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ShareThisWhich Quarterbacks’ Offenses Exceed Expectations in the Playoffs?
Curious after Peyton Manning & the Colts scored 16 points at home against the Jets on Saturday, I wanted to calculate how many points we should have expected them to put on the board, knowing the opponent and game location.
According to the Simple Rating System (SRS), the Jets' defense was +4.2 this season -- meaning they allowed 4.2 fewer PPG than an average team after accounting for strength of schedule. The average NFL team scored 22.0 PPG during the regular-season, so at a neutral site we'd expect an average team to score 17.8 PPG against the New York defense. And since the Colts were at home, 0.95 PPG (half the overall home-field advantage in 2010) should be added in as well, giving a final expectation of 18.8 PPG for a league-average team against the Jets at home. Since the Colts actually scored 16, we can score this performance as -2.8 points relative to average.
Additionally, we wouldn't have expected the Colts' offense to be average based on the regular season. Their offensive SRS was +3.7, which means Indianapolis "should have" scored 22.0 + 0.95 + 3.7 - 4.2 = 22.5 pts against the Jets at home. This yields a score of -6.5 pts relative to regular-season expectations.
Here's Peyton Manning's entire playoff career according to this methodology:
| Date | Tm | Opp | tmPts | Cmp | Att | Yds | TD | Int | LgPPG | HFA | OSRS | oDSRS | Pts>Avg | Pts>Exp | tmAtt | FracG | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1/16/2000 | IND | TEN | L | 16 | 19 | 42 | 227 | 0 | 0 | 20.8 | 3.1 | 6.6 | -1.0 | -7.3 | -13.9 | 42 | 1.00 | |
| 12/30/2000 | IND | @ | MIA | L | 17 | 17 | 32 | 194 | 1 | 0 | 20.7 | 2.8 | 7.1 | 7.1 | 4.8 | -2.3 | 32 | 1.00 |
| 1/4/2003 | IND | @ | NYJ | L | 0 | 14 | 31 | 137 | 0 | 2 | 21.7 | 2.2 | 0.4 | 2.3 | -18.3 | -18.7 | 31 | 1.00 |
| 1/4/2004 | IND | DEN | W | 41 | 22 | 26 | 377 | 5 | 0 | 20.8 | 3.6 | 8.2 | 3.1 | 21.5 | 13.3 | 31 | 0.84 | |
| 1/11/2004 | IND | @ | KAN | W | 38 | 22 | 30 | 304 | 3 | 0 | 20.8 | 3.6 | 8.2 | -0.9 | 18.0 | 9.8 | 30 | 1.00 |
| 1/18/2004 | IND | @ | NWE | L | 14 | 23 | 47 | 237 | 1 | 4 | 20.8 | 3.6 | 8.2 | 4.9 | -0.2 | -8.4 | 47 | 1.00 |
| 1/9/2005 | IND | DEN | W | 49 | 27 | 33 | 458 | 4 | 1 | 21.5 | 2.5 | 11.7 | 4.3 | 30.6 | 18.9 | 33 | 1.00 | |
| 1/16/2005 | IND | @ | NWE | L | 3 | 27 | 42 | 238 | 0 | 1 | 21.5 | 2.5 | 11.7 | 6.5 | -10.7 | -22.4 | 42 | 1.00 |
| 1/15/2006 | IND | PIT | L | 18 | 22 | 38 | 290 | 1 | 0 | 20.6 | 3.6 | 5.6 | 4.0 | -0.4 | -6.0 | 38 | 1.00 | |
| 1/6/2007 | IND | KAN | W | 23 | 30 | 38 | 268 | 1 | 3 | 20.7 | 0.8 | 6.9 | 0.6 | 2.5 | -4.4 | 38 | 1.00 | |
| 1/13/2007 | IND | @ | BAL | W | 15 | 15 | 30 | 170 | 0 | 2 | 20.7 | 0.8 | 6.9 | 7.8 | 2.6 | -4.3 | 30 | 1.00 |
| 1/21/2007 | IND | NWE | W | 38 | 27 | 47 | 349 | 1 | 1 | 20.7 | 0.8 | 6.9 | 5.9 | 22.8 | 15.9 | 47 | 1.00 | |
| 2/4/2007 | IND | N | CHI | W | 29 | 25 | 38 | 247 | 1 | 1 | 20.7 | 0.8 | 6.9 | 3.0 | 11.3 | 4.4 | 38 | 1.00 |
| 1/13/2008 | IND | SDG | L | 24 | 33 | 48 | 402 | 3 | 2 | 21.7 | 2.9 | 6.6 | 4.5 | 5.4 | -1.2 | 48 | 1.00 | |
| 1/3/2009 | IND | @ | SDG | L | 17 | 25 | 42 | 310 | 1 | 0 | 22.0 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 0.0 | -3.8 | -6.4 | 42 | 1.00 |
| 1/16/2010 | IND | BAL | W | 20 | 30 | 44 | 246 | 2 | 1 | 21.5 | 2.2 | 4.4 | 4.9 | 2.3 | -2.1 | 44 | 1.00 | |
| 1/24/2010 | IND | NYJ | W | 30 | 26 | 39 | 377 | 3 | 0 | 21.5 | 2.2 | 4.4 | 7.5 | 14.9 | 10.5 | 39 | 1.00 | |
| 2/7/2010 | IND | N | NOR | L | 17 | 31 | 45 | 333 | 1 | 1 | 21.5 | 2.2 | 4.4 | -0.5 | -5.0 | -9.4 | 45 | 1.00 |
| 1/8/2011 | IND | NYJ | L | 16 | 18 | 26 | 225 | 1 | 0 | 22.0 | 1.9 | 3.7 | 4.2 | -2.8 | -6.5 | 26 | 1.00 | |
| Career | 19 G | 425 | 453 | 718 | 5389 | 29 | 19 | 4.5 | -1.9 | 18.84 |
Weighting by the percentage of team QB pass attempts taken in each game (I'll call these "Fractional Games"), Manning's offense averages +4.5 PPG relative to average in the postseason and -1.9 PPG relative to what we'd expect from the regular season. How do these marks stack up to other QBs since the merger? With a minimum of 4 career fractional playoff games, here are the QBs whose offenses played the best relative to the league average:
| Quarterback | G | Att | FracG | Pts>Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kurt Warner | 13 | 462 | 12.72 | 11.3 |
| Jeff Hostetler | 5 | 115 | 4.96 | 9.5 |
| Troy Aikman | 16 | 502 | 15.09 | 9.4 |
| Steve Young | 20 | 471 | 13.47 | 8.8 |
| Jim Kelly | 17 | 545 | 15.80 | 8.6 |
| Tony Eason | 5 | 72 | 4.17 | 8.5 |
| Bernie Kosar | 9 | 270 | 7.35 | 8.3 |
| Joe Montana | 23 | 734 | 21.16 | 8.1 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 10 | 278 | 9.96 | 7.9 |
| Terry Bradshaw | 19 | 456 | 18.15 | 7.8 |
| Drew Brees | 7 | 285 | 7.00 | 7.8 |
| Brad Johnson | 7 | 224 | 6.97 | 7.7 |
| Rich Gannon | 9 | 240 | 7.14 | 7.7 |
| Joe Theismann | 8 | 211 | 7.92 | 7.6 |
| Ken Stabler | 13 | 351 | 12.40 | 7.5 |
| Danny White | 13 | 360 | 10.03 | 7.0 |
| Roger Staubach | 18 | 405 | 16.73 | 6.7 |
| Jim Plunkett | 10 | 272 | 10.00 | 6.5 |
| John Elway | 22 | 651 | 20.75 | 6.3 |
| Brett Favre | 24 | 791 | 23.76 | 6.2 |
| Wade Wilson | 6 | 185 | 5.00 | 5.6 |
| Mark Rypien | 8 | 234 | 7.36 | 5.5 |
| Matt Hasselbeck | 10 | 360 | 10.00 | 5.5 |
| Ken Anderson | 6 | 166 | 5.93 | 5.1 |
| Tom Brady | 18 | 637 | 17.46 | 4.7 |
| Peyton Manning | 19 | 718 | 18.84 | 4.5 |
| Kerry Collins | 7 | 241 | 6.98 | 4.3 |
| Rex Grossman | 4 | 133 | 4.00 | 4.2 |
| Jake Delhomme | 8 | 226 | 8.00 | 4.2 |
| Dan Fouts | 7 | 286 | 7.00 | 4.1 |
| Richard Todd | 4 | 140 | 4.00 | 4.0 |
| Bob Griese | 12 | 208 | 10.84 | 3.9 |
| Steve Bartkowski | 4 | 111 | 4.00 | 3.8 |
| Mark Brunell | 11 | 307 | 9.69 | 3.7 |
| Philip Rivers | 7 | 229 | 6.83 | 3.5 |
| Billy Kilmer | 7 | 178 | 6.60 | 3.5 |
| Joe Flacco | 6 | 154 | 6.00 | 3.4 |
| Fran Tarkenton | 11 | 292 | 10.75 | 3.3 |
| Donovan McNabb | 16 | 577 | 15.52 | 2.8 |
| Steve McNair | 10 | 311 | 9.96 | 2.6 |
| Boomer Esiason | 5 | 99 | 4.80 | 2.5 |
| Warren Moon | 10 | 403 | 9.85 | 2.4 |
| Michael Vick | 6 | 141 | 5.03 | 2.4 |
| Dan Pastorini | 5 | 116 | 4.78 | 2.2 |
| Trent Dilfer | 6 | 135 | 5.81 | 2.0 |
| Randall Cunningham | 10 | 365 | 9.74 | 1.9 |
| Chad Pennington | 6 | 216 | 5.98 | 1.8 |
| Dan Marino | 18 | 687 | 17.59 | 1.7 |
| Neil O'Donnell | 9 | 275 | 7.04 | 1.6 |
| John Brodie | 5 | 143 | 5.00 | 1.5 |
| Jim McMahon | 8 | 155 | 5.50 | 1.4 |
| Jeff Garcia | 6 | 217 | 6.00 | 1.3 |
| Ron Jaworski | 9 | 271 | 8.92 | 0.8 |
| Drew Bledsoe | 7 | 252 | 6.46 | 0.7 |
| Jim Harbaugh | 5 | 163 | 4.97 | 0.7 |
| Phil Simms | 10 | 279 | 9.66 | 0.5 |
| Jake Plummer | 6 | 197 | 6.00 | 0.3 |
| Vinny Testaverde | 5 | 189 | 5.00 | -0.1 |
| Craig Morton | 9 | 177 | 7.35 | -0.5 |
| Elvis Grbac | 6 | 133 | 4.06 | -0.7 |
| Doug Williams | 7 | 169 | 6.47 | -1.1 |
| Kordell Stewart | 6 | 142 | 4.30 | -1.2 |
| Pat Haden | 5 | 123 | 4.54 | -1.3 |
| Mike Tomczak | 6 | 143 | 4.86 | -1.7 |
| Jim Everett | 5 | 176 | 5.00 | -1.8 |
| Eli Manning | 7 | 193 | 7.00 | -2.0 |
| Johnny Unitas | 5 | 113 | 4.38 | -2.3 |
| Stan Humphries | 6 | 228 | 5.89 | -2.3 |
| Jay Schroeder | 6 | 158 | 4.83 | -2.5 |
| Dave Krieg | 11 | 282 | 8.80 | -2.8 |
| Tony Romo | 4 | 135 | 4.00 | -3.2 |
| Vince Ferragamo | 7 | 188 | 6.46 | -3.3 |
And here are the QBs whose offenses exceeded their regular-season expectations by the most in the postseason:
| Quarterback | G | Att | FracG | Pts>Exp |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Hostetler | 5 | 115 | 4.96 | 9.1 |
| Bernie Kosar | 9 | 270 | 7.35 | 6.6 |
| Brad Johnson | 7 | 224 | 6.97 | 6.2 |
| Tony Eason | 5 | 72 | 4.17 | 5.9 |
| Troy Aikman | 16 | 502 | 15.09 | 5.5 |
| Jim Kelly | 17 | 545 | 15.80 | 5.3 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 10 | 278 | 9.96 | 5.2 |
| Steve Bartkowski | 4 | 111 | 4.00 | 4.6 |
| Kerry Collins | 7 | 241 | 6.98 | 4.6 |
| Kurt Warner | 13 | 462 | 12.72 | 4.5 |
| Joe Montana | 23 | 734 | 21.16 | 4.3 |
| Matt Hasselbeck | 10 | 360 | 10.00 | 3.9 |
| Terry Bradshaw | 19 | 456 | 18.15 | 3.5 |
| Jake Delhomme | 8 | 226 | 8.00 | 3.4 |
| Wade Wilson | 6 | 185 | 5.00 | 3.0 |
| Trent Dilfer | 6 | 135 | 5.81 | 2.8 |
| Ken Stabler | 13 | 351 | 12.40 | 2.7 |
| Jim Plunkett | 10 | 272 | 10.00 | 2.4 |
| Jim Harbaugh | 5 | 163 | 4.97 | 2.3 |
| Mark Brunell | 11 | 307 | 9.69 | 2.2 |
| Rich Gannon | 9 | 240 | 7.14 | 2.2 |
| Rex Grossman | 4 | 133 | 4.00 | 1.9 |
| Chad Pennington | 6 | 216 | 5.98 | 1.7 |
| Ken Anderson | 6 | 166 | 5.93 | 1.5 |
| Joe Theismann | 8 | 211 | 7.92 | 1.5 |
| Dan Pastorini | 5 | 116 | 4.78 | 1.5 |
| John Elway | 22 | 651 | 20.75 | 1.5 |
| Danny White | 13 | 360 | 10.03 | 1.5 |
| Billy Kilmer | 7 | 178 | 6.60 | 1.4 |
| Steve Young | 20 | 471 | 13.47 | 1.4 |
| Brett Favre | 24 | 791 | 23.76 | 1.1 |
| Roger Staubach | 18 | 405 | 16.73 | 1.0 |
| Bob Griese | 12 | 208 | 10.84 | 0.7 |
| Michael Vick | 6 | 141 | 5.03 | 0.6 |
| Drew Brees | 7 | 285 | 7.00 | 0.5 |
| Fran Tarkenton | 11 | 292 | 10.75 | 0.5 |
| Joe Flacco | 6 | 154 | 6.00 | 0.3 |
| Neil O'Donnell | 9 | 275 | 7.04 | 0.2 |
| Donovan McNabb | 16 | 577 | 15.52 | 0.0 |
| Steve McNair | 10 | 311 | 9.96 | -0.3 |
| Jeff Garcia | 6 | 217 | 6.00 | -0.3 |
| Phil Simms | 10 | 279 | 9.66 | -0.5 |
| Ron Jaworski | 9 | 271 | 8.92 | -0.5 |
| Doug Williams | 7 | 169 | 6.47 | -0.6 |
| Mark Rypien | 8 | 234 | 7.36 | -0.8 |
| Tom Brady | 18 | 637 | 17.46 | -1.2 |
| Jake Plummer | 6 | 197 | 6.00 | -1.5 |
| Warren Moon | 10 | 403 | 9.85 | -1.5 |
| Mike Tomczak | 6 | 143 | 4.86 | -1.7 |
| Dan Marino | 18 | 687 | 17.59 | -1.8 |
| Peyton Manning | 19 | 718 | 18.84 | -1.9 |
| Elvis Grbac | 6 | 133 | 4.06 | -2.0 |
| Philip Rivers | 7 | 229 | 6.83 | -2.1 |
| Jim McMahon | 8 | 155 | 5.50 | -2.1 |
| Craig Morton | 9 | 177 | 7.35 | -2.2 |
| Vinny Testaverde | 5 | 189 | 5.00 | -2.4 |
| Richard Todd | 4 | 140 | 4.00 | -2.6 |
| Drew Bledsoe | 7 | 252 | 6.46 | -2.6 |
| Boomer Esiason | 5 | 99 | 4.80 | -2.6 |
| Randall Cunningham | 10 | 365 | 9.74 | -2.9 |
| John Brodie | 5 | 143 | 5.00 | -3.0 |
| Kordell Stewart | 6 | 142 | 4.30 | -3.1 |
| Johnny Unitas | 5 | 113 | 4.38 | -3.7 |
| Vince Ferragamo | 7 | 188 | 6.46 | -4.2 |
| Dan Fouts | 7 | 286 | 7.00 | -4.2 |
| Stan Humphries | 6 | 228 | 5.89 | -4.2 |
| Pat Haden | 5 | 123 | 4.54 | -5.1 |
| Eli Manning | 7 | 193 | 7.00 | -5.4 |
| Jay Schroeder | 6 | 158 | 4.83 | -5.5 |
| Jim Everett | 5 | 176 | 5.00 | -6.1 |
| Dave Krieg | 11 | 282 | 8.80 | -6.2 |
| Tony Romo | 4 | 135 | 4.00 | -6.6 |
For those expecting this to be a referendum on Tom Brady-vs-Peyton Manning, sorry to disappoint: Brady and Manning's offenses have actually performed similarly in the postseason, with Brady's playing only slightly better both relative to average and regular-season expectations (each was negative in the latter regard).
Instead, we see Kurt Warner emerge as ringleader of the best post-merger playoff offenses, while Jeff Hostetler's teams come out on top in the "clutch" category (offenses that raised their games in the playoffs). And if we extend the requirement to 10+ fractional games, the leaders of the clutchiest offenses were Troy Aikman and Jim Kelly, who (not coincidentally) faced off in a pair of Super Bowls during the 1990s.
Now, the following disclaimers are obvious, but they still bear mentioning: This system credits PPG entirely to the offense, including defensive TDs. Also, I am assigning all of the offense's performance, good or bad, to the quarterback here, which is clearly inaccurate and/or unfair. Some QBs had the benefit of playing with great teammates; others did not have that luxury, and therefore their ratings will be lower through no fault of their own.
That being said, it is still interesting to see where perception meets reality for these QBs' offenses during the playoffs.
This entry was posted on Monday, January 10th, 2011 at 7:00 am and is filed under Best/Worst Ever, History, Quarterbacks, Simple Rating System, Statgeekery. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.
Interesting to note that, in general, the top "better in the postseason" QBs tend to be QBs who typically had a strong defense/running game to help them along, with Kelly, Warner, and Montana being the only ones in the top 20, I'd say, who were known as "elite" QBs throughout their careers. Guys like Aikman, Ben, and Bradshaw, while pretty good, were helped immensely by their running game and/or defenses. (I'd lump Hasselbeck in that category, too, though maybe not after last weekend...)
Return TDs have to be accounted for or else you're getting team data rather than offense.
Brady's had 7 return TDs (plus a safety) in his 18 playoff games. Warner had 6. You can add up the return TDs for Manning (1), Marino (0), Roethlisberger (3), and Young (3) and they only combine for 7 in 61 starts
I'm pretty sure I mentioned that in the disclaimer.
Warner did average 304 yds, a rating of 102.8, & 8.53 ay/a in the postseason. He's turned up on several posts like this this season.
I'm starting to get a hint that the guy was really, really good.
Here's another look at the same issue (for the last 15 years) using AYA compared to game-by-game results. Among QBs with 5+ starts...
Kurt Warner dominates, with Jake Delhomme co-dominating (to my considerable surprise) until he crashed and burned in his last two games. No middle ground for him!
The average AYA for a winning playoff QB in these 15 years (326 QB performances) was 7.61, and for a losing QB was 4.58. Call better than 7.61 AYA a "winning-quality" effort by a QB, and worse than 4.58 AYA a "losing-quality" effort. If a QB puts up a winning-quality effort but his team loses, we can say his team (or bad luck) sank him after he did his part. If a QB puts up a losing-quality effort but his team wins, we can say his team carried him to victory in spite of his poor performance (or good luck bailed him out).
Here's some fuel for the Manning-Brady fire -- maybe making it a "Manning-Pats QBs" fire, since we can add Drew Bledsoe.
No QB in 15 years has lost more than one winning-quality effort -- except Peyton Manning, who yesterday suffered his fourth. Little help, guys?
(Though Peyton really can't complain. In his one successful Super Bowl run he played two losing-quality games and another below-average, the Colts winning all three obviously. When he collected his ring all the pundits proclaimed: "At last Peyton has matured into a champion who can win the big game!" -- after he put up by far his worst post-season numbers of his career.)
On the other side, Brady-Bledsoe have won 4 losing-quality performances plus another 6 below-average ones, against only a single loss of an above-average quality performance. That is +9 net overall. Nine such wins in a single elimination tournament -- with below-average to losing-quality QB efforts -- is HUGE. It's 9 of their total 17 wins -- nine years they weren't eliminated from the tournament with below-average or worse QB play.
And it ain't just Brady. Bledsoe was the worst performing of all the QBs in the lot: of his 6 games, 4 were losing-quality and 2 below-average ... and he had 4 wins!
Brady's play has been a little above .500 quality by AYA -- 6.6 AYA compared to an average for all of 6.1, ranked 11th of 26 QBs -- but in games he's played the Pats are 14-4.
In all the other numbers there is nothing like these for Bledsoe and Brady -- much less for the two of them combined! Maybe God is a Pats fan?
Interesting to note that, in general, the top "better in the postseason" QBs tend to be QBs who typically had a strong defense/running game to help them along
By AYA, in the data of my previous comment, two of the very best post-season runs were put together by ... Trent Dilfer and Mark Sanchez. Two guys not exacty known for flinging the ball far with great accuracy ... but two guys playing with league #1 Ds and top running games who threw a quite small number of passes. But even when throwing only a small number of passes a big AYA goes very strongly with winning. (In fact it goes even more strongly than throwing a lot of passes with the same big AYA does.)
In the statistics community there's a lot of skepticism about the idea that "the run sets up the pass". But in the playoffs there's a lot of evidence that the run *and* a top D really does set up the pass. (Running when 17 down isn't going to do much to set up the pass, admittedly.)
I also liked this article which determined expected team wins ( by the final vegas line:
http://community.advancednflstats.com/2011/01/clutch-playoff-teams.html
Neil,
Two of the problems that Peyton Manning has had to face in the playoffs is the Colts don't get as many drives as other teams and their starting field position has been terrible in almost all of their losses. Take your Jets example - The Colts scored 16 points but did so on only 8 possessions for 2 pts per drive. For the season the Jets defense averaged facing 12.1 drives per game for a 1.53. Clearly the Colts offense outperformed that ration when their defense was able to get off the field.
Additionally, during this game the Colts average starting field position was the 20 yard line. On average the Jets opponents have started on the 27.5 yard line for the season. Over 8 drives thats about 60 yards of additional field the Colts were forced to cover that other offenses didn't have to cover. Which equates out to about 5 pts of field position.
So I would make the following adjustments - Starting with your 22.5 minus 5 pts of field position minus 4 drives at 1.5 pts per drive that they didn't get the opportunity to take = 22.5 - 5 - (4*1.5) = 11.5 expected points. Scoring 16 is really a +5.5 over expectation.
Wow Buzz that's pretty interesting, good job spotting that.
I wish I could account for those, but we don't have field position data or even drive counts in the DB. It might be possible to re-run this using Doug's estimated points per offensive drive metric:
Pts/Drive ~ (7*(rushTD+passTD) + 3*FG) / (rushTD + passTD + turnovers + punts + FGA)
I'll have to look into that.
Plus just in relation to this year, the COlts offense with Austin COllie playing has been much different than the COlts offense without Austin COllie. YOu cannot see that in the average points scored stats, but anyone who watched the COlts the last two months easily would see the offense was far more productive when he was playing. Against this Jets defense, with the limited set of WR options the COlts had, with them dropping back 8 in coverage almost every passing play, and the COlts lack of a running game (ran the ball 27 times, half the time, in this game, which is high for them, 3.4 yards per rush) I am not surprised at the lack of offensive production against the Jets. Its about what I expected.
Prior years, sure, they have underachieved.
I have looked this up too, which just reinforces the above stats : Brady is 5-3 in playoff games where the offense scores 21 points or less. (8/18 games) Manning, Marino, Elway, Montana and Young all have between 7 and 11 playoff games each where that has happened, accounting for between 1/3 to 2/3 of their playoff games individually. None of them has more than 2 playoff wins in those games compared to Brady's 5 wins
Maybe by the spring I can put together a good collection of QB playoff stats for this site for drive stats. All the good stuff like average starting field position, yards/drive, points/drive, 3 and out %, etc.
I think you have to blame Indy's special teams more than anything for their horrible field position they've had the last few years. Remember that incredible punting game Scifres had on them in SD in 2008? I think that game and last year's SB are supposed to be the two worst starting field position games an offense has had in the last decade.
In the 2nd half of SB 44, the Saints only had the ball 3 times and did this:
58 yard TD drive
37 yard FG drive
59 yard TD drive + 2pt conv
6 points/drive, 51.3 yards/drive
In the 2nd half the other night, the Jets had the ball 4 times and did this:
63 yard TD drive
87 yard TD drive
10 yards, punt (extended by a lame running into the punter foul)
40 yard GW FG drive
4.3 points/drive, 50.0 yards/drive
Add the two halves together: 354 yards and 35 points on 7 drives (5.0 points/drive, 50.6 yards/drive)
I'm not sure you can play defense any worse than that. If the Jets had time or the need for a TD at the end, maybe they would have got that too.
The Colts didn't do a bad job on their own 2nd half opportunities in those games. A ridiculous 61.1 yards/drive, 2.29 pts/drive, 1 TD, 3 FGs, a missed FG, Tracy Porter's INT, and Wayne dropping the ball on 4th & goal to end the SB. They didn't get to start any of those 7 drives past their own 30 yard line (something their opponent was able to do 5/7 times).
Scott - That would be about the most awesome thing added to the site since - well probably 4th quarter QB comebacks.
It wouldn't be added to the site, but put up here as an article to read in the downtime of the off-season, and reference when needed.
ALso in the FracG part, I am not sure that is needed. For example, Manning gets a 0.84 score for one get against Denver. They were up by a ton because he throws 5 TDs, so he came up and Sorgi had some mop up plays that didn't matter. This system seems to punish a QB for building a big lead early in a playoff game. He really was responsible for all the scoring in that game, but then he comes out with a big lead and it drags his score down
I am sure that happened to Montana more than once too. I don't think in many playoff games anymore there is split time between two QBs unless one gets injured OR the case of a big lead and they come out, or also a big loss and they get pulled. Not sure dividing up the assessment of who is responsible in that way is the best system
Of course there is the Bills 31 point comeback game with Frank Reich, that is one game with split time in a big game. But then does Reich just get partial credit for that when he scored all the points?
Frank Reich started and went the distance in Buffalo's record-setting comeback win.
I know Steve Young came in for Montana a few times for the 49ers, but I don't think they scored any points that way outside of the 1987 Vikings upset. That's actually a game where Montana would get too much credit here, seeing as he only put 3 of the 49ers' 24 points on the board. The defense scored on an INT and Steve Young put up the rest of their points.
So, how would Ben's offense putting up 31 yesterday effect his numbers here?
The AFC games this week are actually a great example of why number of drives and starting field position are so important, and why it's hard to really analyze all this stuff fairly.
Roethlisberger played very well against a tough defense on a day where his OL was a wreck and he had no help from the running game. Still, I think the Steelers have almost no shot of winning this game without the short fields they got in the 3rd quarter from turnovers. I just can't see the offense putting together long drives for TDs with the way the OL was. 31 points on 12 drives sounds very good, but consider they had 3 straight scoring drives that consisted of a 23 yard TD drive, 25 yard TD drive and 6 yard FG drive. That really helps.
The Patriots should have finished with 11 drives and 14 points, which is flat out poor for an offense that had been so deadly efficient. But because Greene is an idiot that should have went down at the 1, the Patriots got one more drive and scored 21 points on 12 drives, still well below their regular season numbers. They got a FG after starting at the NYJ 43, and their last TD was a 59 yard drive.
The Colts had 16 points last week on 9 drives, and never started anywhere better than their own 26. Is it fair to say they didn't perform better as an offense than the Steelers and Patriots did in their games? I wouldn't say so. They're the only team that didn't turn it over of the three, they didn't have any advantages in field position, and they had 3 fewer drives (arguably 4 if you count the end of the 2nd quarter opportunity they sorta wasted on their own decision).
For a QB, some combination of individual stats (passing + sacks + rushing), offensive point production, and adjusting for opponent, field position and number of drives would be ideal, but I haven't seen anyone come close to being able to put a formula together for all of that. I don't think FO's stats really can measure that.
Re: 17 - Big Ben is now +8.5 PPG relative to average and +5.7 relative to expectations in 10.96 fractional playoff games.
Scott, have you ever considered to throw in some measure to account for bye weeks? I know no one puts up stats during byes but it seems to me if a team/qb does well enough in the regular season to get a free "win" for the playoffs, that should be accounted for somehow.
Yeah I know all the complaints about the regular season not mattering and all that, but the fact is if a team earns a bye then they need one fewer win to win a superbowl.