Pro Football Reference Blog

The topic of Ahman Green and Deuce McAllister came up in the comments to this post on running back deterioration. I am going to set aside the particulars of their team situations (e.g. the Reggie Bush factor) and just take a quick look at what the historical data says about running backs coming back from significant injuries. Specifically, I found all running backs since 1970 who:

• Finished in the fantasy top 20 for two straight years, and then. . .


• Missed at least half the games in the following season. . .


• at age 26 through 29 (Green was 28 last year and McAllister was 27)

Then I checked to see what the rest of their careers looked like. YR is the year of the injury-plagued season, age is the player's age for the next season, and the numbers shown are the player's fantasy rank among all running backs during the given year. To get your bearings, check out the Terrell Davis line. He was the #2 ranked running back, then he was the #1 running back, then he got hurt and ranked #77. The following two years he ranked 58th and 46th.

Player                YR  age     N-2 N-1  N  N+1 N+2 N+3 N+4 N+5 N+6

===============================+=====================================

Ahman Green          2005  29  |    2  13  69

Deuce McAllister     2005  28  |    7  17  54

Terrell Davis        1999  28  |    2   1  77  58  46

Jamal Anderson       1999  28  |   10   2 119  22  65

Raymont Harris       1998  29  |   20  15  71     121

Dorsey Levens        1998  29  |   19   3  51   6  49  71  50  70  42

Greg Bell            1990  29  |    4   7  96

Dalton Hilliard      1990  27  |   16   1  68  48  18  55

Marcus Allen         1989  30  |   10  15  60  13  59  46   5  19  24

Billy Sims           1984  30  |   10  15  25

Wilbert Montgomery   1983  30  |    6   6 102  19  83

Sherman Smith        1980  27  |   17   7 118  43  51 107

Greg Pruitt          1979  29  |    8  20  88  51  38  97  94 135

Lawrence McCutcheon  1978  29  |    5   4  72 101  75 119

Marv Hubbard         1975  30  |   16  17  73     108

Essex Johnson        1974  29  |   16   8 108  74  75

Mercury Morris       1974  28  |    7  10  80  25  83

On one hand, there is very little historical precedent for someone in a situation like the one Green and McAllister find themselves in to return all the way to their peak production. But that's probably true of anyone in that age group who was once a top-10 back and then had a large dropoff for any reason.

On the other hand, they don't have to return to their peak production, or even anywhere close to it, in order to be worth the price you'll pay for them in a fantasy league. Footballguys.com currently has McAllister and Green ranked 24th and 32nd, respectively, for redraft leagues and 22nd and 33rd for keeper leagues. Of the players on the list above who actually played the next year, nearly half of them were able to turn in seasons at or above that level.

I'm guessing that the fantasy football market, as usual, is pricing these guys pretty accurately right now.