be ranked against other team performances? For instance, Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams actually hold the 6th and 11th best performances against the Bills. But they did that in the same game. So really the Bills gave up 158 GRADE points in that game to Miami (maybe more if we add in other backs), which would put Miami at the #2 spot against the Bills. So you're chart says Pierre Thomas had the 2nd-best performance. But it was probably no better than 3rd best, because the Buffalo defense is a little bit softer than your rating.
Just a thought, but I realize if you compared individuals to team totals, then it's unlikely that any RB would be able to achieve a #1 ranking in any of his games, unless the rest of his team combined for 2ypc or less.
One interesting thing I noticed at a quick glance is that a few of the best games came late in the year when teams were resting players. The best games against the Colts and Patriots, for example, were in the last week of the season when they rested starters. Several more came in the last two weeks of the season, although against teams that didn't make the playoffs, so I'm not sure if they pulled starters as well (Although, for Jonathan Stewart against the Giants, they were so banged up he was basically playing back ups anyway.).
One note about Pierre Thomas and his game against the Bills (rated #2, first table). IIRC, that was JUST IN THE 2ND HALF!!!