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ShareThisPI Finds: Pats-Colts, By The Numbers
In honor of this Sunday's battle between two of the NFL's fiercest rivals, let's use the PFR Team Game Finder to take a look at the New England Patriots and Indianapolis Colts' head-to-head stats during the Brady-vs-Manning era (2001-09, including the playoffs -- but excluding '08, when Brady was injured and missed the game).
First, the overall game results:
| Team | Games | Wins | Losses | Ties | WPct | PF | PA | PtDiff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patriots | 11 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 0.636 | 324 | 265 | 59 |
| Colts | 11 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 0.364 | 265 | 324 | -59 |
And the results just in Foxboro, the location of Sunday's game:
| Team | Games | Wins | Losses | Ties | WPct | PF | PA | PtDiff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patriots | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0.667 | 156 | 121 | 35 |
| Colts | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0.333 | 121 | 156 | -35 |
Here are the head-to-head passing numbers:
| Overall | At Foxboro | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Cmp | Att | Yds | TD | Int | Sk | SkYds | ANY/A | Cmp | Att | Yds | TD | Int | Sk | SkYds | ANY/A |
| Patriots | 238 | 364 | 2601 | 21 | 12 | 15 | 129 | 6.55 | 124 | 200 | 1286 | 8 | 6 | 8 | 84 | 5.65 |
| Colts | 261 | 434 | 2977 | 20 | 16 | 25 | 168 | 5.79 | 139 | 234 | 1544 | 9 | 11 | 12 | 87 | 5.00 |
And the rushing numbers:
| Overall | At Foxboro | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Att | Yds | Y/A | TD | Att | Yds | Y/A | TD |
| Patriots | 307 | 1253 | 4.08 | 11 | 174 | 763 | 4.39 | 6 |
| Colts | 311 | 1225 | 3.94 | 10 | 169 | 613 | 3.63 | 6 |
Here's the scoring breakdown by quarter:
| Overall | At Foxboro | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 |
| Patriots | 55 | 124 | 60 | 85 | 24 | 51 | 40 | 41 |
| Colts | 30 | 77 | 71 | 87 | 14 | 44 | 31 | 32 |
And just for fun, here are the 2010 Simple Rating System numbers (adjusted for home field advantage) prior to Thursday night's game:
| Rk | Team | Gm | Offense | Defense | Total | Rk | Team | Gm | Offense | Defense | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | gnb | 9 | 2.69 | -6.41 | 9.10 | 17 | kan | 9 | -0.03 | -0.69 | 0.65 | |
| 2 | nyj | 9 | 1.90 | -6.83 | 8.73 | 18 | chi | 9 | -3.77 | -4.30 | 0.52 | |
| 3 | oti | 9 | 3.88 | -4.15 | 8.03 | 19 | min | 9 | -2.50 | -1.63 | -0.86 | |
| 4 | nwe | 9 | 8.93 | 1.43 | 7.50 | 20 | cin | 9 | -0.14 | 1.28 | -1.42 | |
| 5 | pit | 9 | 1.66 | -5.51 | 7.17 | 21 | was | 9 | -1.56 | 1.96 | -3.52 | |
| 6 | phi | 9 | 7.32 | 0.50 | 6.82 | 22 | htx | 9 | 1.34 | 5.66 | -4.32 | |
| 7 | rav | 9 | 0.62 | -5.34 | 5.96 | 23 | den | 9 | 1.67 | 6.48 | -4.80 | |
| 8 | atl | 9 | 2.53 | -2.37 | 4.90 | 24 | ram | 9 | -6.70 | -1.75 | -4.95 | |
| 9 | clt | 9 | 1.89 | -2.86 | 4.74 | 25 | dal | 9 | 0.02 | 5.36 | -5.35 | |
| 10 | sdg | 9 | 3.04 | -0.29 | 3.33 | 26 | buf | 9 | -1.72 | 3.97 | -5.68 | |
| 11 | det | 9 | 3.46 | 0.40 | 3.07 | 27 | sfo | 9 | -4.77 | 0.93 | -5.70 | |
| 12 | nyg | 9 | 2.86 | 0.53 | 2.33 | 28 | tam | 9 | -1.63 | 4.11 | -5.73 | |
| 13 | mia | 9 | -0.29 | -2.58 | 2.29 | 29 | jax | 9 | -1.99 | 3.87 | -5.86 | |
| 14 | rai | 9 | 2.16 | -0.03 | 2.19 | 30 | sea | 9 | -5.59 | 1.03 | -6.62 | |
| 15 | cle | 9 | -1.35 | -3.20 | 1.85 | 31 | crd | 9 | -2.33 | 8.46 | -10.80 | |
| 16 | nor | 9 | -0.82 | -1.87 | 1.05 | 32 | car | 9 | -10.78 | 3.85 | -14.63 |
Lg. Constant = 22.09 ... HFA = 2.12
To make a prediction in any game, use the following formulae:
Home Pts = Lg Constant + .5*HFA + Home Offense Rating + Away Defense Rating
Road Pts = Lg Constant - .5*HFA + Away Offense Rating + Home Defense Rating
Plugging in the Pats' and Colts' numbers, the SRS predicts a 29-24 New England win (as a comparison/sanity check, Vegas predicts a 27-24 Pats victory).
This entry was posted on Thursday, November 18th, 2010 at 2:37 pm and is filed under PI Finds, Play Index, Site Features. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.
i'm trying to do the calculations to see how SRS predicts a 29-24 score but i can't using the data and formulae provided. specifically i don't see where you got the numbers for Home Offense Rating + Away Defense Rating.
can you walk me thru it?
otherwise very informative website!
thanks
dave
the 2010 Simple Rating System numbers (adjusted for home field advantage) prior to Thursday night's game:
Rk Team Gm Offense Defense Total Rk Team Gm Offense Defense Total
1 gnb 9 2.69 -6.41 9.10 17 kan 9 -0.03 -0.69 0.65
2 nyj 9 1.90 -6.83 8.73 18 chi 9 -3.77 -4.30 0.52
3 oti 9 3.88 -4.15 8.03 19 min 9 -2.50 -1.63 -0.86
4 nwe 9 8.93 1.43 7.50 20 cin 9 -0.14 1.28 -1.42
5 pit 9 1.66 -5.51 7.17 21 was 9 -1.56 1.96 -3.52
6 phi 9 7.32 0.50 6.82 22 htx 9 1.34 5.66 -4.32
7 rav 9 0.62 -5.34 5.96 23 den 9 1.67 6.48 -4.80
8 atl 9 2.53 -2.37 4.90 24 ram 9 -6.70 -1.75 -4.95
9 clt 9 1.89 -2.86 4.74 25 dal 9 0.02 5.36 -5.35
10 sdg 9 3.04 -0.29 3.33 26 buf 9 -1.72 3.97 -5.68
11 det 9 3.46 0.40 3.07 27 sfo 9 -4.77 0.93 -5.70
12 nyg 9 2.86 0.53 2.33 28 tam 9 -1.63 4.11 -5.73
13 mia 9 -0.29 -2.58 2.29 29 jax 9 -1.99 3.87 -5.86
14 rai 9 2.16 -0.03 2.19 30 sea 9 -5.59 1.03 -6.62
15 cle 9 -1.35 -3.20 1.85 31 crd 9 -2.33 8.46 -10.80
16 nor 9 -0.82 -1.87 1.05 32 car 9 -10.78 3.85 -14.63
Lg. Constant = 22.09 ... HFA = 2.12
To make a prediction in any game, use the following formulae:
Home Pts = Lg Constant + .5*HFA + Home Offense Rating + Away Defense Rating
Road Pts = Lg Constant - .5*HFA + Away Offense Rating + Home Defense Rating
I'm assuming the offense/defense is based on points scored/allowed. In terms of calculations, each game is turned into two... A-Offense vs B-Defense and B-Offense vs A-Defense. HFA is probably split between the two virtual games. At that point, you'd end up with offenses with scores like +15 to +25 and defenses with scores like -15 to -25. So then they're shifted so that 0 is average again. Or you could bundle the shift towards zero earlier in the calculation by subtracting the average, should come out exactly the same...
So offense is then how much you expect that team to score more/less than an average team (positive is good) and defense is how much you expect them to allow more/less than average (negative is good).
...At least, that's how I've done it in the past.
Hmm, actually probably better to subtract the average rather than adjusting after the fact; otherwise, the unequal number of games midseason could produce slightly different results. I'm not suggesting the PFR folks did it wrong, this is just in reference to my previous post where I was explaining how they could be calculated.
Yep, Mattie has it right. Each team has 2 variables, an offensive rating and a defensive rating. So you basically set up 2 equations for each game -- one predicting the home team's points scored from the league's PPG, the league's HFA, home's offensive rating & road's defensive rating, and the other predicting the home team's points allowed from the league's PPG, the league's HFA, road's offensive rating and home's defensive rating. Solve for the set of variables that minimizes the squared prediction errors, and those are your ratings, denominated in points per game above/below average.
ok so solving for the pats:
Home Pts = Lg Constant + .5*HFA + Home Offense Rating + Away Defense Rating
22.09 + .5(2.12) + 8.93 + (-2.86) = 29.22, which is close enough to 29 and what was calculated by Neil in the article.
solving for the colts:
Road Pts = Lg Constant - .5*HFA + Away Offense Rating + Home Defense Rating
22.09 - .5(2.12) + 1.89 + 1.43 = 24.35 which is close to Neil's 24.
got it. thanks!
Once again, Vegas shows us that there's at least one industry left that knows what it's doing.