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PI Finds: Pats-Colts, By The Numbers

Posted by Neil Paine on November 18, 2010

In honor of this Sunday's battle between two of the NFL's fiercest rivals, let's use the PFR Team Game Finder to take a look at the New England Patriots and Indianapolis Colts' head-to-head stats during the Brady-vs-Manning era (2001-09, including the playoffs -- but excluding '08, when Brady was injured and missed the game).

First, the overall game results:

Team Games Wins Losses Ties WPct PF PA PtDiff
Patriots 11 7 4 0 0.636 324 265 59
Colts 11 4 7 0 0.364 265 324 -59

And the results just in Foxboro, the location of Sunday's game:

Team Games Wins Losses Ties WPct PF PA PtDiff
Patriots 6 4 2 0 0.667 156 121 35
Colts 6 2 4 0 0.333 121 156 -35

Here are the head-to-head passing numbers:

Overall At Foxboro
Team Cmp Att Yds TD Int Sk SkYds ANY/A Cmp Att Yds TD Int Sk SkYds ANY/A
Patriots 238 364 2601 21 12 15 129 6.55 124 200 1286 8 6 8 84 5.65
Colts 261 434 2977 20 16 25 168 5.79 139 234 1544 9 11 12 87 5.00

And the rushing numbers:

Overall At Foxboro
Team Att Yds Y/A TD Att Yds Y/A TD
Patriots 307 1253 4.08 11 174 763 4.39 6
Colts 311 1225 3.94 10 169 613 3.63 6

Here's the scoring breakdown by quarter:

Overall At Foxboro
Team Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Patriots 55 124 60 85 24 51 40 41
Colts 30 77 71 87 14 44 31 32

And just for fun, here are the 2010 Simple Rating System numbers (adjusted for home field advantage) prior to Thursday night's game:

Rk Team Gm Offense Defense Total Rk Team Gm Offense Defense Total
1 gnb 9 2.69 -6.41 9.10 17 kan 9 -0.03 -0.69 0.65
2 nyj 9 1.90 -6.83 8.73 18 chi 9 -3.77 -4.30 0.52
3 oti 9 3.88 -4.15 8.03 19 min 9 -2.50 -1.63 -0.86
4 nwe 9 8.93 1.43 7.50 20 cin 9 -0.14 1.28 -1.42
5 pit 9 1.66 -5.51 7.17 21 was 9 -1.56 1.96 -3.52
6 phi 9 7.32 0.50 6.82 22 htx 9 1.34 5.66 -4.32
7 rav 9 0.62 -5.34 5.96 23 den 9 1.67 6.48 -4.80
8 atl 9 2.53 -2.37 4.90 24 ram 9 -6.70 -1.75 -4.95
9 clt 9 1.89 -2.86 4.74 25 dal 9 0.02 5.36 -5.35
10 sdg 9 3.04 -0.29 3.33 26 buf 9 -1.72 3.97 -5.68
11 det 9 3.46 0.40 3.07 27 sfo 9 -4.77 0.93 -5.70
12 nyg 9 2.86 0.53 2.33 28 tam 9 -1.63 4.11 -5.73
13 mia 9 -0.29 -2.58 2.29 29 jax 9 -1.99 3.87 -5.86
14 rai 9 2.16 -0.03 2.19 30 sea 9 -5.59 1.03 -6.62
15 cle 9 -1.35 -3.20 1.85 31 crd 9 -2.33 8.46 -10.80
16 nor 9 -0.82 -1.87 1.05 32 car 9 -10.78 3.85 -14.63

Lg. Constant = 22.09 ... HFA = 2.12

To make a prediction in any game, use the following formulae:

Home Pts = Lg Constant + .5*HFA + Home Offense Rating + Away Defense Rating

Road Pts = Lg Constant - .5*HFA + Away Offense Rating + Home Defense Rating

Plugging in the Pats' and Colts' numbers, the SRS predicts a 29-24 New England win (as a comparison/sanity check, Vegas predicts a 27-24 Pats victory).

This entry was posted on Thursday, November 18th, 2010 at 2:37 pm and is filed under PI Finds, Play Index, Site Features. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.