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PI Finds: Final 2010 Team Adjusted Net Passing Yards per Attempt, SRS-Style

Posted by Neil Paine on January 4, 2011

Taking into account opponent and game location, which 2010 teams had the best passing offenses and defenses according to Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt? Let's use the PFR team Game Finder and Doug's SRS methodology (or, if you prefer, Chase's Rearview Adjusted Yards Per Attempt methodology) to find out...

With the team game finder, I called up every team passing performance of the 2010 season. Using the CSV option, I dumped the results into Excel and was quickly able to create a table listing the home and road teams' passing stats for each game of the season:

2010 Game-by-Game Passing Stats

From there, I set up an SRS-style recursive loop where every game's home and road ANY/A are predicted by the following formulae:

Home ANY/A = Lg Avg  ANY/A + .5*HFA + Home Pass Offense Rating + Away Pass Defense Rating

Away ANY/A = Lg Avg ANY/A - .5*HFA + Away Pass Offense Rating + Home Pass Defense Rating

Here were the results (negative is good for defenses):

Team tmDpbk Offense Rk oppDrpbk Defense Rk Net Pass Rk
ARI 611 -2.40 31 566 0.62 26 -3.02 32
ATL 600 0.67 8 591 -0.25 12 0.92 8
BAL 531 0.84 7 623 -1.08 3 1.92 5
BUF 553 -0.43 23 500 0.16 21 -0.59 21
CAR 534 -2.81 32 557 -0.37 10 -2.44 30
CHI 522 -0.79 26 616 -0.98 4 0.19 13
CIN 618 0.26 14 541 -0.33 11 0.59 9
CLE 514 -0.58 24 536 -0.14 15 -0.44 20
DAL 607 0.34 12 576 0.60 25 -0.27 18
DEN 620 0.61 9 525 1.81 32 -1.20 27
DET 660 0.07 16 562 0.23 23 -0.16 17
GNB 579 1.57 3 574 -1.52 2 3.09 3
HOU 606 0.98 6 577 1.75 31 -0.77 22
IND 695 0.31 13 565 0.09 19 0.22 12
JAX 507 -0.73 25 532 1.58 30 -2.31 29
KAN 507 -0.07 17 620 -0.04 17 -0.04 16
Team tmDpbk Offense Rk oppDrpbk Defense Rk Net Pass Rk
MIA 595 -0.34 21 541 0.08 18 -0.42 19
MIN 541 -1.39 29 560 -0.20 13 -1.19 26
NOR 687 0.34 11 527 0.24 24 0.10 15
NWE 532 3.02 1 647 -0.52 7 3.54 1
NYG 555 0.18 15 585 -0.18 14 0.36 11
NYJ 553 -0.15 18 571 -0.74 6 0.59 10
OAK 535 -0.80 27 517 0.10 20 -0.90 23
PHI 611 0.46 10 575 -0.52 8 0.97 7
PIT 522 1.55 4 641 -1.55 1 3.10 2
SDG 582 1.58 2 535 -0.97 5 2.55 4
SEA 579 -1.20 28 622 1.33 29 -2.54 31
SFO 544 -0.22 19 586 0.91 28 -1.12 25
STL 624 -1.49 30 613 0.19 22 -1.68 28
TAM 524 1.18 5 547 -0.14 16 1.32 6
TEN 501 -0.26 20 665 -0.40 9 0.13 14
WAS 651 -0.38 22 607 0.74 27 -1.12 24
Lg Avg ANY/A = 5.73
HFA = 0.35

From these ratings, we can predict the most likely ANY/A for each team in this weekend's playoff matchups:

Seattle offense (-1.20) vs. New Orleans defense (+0.24): 5.73 + .5*0.35 - 1.20 + 0.24 = 4.94
New Orleans offense (+0.34) vs. Seattle defense (+1.33): 5.73 - .5*0.35 +0.34 + 1.33 = 7.23

Indy offense (+0.31) vs. Jets defense (-0.74): 5.73 + .5*0.35 +0.31 - 0.74 = 5.48
Jets offense (-0.15) vs. Indy defense (+0.09): 5.73 - .5*0.35 - 0.15 + 0.09 = 5.50

KC offense (-0.07) vs. Baltimore defense (-1.08): 5.73 + .5*0.35 - 0.07 - 1.08 = 4.75
Baltimore offense (+0.84) vs. KC defense (-0.04): 5.73 - .5*0.35 +0.84 - 0.04 = 6.36

Philly offense (+0.46) vs. Green Bay defense (-1.52): 5.73 + .5*0.35 + 0.46 - 1.52 = 4.84
Green Bay offense (+1.57) vs. Philly defense (-0.52): 5.73 - .5*0.35 +1.57 - 0.52 = 6.61

This entry was posted on Tuesday, January 4th, 2011 at 11:22 am and is filed under PI Finds, Simple Rating System, Site Features, Statgeekery. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.