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Matt Ryan, rookie extraordinaire

Posted by Chase Stuart on December 9, 2008

It seems just about everyone has noticed the great seasons that Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco are having.

Best Rookie QB Ever?
Ryan Playing Like No Rookie
Ryan vs. Flacco
Legendary 2008
Learning Curve

With a vast database and a good way to rank the quarterbacks, I think we can answer the question of where Matt Ryan stands in NFL history. Remember, this past summer I ranked every season by every quarterback in NFL history. Using that same methodology, we can compare Ryan (and Flacco) to all rookies that have come before them.

Here's a quick refresher. I start with a quarterback's adjusted net yards per attempt ratio. That formula is calculated by looking at a QB's number of passing yards, adding 10 points for all touchdown passes, subtracting 45 yards for all interceptions, subtracting one yard for every sack yard lost, and then dividing that number by the QB's total number of sacks plus pass attempts. Regular PFR readers know that I recently decided to up the TD bonus to 20 yards per score, but updating the old QB list with that new metric is a job best saved for the off-season. We'll stick with 10 yards for all TD passes for now.

After figuring out the ANY/A metric for each QB, you have to compare that number to the ANY/A number for all other quarterbacks in the NFL. Then to figure out "QB value added", you take the difference between the QB's ratio and the league average ratio, and multiply it by the number of pass attempts (including sacks) the QB had. Quarterbacks also additional bonus yards for all rushing yards over 4.0 yards per carry. If that sounds a bit complicated, let's use Dan Marino's 1983 season as an example.

Marino had 2,210 passing yards, 20 TDs (200 adjusted yards), 6 INTs (-270 adjusted yards) and only 80 sack yards lost (-80 adjusted yards) on 296 passes and 10 sacks (306 total attempts). That means Marino averaged 6.73 adjusted net yards per pass, which is very good now and was even better in 1983. Outside of Marino, NFL QBs in 1983 averaged 4.53 ANY/A, meaning Marino averaged a full 2.20 more adjusted yards per passing play. Multiplied by his 306 passing plays, and Marino gets credit for being 674 yards above average in 1983.

How does that rank all time? Here's a list of all rookie QBs that added over 250 adjusted yards over average as rookies (note: for years where the NFL season was fewer than 16 games, every QB's value was prorated as if they played a season length between what they actually did and 16 games; so Charlie Conerly's season was pro-rated to a 14 game season). Because of the somewhat nebulous nature of how to define a rookie, I'm going to be overinclusive by counting the first season in which a player recorded a stat as his rookie year; however, for guys whose rookie seasons were not their draft year or if the player spent time in another professional football league first, I put two asterisks by their name.

Score				        year    att	pyd	ptd	pint	any/a
674	Dan Marino	        mia	1983	296	2210	20	 6	 6.73
581	Greg Cook	        cin	1969	197	1854	15	11	 5.81
513	Charlie Conerly**	nyg	1948	299	2175	22	13	 6.05
476	Marc Bulger**	        ram	2002	214	1826	14	 6	 7.05
392	Sid Luckman	        chi	1939	 51	 636	 5	 4	 9.92
392	Johnny Unitas**	        clt	1956	198	1498	 9	10	 5.75
392	Ben Roethlisberger	pit	2004	295	2621	17	11	 6.41
384	Norm Van Brocklin	ram	1949	 58	 601	 6	 2	 9.84
367	Jim Kelly**	        buf	1986	480	3593	22	17	 5.20
343	Billy Wade**	        ram	1954	 59	 509	 2	 1	 8.20
323	Pat Haden**	        ram	1976	105	 896	 8	 4	 6.02
320	Johnny Lujack**	        chi	1948	 66	 611	 6	 3	 8.12
319	Joe Namath	        nyj	1965	340	2220	18	15	 5.07
312	Butch Songin**	        nwe	1960	392	2476	22	15	 5.16
298	Jacky Lee	        oti	1960	 77	 842	 5	 6	 8.08
296	Ed Rubbert	        was	1987	 49	 532	 4	 1	10.36
287	Bob Celeri**	        nyy	1951	238	1797	12	15	 5.22
286	Tom Flores**	        rai	1960	252	1738	12	12	 5.23
262	Dick Jamieson**	        nyj	1960	 70	 586	 6	 2	 7.94
256	Aaron Brooks**	        nor	2000	194	1514	 9	 6	 5.93
254	Jeff Garcia**	        sfo	1999	375	2544	11	11	 5.27

Obviously it's not easy to compare Sid Luckman's 1939 season to Ed Rubbert's 1987 season to Jim Kelly's 1986 year. The above list doesn't give enough credit to the guys who played the most (a good indicator that the rookie was playing well), so we should drop the baseline to three-quarters of league average, instead of league average. Here's what I think is the best list for measuring the greatest rookie QB seasons of all time:

Score				        year    att	pyd	ptd	pint	any/a
1020	Dan Marino	        mia	1983	296	2210	20	 6	6.7
 964	Jim Kelly**	        buf	1986	480	3593	22	17	5.2
 916	Charlie Conerly**	nyg	1948	299	2175	22	13	6.1
 814	Ben Roethlisberger	pit	2004	295	2621	17	11	6.4
 801	Greg Cook	        cin	1969	197	1854	15	11	5.8
 777	Butch Songin**	        nwe	1960	392	2476	22	15	5.2
 756	Marc Bulger**	        ram	2002	214	1826	14	 6	7.1
 743	Warren Moon**	        oti	1984	450	3338	12	14	4.9
 722	Jeff Garcia**	        sfo	1999	375	2544	11	11	5.3
 699	Joe Namath	        nyj	1965	340	2220	18	15	5.1
 634	Johnny Unitas**	        clt	1956	198	1498	 9	10	5.7
 620	Charlie Batch	        det	1998	303	2178	11	 6	5.3
 595	Byron Leftwich	        jax	2003	418	2819	14	16	4.9
 586	Tom Flores**	        rai	1960	252	1738	12	12	5.2
 570	Bob Celeri**	        nyy	1951	238	1797	12	15	5.2
 509	Aaron Brooks**	        nor	2000	194	1514	 9	 6	5.9
 482	Dieter Brock**	        ram	1985	365	2658	16	13	4.5
 472	Fran Tarkenton	        min	1961	280	1997	18	17	5.0
 460	Matt Leinart	        crd	2006	377	2547	11	12	4.9
 457	Paul Governali**	byk	1946	192	1293	13	10	5.1
 452	Vince Young	        oti	2006	357	2199	12	13	4.2
 451	Norm Van Brocklin	ram	1949	 58	 601	 6	 2	9.8
 444	Sid Luckman	        chi	1939	 51	 636	 5	 4	9.9
 441	Mark Rypien**	        was	1988	208	1730	18	13	5.5
 438	M.C. Reynolds	        crd	1958	195	1422	11	11	5.3

That list is a pretty solid ordering of the best rookie seasons ever. Conventional wisdom puts Marino and Roethlisberger at the top, along with Greg Cook if the author has heard of him. Depending on whether you want to count Kelly as a rookie in 1986 -- he previously had played two excellent seasons in the USFL -- he is at the top of the list, as well.

So where do Ryan and Flacco rank? Through 13 games, Ryan has 2940 passing yards, 14 TD (140 adjusted yards), 7 INT (-315 adjusted yards), and 80 sack yards lost (-80 adjusted yards) on 366 pass attempts and 13 sacks. That's an average of 7.08 adjusted net yards per pass attempt.

Flacco has 2410 passing yards, 13 TD (130), 10 INT (-450), and 208 sack yards lost (-208) on 352 pass attempts and 23 sacks. That's an average of 5.02 adjusted net yards per pass attempt.

The NFL average for all passers is 5.32 ANY/A through 13 weeks. Last year the average was 5.11 but we can expect the league average to go down as some more December games are played. To calculate a QB's "value added", you simply compare each QB to the other QBs in the league. Ryan's averaged 7.08 ANY/A while all other QBs have averaged 5.27 ANY/A. So Ryan's been averaging 1.81 more adjusted net yards per pass attempt than other QBs in the NFL, over the course of 379 passing plays. That gives him a value added of 686 yards over average. Flacco's averaged 5.02 ANY/A while all other NFL QBs have averaged 5.33 ANY/A -- that obviously puts Flacco at slightly below the league average. While Flacco's posted impressive numbers this season, he's hurt by his high number of sacks and sack yards lost.

If we use the 3/4 of league average mark, Ryan jumps to 1185 yards over replacement and Flacco at 386 yards over replacement (383 passing yards over replacement plus a three yard rushing bonus). Once again, that seems like a more proper way to measure Flacco's success, as he really has been one of the best rookies we've seen in awhile. Unfortunately, he's playing at the same time as maybe the best rookie we've ever seen. As long as Ryan doesn't implode the rest of the season, he will finish the 2008 season as the greatest rookie QB of all time.

Here are some other historical measures of rookie QB success.

  • The NFL began playing Pro Bowls after the 1938 season. Only Vince Young (2006), Dan Marino (1983), Bob Griese (1967), Joe Namath (1965) and Davey O'Brien (1939) made the Pro Bowl as rookies. Ryan's got some tough competition in the NFC this year -- Kurt Warner and Drew Brees both may throw for 5,000 yards while Eli Manning might be leading a 14-2 Giants team. But he's got a chance to become just the third rookie QB since the merger to make the Pro Bowl.
  • Since 1950, only one rookie QB has been named to an All Pro team -- Dan Marino. Prior to that year, the only QBs to make an All Pro team based on their accomplishments as quarterbacks were Bob Waterfield (1945), Davey O'Brien (1939) and Sammy Baugh (1937).

Of course, no post by me on QBs would be complete without a look at the least valuable rookie seasons of all time. Here's the list, using the league average as the baseline:

-1243	Bud Schwenk	        crd	1942	295	1360	 6	27	 0.69
- 942	David Carr	        htx	2002	444	2592	 9	15	 3.07
- 838	Stan Heath	        gnb	1949	106	 355	 1	14	-2.50
- 831	Ryan Leaf	        sdg	1998	245	1289	 2	15	 1.85
- 815	Kyle Orton	        chi	2005	368	1869	 9	13	 2.97
- 813	Dan Darragh	        buf	1968	215	 917	 3	14	 1.47
- 785	Jack Trudeau	        clt	1986	417	2225	 8	18	 2.87
- 784	Paul Christman**        crd	1945	219	1147	 5	12	 3.00
- 781	Jeff Komlo	        det	1979	368	2238	11	23	 2.33
- 769	Alex Smith	        sfo	2005	165	 875	 1	11	 1.06
- 764	Andrew Walter**        	rai	2006	276	1677	 3	13	 2.69
- 753	Lamar McHan	        crd	1954	255	1475	 6	22	 2.14
- 723	Randy Hedberg        	tam	1977	 90	 244	 0	10	-3.21
- 719	John McCarthy	        crd	1944	 67	 250	 0	13	-5.00
- 711	Terry Bradshaw	        pit	1970	218	1410	 6	24	 0.61
- 706	Chris Weinke	        car	2001	540	2931	11	19	 3.55
- 701	Tobin Rote	        gnb	1950	224	1231	 7	24	 0.99
- 681	Steve DeBerg**	        sfo	1978	302	1570	 8	22	 1.58
- 620	Richard Todd	        nyj	1976	162	 870	 3	12	 0.66
- 586	Norm Snead	        was	1961	375	2337	11	22	 3.89
- 583	Bruce Gradkowski	tam	2006	328	1661	 9	 9	 3.40
- 567	Joey Harrington	        det	2002	429	2294	12	16	 3.70
- 562	Steve Fuller	        kan	1979	270	1484	 6	14	 2.18
- 555	Tom Sherman	        nwe	1968	226	1199	12	16	 2.65
- 554	Bert Jones	        clt	1973	108	 539	 4	12	-0.71
- 549	Donovan McNabb	        phi	1999	216	 948	 8	 7	 2.09
- 547	Terry Hanratty	        pit	1969	126	 716	 8	13	 0.29
- 544	Gary Huff	        chi	1973	126	 525	 3	 8	 0.10
- 535	Kent Nix	        pit	1967	268	1587	 8	19	 3.03
- 528	Randy Johnson	        atl	1966	295	1795	12	21	 3.29
- 516	Rick Mirer	        sea	1993	486	2833	12	17	 3.66
- 508	Troy Aikman	        dal	1989	293	1749	 9	18	 2.80

25 Responses to “Matt Ryan, rookie extraordinaire”

  1. J.D. Says:

    Obviously similarity scores for Ryan will be difficult, since no rookie aside from maybe Marino has done what Ryan's done. But is there any good indicator of what a stellar rookie season means for the rest of a QB's career?

    Also, I really hate thinking about Greg Cook. What a tragedy.

  2. hey Says:

    Hey, just wanted to let you know that there is 0% chance Eli Manning leads a 15-1 Giants team this year.

    [Chase edit: Thanks for the catch. I've updated the post.]

  3. SB Says:

    What were the records of the teams in the seasons indicated? Is the fact that Kyle Orton's 2005 is the 5th worst rookie QB season ever despite playing on an 11 - 5 team a damning indictment of Bob Babich's performance as Ron Rivera's replacement as it seems to look?

  4. Joseph Says:

    JD--I think you would have sim scores all over the map. I mean, look at the lists. On the WORST list, you have Bradshaw, Aikman, and McNabb. Plus some other guys like DeBerg and Burt Jones. Then there are a couple of others who have hung around for a while as backups. The best list, even with the asterisk guys, has some top-notch HOFers and others whose names I had never heard of.
    Specifically looking at Ryan, I've got to believe he has a good to great career barring injuries. I would say Big Ben/McNabb as a floor, Peyton Manning as a ceiling. QB's usually get better as they learn to read defenses and get live game reps. As a Saints fan, I don't look forward to 2 games a year against him for the next 10-15 years.

  5. Brad Oremland Says:

    Counterintuitive list on the worst side. I know David Carr took about a million sacks, but worse than Ryan Leaf, Alex Smith, and Terry Bradshaw doesn't sound right. Is this because Carr played more than Leaf and Smith did? Orton seems low, too, considering that he was more of a talentless game manager than a bumbling season-destroyer.

    Skeptical about Ryan over Marino, Cook, Big
    Ben, Namath, and Conerly. Ryan is what, maybe the 6th or so best QB in the NFL this year?

    I also think it's VERY premature to give him Big Ben/McNabb as a floor. That's quite a floor. And other than Ben, what recent rookie QBs have built on early success? Charlie Batch, Byron Leftwich, Matt Leinart, and Vince Young are all on the "Good" list, and all of them are backups now.

  6. Chase Stuart Says:

    Hey Brad,

    Carr is definitely hurt because of his large number of plays. Basically, he was a bit below average for a full year; Terry Bradshaw was really bad for half a year. So Carr has accumulated more negative value than Bradshaw.

    If we used 3/4 as the baseline instead of half, I suspect Carr would look much better.

    As for the Ryan comment, I'm not sure what you're seeing out of the other guys to put them ahead of Ryan. His numbers are outstanding and many think his play is even better. I think Marino can make a case for being better, but thats really about it.

  7. Kiran Rasaretnam Says:

    Great article - read it with much enthusiasm. On my site, I tried to settle the Flacco versus Ryan argument myself, having read the "Learning Curve" blog post. I hadn't taken the extra step of comparing to other rookie seasons (i.e. Marino). I am in the process of developing a new QB Rating method. It doesn't incorporate yards or touchdowns, instead relying only on completions and interceptions. Yes, I know, it has the same problem as all the other measures, in that rewards the QBs in the more recent years. I am working on a statistical adjustment to "normalize" all the years, so that qbs over time can be compared.

    Keep up the great work.

  8. Denny Says:

    The real BENCHMARK YEAR to shoot for for any QB in the year that they are starting an NFL game for the 1st time is Kurt Warner's year in 1999. I realize that Warner got into 1 game in '98 and had all of 11 pass attempts, but he didn't start a game until '99. But what a year for his 1st year as a starter, ending with a S.B. win and MVP award. You can bet that's what Ryan and Flacco would very much like to duplicate.

  9. MattieShoes Says:

    The best list looks heavily populated by the non-rookie rookies... I suppose one could come up with an "experience" formula that takes both age and games (or games started, or pass attempts) into account. Utilizing thy database of power, you could even derive a formula that fits the data points. :-)

    Another thing that occurred to me -- You could do something similar to what you've done with lifetime value numbers to try and even out the length of their rookie season, only instead of years, you'd be using games, or attempts. Perhaps something as simple as sqrt(attempts) or ln(attempts), so more attempts is still rewarded, but rookies who were exceptionally good (or bad) for 8 games wouldn't be precluded from making an appearance on the lists. :-)

  10. Bill M. Says:

    interesting post

  11. SOBL Says:

    Nice post, and I agree that filtering out the non-rookie rookies woudl give a better pciture fo who to compare these guys to. No one should udnerestimate the bonus of having multiple training camps, conditioning sessions, etc. by being a 2nd or 3rd year non-rookie rookie.

    How soon some of these other websites forget that big ben was not a game manager in the screen pass champion 2001 brady mold. Big Ben was asked to nail deep throws to keep defenses from stuffing the box and convert long 3rd downs when the run game was stuffed.

  12. Denny Says:

    One other thing to consider---alot of Rookie QB's get to start their careers (Rookie Year) with a team that wasn't very good the year before. Marino was one of the very few that got to lead a Super Bowl caliber Team from the year before.

  13. Travis Says:

    I think you have to take out the guys who weren't true rookies. The success of players who start day one vs. those who get to sit on the bench a year or two and learn is well documented. So, taking into account only the "true" rookies, it's down to Marino and Roethlisberger. I think you have to say Ben's the best. He had a much higher comp % than Marino(66%! to 58) and notably higher yds/completion, which led to Ben having over 400 more passing yards than Marino with less attempts. He had less TD's, but you can attribute a lot of that to all those "Bus" one-yard TD runs Pittsburgh had that year. People like to make the argument that Ben inherited a good team, but as someone pointed out, so did Marino. In fact, the '03 Steelers (year prior to BR being drafter) were 6-10, whereas Miami made it to the Super Bowl the year before Marino was drafted! Finally, if you watched Pittsburgh at all that year, they looked pretty mediocre at best with Maddox at the helm and the same when Ben finally played like a rookie in the playoffs. I’d like to see this statistical analysis without sacks included; unless yr David Carr and getting sacked 70 times, I don’t think that statistic has much significance to these kind of discussions. I mean, the NFL didn’t even keep official sack statistics until ’82. Btw "SOBL", you nailed it - what first amazed me about Ben as a rookie was his ability to flat out make tough throws deep down the field that you almost never see rookies make. Not to take anything from Matt Ryan, but I've seen a lot of short passes by him taken much further by RB/receivers making long runs-after-catch.

  14. Travis Says:

    More Ben R. best rookie QB-ever propaganda:

    1) Bill Parcells said Ben Roethlisberger, according to whatever system Bill applied, "rated out as the best Rookie QB ever". Whatever you think of him as a person or even a coach in later years, Bill Parcells knows football, and has been around the game forever. Remember as well he was coaching the Giants during Marino's rookie year, so he was most certainly well-versed on his performance then

    2) Ben vs. Matt Ryan – I looked up some interesting situational stats that weren't covered in this analysis, to perhaps give you some other factors to think about in this discussion. Note: these two areas were chosen (before any stats were looked at!) based on the idea that they represent the two situations in games where QB’s are often needed the most by their team (and where rookies tend to struggle the most), i.e. when trailing or in the final part of the game –
    "When Behind"
    *Roethlisberger (118 att, %71.2 comp, 10.1 avg, 10 TD, 6 INT, 50% 1st down, 110.6 rate)
    *Ryan (155 att, 60% comp,7.1 avg, 3 TD, 3 INT, 34.2% 1st, 79.9 rate)
    "4th Quarter"
    *Roethlisberger (76 att, 75% comp, 8.6 avg, 6TD, 3INT, 46.1% 1st, 110.5 rate)
    *Ryan (95 att, 60% comp, 7.3 avg, 4TD, 1 INT, 32.6%1st, 92.4 rate)

    -Obviously, with any stat analysis like this, nothing can be proven, but you can clearly see that Ben leads in pretty much every category here. I figured since it’s hard to compare their overall numbers (as Ryan has many more attempts), it might be good to look at some more specific detail.

  15. Chase Stuart Says:

    Good points, Travis. Two rebuttals:

    1) Roethlisberger had a 9.5% sack rate compared to Ryan's-through-14-games rate of 3.5%; that's a nontrivial difference. Big Ben's adjusted yards per pass rate was higher, but Ryan's net adjusted yards per pass rate is higher.

    2) The number of attempts matters. Being awesome for 500 attempts is greater than being awesome for 300 attempts. I am more impressed with what Ryan's done.

  16. pm Says:

    Can you update this post with the end of the year stats for both Flacco and Ryan and where they compare all time.

  17. Chase Stuart Says:

    Hey pm,

    Calculating the league average ANY/A will take a bit of time. But Ryan ended the year at 6.82 ANY/A on 429 combined attempts, Flacco 4.63 on 435 combined attempts. Using 5.10 as the league average (just a guess; I'll get the real result later) would put Ryan at +738 in value over average and +1285 over replacement.

    Ryan cooled off a bit the past few weeks, but those numbers would put him #1 on both lists. If the league average is just a bit higher, though, Marino would remain number one at least on the relative to league average list.

  18. Chase Stuart Says:

    Ooops. Those were Ryan's and Flacco's numbers before week 17. This is a good way to show how the system works, though.

    In week 17, Ryan was 10-21 for 160 yards, 1 TD and 2 INT, with one sack that lost six yards. That's a really bad game -- 76 adjusted yards on 22 attempts, or 3.45 ANY/A. That's obviously below average; if we use 5.10 as league average (I still haven't calculated the actual league average yet) that would give him 36 yards below average. Before week 17, he was at 738 yards above average; this would end him at 702 yards above average. So his last game hurt him, which is why I like using the league average as some sort of standard -- more games can hurt you.

    Of course, we can calculate Ryan's entire season the normal way and get the same result. He had 451 combined attempts, 3440 passing yards, 16 TD, 11 INT and 104 sack yards lost. That's 6.65 ANY/A and 701 yards above average (difference due to rounding). That's obviously getting closer and closer to Marino; for their two seasons to be equal, the league average would need to be 5.16. It should be very, very close. Further, once we up the TD bonus to 20 yards, Ryan should fall behind Marino. On the other hand, I feel the 3/4 mark is a more accurate one to use for these sorts of purposes.

    Using 5.10 as league average, Ryan is 701 yards above average and 1276 yards above replacement. Flacco is at 4.99 ANY/A, so he'd be at -51 yards above average and 536 yards above replacement.

  19. pm Says:

    Can you update the post if you have the data and say where Flacco ranks on both list. Do you think Flacco is one of the all-time great rookie QB's (top 10).

  20. Chase Stuart Says:

    pm,

    Calculating ANY/A for the league will take a bit of time and I've got a few other things on my plate right now; but using 5.10 as a good guess for the league average, Flacco would have 536 yards above replacement.

    That's obviously behind Ryan/Marino/Roethlisberger/Cook, the Mount Rushmore of rookie QBs. It will be behind Joe Namath, who had quite the rookie season himself -- he ranked 10th in value above average and had 11th in replacement value compared to all other QBs in 1965; Flacco won't rank nearly that high compared to all other QBs in '08. Unitas had a similarly good rookie year nine years earlier.

    Charlie Batch had a strong rookie season for the Lions, as did Byron Leftwich for the Jags. I'd slot Flacco's '08 season right behind them, for ninth on the all time list. I'd ignore the rookie seasons from Conerly, Songin, Bulger, Moon, Garcia, Flores and Celeri; in my mind, they weren't rookies in the sense of the word that Flacco is a rookie. Unitas is a slightly different case, but I feel very comfortable classifying him as a rookie in 1956.

    Of the eight rookie seasons I slotted ahead of Flacco, only Leftwich's should be controversial because he averaged fewer ANY/A than Flacco. But even just five years ago, leaguewide ANY/A was only 4.83; so Leftwich was slightly above average and Flacco was slightly below average.

  21. Chase Stuart Says:

    I ran the numbers, PM, and they were interesting. NFL QBs had their greatest season ever, averaging 5.33 ANY/A (and 5.70 ANY/A if you go with 20 yards/TD). That 5.33 is quite a bit higher than the 5.0 average of the past three seasons.

    What's it mean? Ryan and his 6.65 average on 451 attempts? Outside of Ryan, the league average was 5.299; therefore he added 611 yards over league average. Obviously that puts him in second place. Compared to replacement, though, he added 1209 yards of value. Therefore, I still feel comfortable with calling him the best rookie QB of all time.

    Flacco averaged 4.99 and the rest of the league averaged 5.343. That means he was 163 yards worse than average and 452 yards above replacement. Ironically, that puts him right on the Matt Leinart/Vince Young level.

  22. pm Says:

    Where does Peyton Manning's Rookie season rank on this list?

  23. Denny Says:

    Chase---IMO, you're not seeing the BIG PICTURE with this thread when you use the stats that you choose to use and completely ignore what these guys do in the Playoffs. Joe Flacco just distanced himself from the rest by leading his Team to a 2nd PO win, and that cannot be ignored. Could he have thrown some picks and lost either of these games---absolutely, but he didn't. Flacco's ROOKIE SEASON now has to go down as the BEST EVER.

  24. AG Says:

    Denny,
    No comparison will satisfy all parties in a sport filled with endless variables. However this, for better or for worse, is a regular season discussion. Kudos to the Ravens for winning a couple of playoffs games, but statistically Ryan's individual performance in the regular was significantly better.

  25. Denny Says:

    AG----Yep, I hear you, but keep in mind what Dan Marino said sometime after the '84 S.B. game. And I quote:" I'd trade every Record we broke to be Super Bowl Champs". Do you get the feeling that Dan was well aware of the significance of the Playoffs vs. the Reg. season? I sure do. As we are both aware, Dan's Records that he was referring to were ALL Reg. season Records.

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