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PI Finds: Final 2010 Team Adjusted Rushing Yards per Attempt, SRS-Style

Posted by Neil Paine on January 6, 2011

As a follow-up to the 2010 team passing ratings I posted Tuesday, I ran the same process on team rushing performances. The formula for adjusted rushing yards per attempt was:

ARY/A = (Rush Yds + 18 * Rush TD) / Rush Att

(The 18 comes from Chase's post on the value of TDs.)

Using the PFR Team Game Finder, I plugged every team single-game rushing performance of the 2010 season into the formula above, then adjusted for strength of schedule and game location using an SRS-style recursive loop. The result was a set of ratings that best predicted every game according to these equations:

Home ARY/A = Lg Avg  ARY/A + .5*HFA + Home Rush Offense Rating + Away Rush Defense Rating

Away ARY/A = Lg Avg ARY/A - .5*HFA + Away Rush Offense Rating + Home Rush Defense Rating

Here were the ratings (again, negative is good for defenses):

Team tmRush Offense Rk opRush Defense Rk Net Rush Rk
ARI 320 0.01 12 526 0.59 30 -0.58 24
ATL 497 -0.58 29 366 0.42 25 -1.00 30
BAL 487 -0.57 28 384 -0.45 7 -0.13 18
BUF 401 0.00 13 571 0.58 29 -0.57 23
CAR 428 -0.25 21 503 0.23 22 -0.48 21
CHI 414 -0.34 24 386 -0.42 8 0.08 16
CIN 428 -0.70 31 416 0.55 28 -1.25 32
CLE 413 -0.19 19 505 -0.21 13 0.02 17
DAL 428 -0.15 16 401 -0.24 11 0.09 15
DEN 398 -0.17 18 531 0.69 31 -0.86 29
DET 404 -0.22 20 443 0.46 26 -0.69 27
GNB 421 -0.30 22 395 0.23 21 -0.53 22
HOU 423 1.04 2 433 -0.29 10 1.32 2
IND 393 -0.33 23 445 -0.02 15 -0.31 20
JAX 512 0.57 5 416 0.46 27 0.11 14
KAN 556 0.37 7 408 0.00 16 0.37 12
Team tmRush Offense Rk opRush Defense Rk Net Rush Rk
MIA 445 -0.66 30 447 -0.85 3 0.18 13
MIN 441 0.29 8 417 -0.34 9 0.64 7
NOR 380 -0.40 25 421 0.41 24 -0.82 28
NWE 454 0.59 4 409 0.14 18 0.45 9
NYG 480 0.52 6 389 -0.21 12 0.74 6
NYJ 534 0.21 10 408 -0.57 6 0.79 5
OAK 504 0.97 3 474 0.36 23 0.61 8
PHI 427 1.57 1 423 -0.09 14 1.66 1
PIT 471 -0.13 15 333 -1.27 1 1.14 3
SDG 457 -0.16 17 404 -0.59 5 0.42 10
SEA 385 -0.56 27 452 0.07 17 -0.62 25
SFO 401 -0.48 26 447 -0.85 2 0.37 11
STL 429 -0.84 32 404 0.17 19 -1.01 31
TAM 431 0.22 9 444 0.91 32 -0.68 26
TEN 406 0.18 11 474 -0.84 4 1.02 4
WAS 351 -0.04 14 444 0.19 20 -0.23 19
Lg Avg ARY/A = 4.73
HFA = 0.23

And just as I did with the passing ratings, I can also set up rushing predictions for this weekend's games:

Seattle offense (-0.56) vs. New Orleans defense (+0.41): 4.73 + .5*0.23 - 0.56 + 0.41 = 4.70
New Orleans offense (-0.40) vs. Seattle defense (+0.07): 4.73 - .5*0.23 - 0.40 + 0.07 = 4.28

Indy offense (-0.33) vs. Jets defense (-0.57): 4.73 + .5*0.23 - 0.33 - 0.57 = 3.94
Jets offense (+0.21) vs. Indy defense (-0.02): 4.73 - .5*0.23 + 0.21 - 0.02 = 4.81

KC offense (+0.37) vs. Baltimore defense (-0.45): 4.73 + .5*0.23 + 0.37 - 0.45 = 4.76
Baltimore offense (-0.57) vs. KC defense (0.00): 4.73 - .5*0.23 - 0.57 + 0.00 = 4.03

Philly offense (+1.57) vs. Green Bay defense (+0.23): 4.73 + .5*0.23 + 1.57 + 0.23 = 6.64
Green Bay offense (-0.30) vs. Philly defense (-0.09): 4.73 - .5*0.23 - 0.30 - 0.09 = 4.22

This entry was posted on Thursday, January 6th, 2011 at 12:40 pm and is filed under PI Finds, Play Index, Simple Rating System, Site Features, Statgeekery. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.