How Unique is 11-10?
Posted by Sean on Tuesday, November 18, 2008
Much has been made of the fact that the Steelers-Chargers game last Sunday was the first 11-10 game ever. Let's call this a singular game as there has been but one. Just how unique is a singular game? It turns out, not very.
In order to answer this question, I whipped up a few new tools in the PFR Box Scores area. We now have a tool that summarizes every game score in pro football history (including playoff games), one that will show you every 20-3 game in NFL history (with links to the box scores when possible of course) and even one that shows you all of the scores that haven't occurred (up to a 50-50 tie).
Sunday's game was the first 11-10 score in pro football history, but this year, we've also seen the first: 48-25, 48-29, 56-35, 40-26, 48-41, 37-32, and 47-3 games.
Given that there are 263 singular games in pro football history out of 978 scoring combinations ever achieved (and about 13,500 games total, including the playoffs), this isn't all that rare of an event. One in thirteen games was singular at the time it was played and one in fifty still is singular. Given those numbers and that the NFL plays 256 regular season games (plus the playoffs), one should expect around five such games a year for the foreseeable future especially as teams score more points and have the option of two-point conversions as well.
Which scores happen most often?
Score Times 20-17 218 17-14 177 27-24 156 13-10 144 24-17 126 ........ 0-0 71
While football fans in Europe might be used to 0-0 ties, American football fans haven't seen one since Nov. 7, 1943 (the 71st ever).
Are we in danger of running out of singular games? Not any time soon, there are still lots of scores left to happen. If we count up to a 50-50 tie game, there are 402 combinations (out of 1,275 possible) we haven't yet seen. Of course, some of those scores are ridiculously unlikely to occur. For example, only once has a team scored four points in a game (the Racine Legion beat the Chicago Cardinals 10-4 on Nov. 25, 1923). If I was a betting man, I might bet that the next singular game would be a 49-42 game. That is the only all touchdown game (under 50-50) that hasn't occurred. Other possibilities: 8-7, 9-8, 9-9, or 17-2.
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Jets and Chargers each involved in three of the singular games of 2008
Posted on 18-Nov-08 at 8:33 pm | PermalinkFunny that I heard multiple times that this was the first 11-10 game, but never heard anything at all about the other 7 singular games this year.
Posted on 19-Nov-08 at 2:16 pm | PermalinkGoing into this season, there were only two 18-15 games ever. Now, there are four, and both of them this year were won by the Colts.
Posted on 19-Nov-08 at 3:07 pm | PermalinkThis is why I love this site. As #2 noted, we heard nothing about all the other unique games this year. 11-10 get noticed because it "looks" unusual, while 37-32 "seems" more normal. It just shows how lazy the sports media are, and I'm happy that some blogs can show how easy it is not to be lazy.
Posted on 19-Nov-08 at 9:55 pm | PermalinkLance,
We only make it look easy.
Posted on 19-Nov-08 at 10:00 pm | PermalinkI think that 38-26 is long overdue. Same goes for 42-16.
I just did some quick Excel work using your lists of actual scores and scores that have not happened, determining what the most commonly occurring individual team scores are that have never been paired in the same game. (Not including ties.) Here’s what I’m talking about: 463 times a team has ended up with a score of 38, and 409 times a team has ended up with a score of 26, but this has never occurred for two teams in the same game. Thus, this score would seem to be a very likely candidate to come about at some point. By multiplying the number of occurrences of one score by the other, you can get a rough estimate of the relative likelihood of these scores coming about.
Granted, I am making the admittedly erroneous assumption that teams scores are independent from their opponent's, which is exactly why I took out the ties. But I don’t think that score independence in football games is that terrible of an assumption, and I would bet that at least one of these scores goes down within the next season or two. I also took out a few scores that obviously relied on safeties being scored, since the safety has become a lot more rare since the 20’s and 30’s.
Here is my top 15 “most due scores”:
38-26 (463 occurrences, 409 occurrences respectively)
Posted on 19-Nov-08 at 11:06 pm | Permalink42-16 (211, 787)
37 - 19 (306, 453)
45-30 (190, 551)
40-31 (97, 938)
35-29 (453, 179)
42-9 (211, 359)
36-23 (87, 852)
36-16 (87, 787)
45-9 (190, 359)
43-20 (43, 1549)
41-12 (268, 248)
47-20 (40, 1549)
8-7 (36, 1673)
49-23 (69, 852)
Good stuff, David!
Posted on 20-Nov-08 at 5:52 am | PermalinkImagine if all the scores that David mentions wind up happening in the same week
Posted on 20-Nov-08 at 9:09 am | PermalinkGood stuff. I understand the frustration of not making a big deal about other singular games scores but I think some are too quick to discount the reason why the 11-10 "got noticed." Sean did a good job of producing four other "low" game scores that have not occurred (8-7, 9-8, 9-9, or 17-2). However, the vast majority of games scores that have not occurred are "high" scores that individual teams may reach a couple times a year at most. The main reason why it's so unique that "11-10" had never happened is because the vast majority of NFL games produce scores at least that high. The same cannot be said for a "49-42" game (or 14 of the 15 "most due scores" on David H's list). That's why "11-10" is so unique and that's why "8-7" would be equally unique. Also, while there have been other game scores that have not occurred, the answer to the question, "How Unique is 11-10?" is 1 in 12,837. Take care!
Posted on 20-Nov-08 at 11:12 am | PermalinkIf so, I hope it's my team on the good end of 45-9
Posted on 20-Nov-08 at 4:07 pm | PermalinkI'll take Bills 8-7 over the Chiefs
Posted on 20-Nov-08 at 4:18 pm | PermalinkI remember Cowboys beating the Lions 5-0 in the 1970 playoffs.
Posted on 20-Nov-08 at 10:21 pm | PermalinkEvery year coaches seem more willing to go for 2. All those 8s should keep filling in the table. 8-7 in the snow seems like a gimme.
Posted on 21-Nov-08 at 12:48 pm | PermalinkWoo, first 54 - 31 game ever! It's so unique!
Also, woo Bears, even though it was the Rams.
Posted on 23-Nov-08 at 3:27 pm | PermalinkI wanted 60+, but I'm happy with the 54-31 win
I just mailed Gunther Cunningham a post card... I wrote:
-----
Dear Gunther C.,
WOW! 54 points! What a score!
Thanks for all the points.
Your boys made it look almost effortless!
Respectfully, Bill M.
P.S. Ha! Ha! Ha!
-----
No joke, I really sent it.
Posted on 24-Nov-08 at 3:03 pm | PermalinkLooks like Monday night's 51-29 result was unique as well.
Posted on 24-Nov-08 at 11:03 pm | PermalinkAaaand the monday night game makes 2 singular games in one week! Plus 2 scores that occurred for the second time ever, 2 more for the 3rd time and one more for the fourth time, all in the same week.
Posted on 24-Nov-08 at 11:35 pm | PermalinkThe unusual one that is a first timer for me is the 56-35 score, since it is the only one that can be attained by only touchdowns and one point extras...
Posted on 26-Nov-08 at 12:10 am | PermalinkI can't wait to see an epic final score like 66-63 or 59-56, or a score like that crazy D-III college game a week ago that was 93-68.
Posted on 26-Nov-08 at 2:54 pm | PermalinkThe Buffalo & Kansas game last week of 54-31 is also unigue according this site as well
Posted on 27-Nov-08 at 6:40 pm | Permalink"If I was a betting man, I might bet that the next singular game would be a 49-42 game. That is the only all touchdown game (under 50-50) that hasn’t occurred."
So.....where is the 49-49 game? It isn't listed on the chart, and would also likely be an all-touchdown game.
Posted on 28-Nov-08 at 2:35 pm | PermalinkConcerning the 10-4 game in 1923, does anyone know how the 4 points were scored? I assumed it was two safeties, but I saw a list of "most safeties scored in a game" and that game wasn't listed (not sure where I found the list). The record is three safeties, by the way. There are 17 games listed with two safeties. The first record on the list is from 1927, so maybe the list doesn't go back before that time. I wondered if there were other ways to score 4 points back in 1923.
Posted on 30-Nov-08 at 1:51 pm | PermalinkI saw an NFL fact that said FG's used to be 4 and TD's were 5.
Posted on 01-Dec-08 at 8:41 pm | PermalinkErik, there are many ways a team can achieve the score of 56 without only making touchdowns with extra points. Just consider the fact 4 field goals and a safety is 14.
Posted on 03-Jan-09 at 6:53 pm | PermalinkI was at the (first) 61-7 game; the only NFL game I have ever attended.
Then there was the 21-6 Cowboys-Packers Monday night game in 1996. The Pack scored the game's only touchdown. In the Min-Ram game from November of 1989, LA scored 3 touchdowns, MN none. MN won on a safety in overtime.
The one column I would like to see added to the chart is the first time that the score occured.
Posted on 08-Jan-09 at 12:05 pm | PermalinkIt strikes me that 9-8 will fall rather soon. Given the re-institution of the 2 pt. conversion in the NFL, a 3 FG, one TD +2 seems to be pretty likely. (More likely at least than 2 FG and a safety to account for those 8 points.)
What makes 11-10 unique, in my eyes, is that it is a seemingly mundane score that had never occurred.
I'm waiting for a 6-1 game. (It's a weird, super-unlikely quirk of the rules that is actually possible but would take paragraphs to explain properly, check it out.)
Posted on 11-Jan-09 at 2:26 pm | PermalinkLooks like we had another "singular game" today.
Eagles 23, Giants 11
Posted on 11-Jan-09 at 5:30 pm | PermalinkLooks like David H's wish of a 38-26 game occured with the vikings/packers game today.
Nice list on the site and nice analysis David
Posted on 01-Nov-09 at 9:29 pm | PermalinkDavid H wrote :
Here is my top 15 “most due scores”:
38-26 (463 occurrences, 409 occurrences respectively)
42-16 (211, 787)
37 - 19 (306, 453)
45-30 (190, 551)
40-31 (97, 938)
35-29 (453, 179)
42-9 (211, 359)
36-23 (87, 852)
36-16 (87, 787)
45-9 (190, 359)
43-20 (43, 1549)
41-12 (268, 248)
47-20 (40, 1549)
8-7 (36, 1673)
49-23 (69, 852)
Looking at this statistically, these occurances need to be looked at as a percentage chance of happening. The 463 times "38" has occured was in 13,500 games or out of 27,000 possible scores - that's 1.7% chance. "26" occurs about 1.5% of the time. For both to occur at the same time would be 1.5% x 1.7% or 0.0002% of the time. Out of 13,000 games it had a 27% chance of occuring. It should happen only once every 48,000 games or so...
Posted on 04-Nov-09 at 10:55 pm | Permalink