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ShareThisThe Rivers Index, Playoffs Edition (2001-2010)
Back in November, I developed what I called "The Rivers Index" (so named for Philip Rivers), a metric that measured how many games a QB should have won based on nothing more than his own passing performance. Today, I'm going to apply that same concept to the last 10 years of playoff competition, this time using 10 years of data and adjusting for opposing defenses + weather.
Here's how it worked: For every year from 2001-2010, I gathered team regular-season passing gamelog data and playoff QB gamelog data. I then ran an SRS-style process on each regular season dataset to produce offensive and defensive team Adjusted Yards per Passing Attempt ratings, plus homefield effects on AY/A. I also added Doug's weather effects into the mix, and calculated the AY/A a league-average QB would be expected put up in any given game. I called the difference between that and the team's actual offensive AY/A their "AY/A above average" (AYAAA).
Using all 5100 games from the 2001-2010 period, I ran a logistic regression between team wins (win=1, loss=0) and their AYAAA in the game. The result is an equation that predicts how often a team "should" win, given it's QB play relative to the league average (adjusted for location, opponent, & weather):
xWin% ~ =1/(1+EXP(-0.3424889*AYAAA))
I then isolated every QB who was their team's leading pass-attempter in a playoff game since 2001, and plugged their numbers into the equation to determine their expected winning % in each game.
Let's take Jay Cutler vs. Seattle last weekend as an example: Cutler was 15-28 for 274 yards, 2 TD, and 0 INT, which works out to an AY/A of 11.21. The 2010 NFL average was 6.54 AY/A, the homefield effect for both the offense & defense combined was 0.31, Seattle's pass defense was 1.29 AY/A worse than average, and the game was played in "moderately cold" Chicago in January, yielding a weather adjustment of -0.3. Here's the league-average expectation in Cutler's game:
LgAvg = 6.54 + 0.5*0.31 +1.29 - 0.3 = 7.69
Cutler's 11.21 was 3.52 better than the league-average expectation, so we plug 3.52 into the logistic equation and estimate that a QB with Cutler's performance should win 77% of the time.
After doing this for every QB who was his team's leading passer in a playoff game from 2001-2010, here are the results, sorted by games:
(Note: only results from team-leading games are included.)
| Player | Gms | Won | Lost | WPct | xWins | xLosses | xWin% | PPG | Cmp | Att | Yds | TD | Int | AY/A | LgAvg | AYAAA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 18 | 13 | 5 | 0.722 | 10.42 | 7.58 | 0.579 | 23.9 | 412 | 664 | 4292 | 30 | 16 | 6.28 | 5.50 | 0.78 |
| Peyton Manning | 17 | 9 | 8 | 0.529 | 10.39 | 6.61 | 0.611 | 23.1 | 417 | 644 | 4968 | 28 | 19 | 7.26 | 5.50 | 1.76 |
| Donovan McNabb | 14 | 8 | 6 | 0.571 | 7.77 | 6.23 | 0.555 | 21.7 | 297 | 503 | 3410 | 21 | 15 | 6.27 | 5.65 | 0.62 |
| Matt Hasselbeck | 11 | 5 | 6 | 0.455 | 6.30 | 4.70 | 0.573 | 25.1 | 237 | 406 | 2741 | 18 | 9 | 6.64 | 5.86 | 0.78 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 11 | 9 | 2 | 0.818 | 6.54 | 4.46 | 0.595 | 27.2 | 191 | 310 | 2465 | 17 | 12 | 7.31 | 5.81 | 1.50 |
| Brett Favre | 10 | 4 | 6 | 0.400 | 5.45 | 4.55 | 0.545 | 24.0 | 211 | 342 | 2465 | 19 | 18 | 5.95 | 5.86 | 0.09 |
| Kurt Warner | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0.667 | 6.26 | 2.74 | 0.696 | 30.4 | 206 | 301 | 2524 | 20 | 7 | 8.67 | 5.67 | 3.00 |
| Jake Delhomme | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0.625 | 5.20 | 2.80 | 0.650 | 22.5 | 130 | 226 | 1847 | 12 | 10 | 7.24 | 5.42 | 1.83 |
| Drew Brees | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0.571 | 4.31 | 2.69 | 0.615 | 28.7 | 189 | 285 | 2052 | 15 | 2 | 7.94 | 6.61 | 1.33 |
| Joe Flacco | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0.571 | 2.95 | 4.05 | 0.422 | 20.6 | 98 | 184 | 1050 | 4 | 7 | 4.43 | 5.22 | -0.79 |
| Eli Manning | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0.571 | 3.73 | 3.27 | 0.533 | 16.6 | 113 | 193 | 1297 | 8 | 7 | 5.92 | 5.50 | 0.42 |
| Philip Rivers | 7 | 3 | 4 | 0.429 | 4.58 | 2.42 | 0.654 | 19.9 | 134 | 229 | 1820 | 8 | 9 | 6.88 | 4.76 | 2.12 |
| Jeff Garcia | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0.333 | 3.06 | 2.94 | 0.509 | 20.2 | 126 | 217 | 1357 | 7 | 7 | 5.45 | 5.47 | -0.02 |
| Chad Pennington | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0.333 | 3.35 | 2.65 | 0.558 | 18.8 | 132 | 216 | 1418 | 8 | 8 | 5.64 | 5.17 | 0.47 |
| Rich Gannon | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0.600 | 3.29 | 1.71 | 0.657 | 28.6 | 113 | 175 | 1294 | 10 | 6 | 6.99 | 5.05 | 1.94 |
| Steve McNair | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0.400 | 2.57 | 2.43 | 0.514 | 19.6 | 98 | 158 | 1074 | 5 | 8 | 5.15 | 4.82 | 0.33 |
| Mark Sanchez | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0.800 | 3.09 | 1.91 | 0.618 | 20.6 | 75 | 124 | 922 | 7 | 3 | 7.48 | 5.91 | 1.57 |
| Michael Vick | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0.400 | 2.60 | 2.40 | 0.521 | 21.2 | 78 | 139 | 901 | 4 | 4 | 5.76 | 5.26 | 0.50 |
| Rex Grossman | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0.500 | 1.68 | 2.32 | 0.421 | 26.0 | 69 | 133 | 783 | 4 | 4 | 5.14 | 6.06 | -0.92 |
| Brad Johnson | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0.750 | 1.95 | 2.05 | 0.488 | 28.8 | 75 | 134 | 872 | 5 | 7 | 4.90 | 5.22 | -0.32 |
| Jake Plummer | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0.250 | 1.74 | 2.26 | 0.436 | 19.5 | 80 | 120 | 885 | 5 | 6 | 5.96 | 6.66 | -0.70 |
| Tony Romo | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0.250 | 1.79 | 2.21 | 0.448 | 18.5 | 80 | 135 | 832 | 4 | 2 | 6.09 | 6.81 | -0.72 |
| Marc Bulger | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0.333 | 1.77 | 1.23 | 0.589 | 22.3 | 68 | 113 | 944 | 4 | 5 | 7.07 | 6.26 | 0.81 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0.667 | 2.47 | 0.53 | 0.822 | 38.0 | 77 | 105 | 969 | 10 | 1 | 10.70 | 6.02 | 4.68 |
| Mark Brunell | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.70 | 1.30 | 0.349 | 13.5 | 29 | 52 | 283 | 1 | 1 | 4.96 | 5.99 | -1.03 |
| Kerry Collins | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 1.30 | 0.70 | 0.649 | 24.0 | 55 | 85 | 623 | 4 | 2 | 7.21 | 5.34 | 1.87 |
| Daunte Culpepper | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0.500 | 1.38 | 0.62 | 0.691 | 22.5 | 43 | 75 | 600 | 5 | 2 | 8.13 | 5.91 | 2.22 |
| David Garrard | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0.500 | 1.09 | 0.91 | 0.543 | 25.5 | 31 | 54 | 418 | 3 | 3 | 6.35 | 5.17 | 1.18 |
| Elvis Grbac | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.89 | 1.11 | 0.444 | 15.0 | 30 | 55 | 286 | 1 | 3 | 3.11 | 5.60 | -2.49 |
| Trent Green | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.85 | 1.15 | 0.424 | 19.5 | 32 | 54 | 319 | 2 | 2 | 4.98 | 5.80 | -0.82 |
| Tommy Maddox | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0.500 | 1.15 | 0.85 | 0.573 | 33.5 | 51 | 89 | 633 | 5 | 3 | 6.72 | 5.82 | 0.90 |
| Matt Ryan | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.55 | 1.45 | 0.277 | 22.5 | 46 | 69 | 385 | 3 | 4 | 3.84 | 6.91 | -3.07 |
| Kordell Stewart | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.85 | 1.15 | 0.424 | 22.0 | 36 | 64 | 409 | 1 | 4 | 3.89 | 5.39 | -1.50 |
| Drew Bledsoe | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1.000 | 0.51 | 0.49 | 0.509 | 24.0 | 10 | 21 | 102 | 1 | 0 | 5.81 | 5.71 | 0.10 |
| Quincy Carter | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.35 | 0.65 | 0.348 | 10.0 | 21 | 36 | 154 | 0 | 1 | 3.03 | 4.87 | -1.84 |
| Matt Cassel | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.05 | 0.95 | 0.049 | 7.0 | 9 | 18 | 70 | 0 | 3 | -3.61 | 5.03 | -8.64 |
| Todd Collins | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.35 | 0.65 | 0.347 | 14.0 | 29 | 50 | 266 | 2 | 2 | 4.32 | 6.16 | -1.84 |
| Jay Cutler | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1.000 | 0.77 | 0.23 | 0.770 | 35.0 | 15 | 28 | 274 | 2 | 0 | 11.21 | 7.69 | 3.52 |
| Jay Fiedler | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.28 | 0.72 | 0.285 | 3.0 | 15 | 28 | 122 | 0 | 1 | 2.75 | 5.44 | -2.69 |
| Kelly Holcomb | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.86 | 0.14 | 0.855 | 33.0 | 26 | 43 | 429 | 3 | 1 | 10.33 | 5.14 | 5.19 |
| Tarvaris Jackson | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.26 | 0.74 | 0.259 | 14.0 | 15 | 35 | 164 | 0 | 1 | 3.40 | 6.47 | -3.07 |
| Jon Kitna | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.32 | 0.68 | 0.318 | 17.0 | 24 | 40 | 197 | 1 | 2 | 3.18 | 5.40 | -2.22 |
| Byron Leftwich | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.31 | 0.69 | 0.313 | 3.0 | 18 | 31 | 179 | 0 | 1 | 4.32 | 6.61 | -2.29 |
| Shane Matthews | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.09 | 0.91 | 0.095 | 19.0 | 8 | 17 | 66 | 0 | 2 | -1.41 | 5.18 | -6.59 |
| Carson Palmer | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.47 | 0.53 | 0.470 | 14.0 | 18 | 36 | 146 | 1 | 1 | 3.36 | 3.71 | -0.35 |
| Chris Simms | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.27 | 0.73 | 0.272 | 10.0 | 25 | 38 | 198 | 0 | 2 | 2.84 | 5.72 | -2.88 |
| Vinny Testaverde | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.74 | 0.26 | 0.741 | 24.0 | 26 | 40 | 268 | 3 | 0 | 8.20 | 5.13 | 3.07 |
| Anthony Wright | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.33 | 0.67 | 0.330 | 17.0 | 20 | 37 | 214 | 1 | 2 | 3.89 | 5.96 | -2.06 |
| Vince Young | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.39 | 0.61 | 0.390 | 6.0 | 16 | 29 | 138 | 0 | 1 | 3.21 | 4.51 | -1.30 |
The individual games file can be found here.
The Rivers Index is about the biggest differences between deserved W-L and actual W-L, so here are the QBs again, sorted from biggest overperformers to biggest underperformers:
| Player | Gms | Won | xWins | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 18 | 13 | 10.42 | 2.58 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 11 | 9 | 6.54 | 2.46 |
| Brad Johnson | 4 | 3 | 1.95 | 1.05 |
| Joe Flacco | 7 | 4 | 2.95 | 1.05 |
| Mark Sanchez | 5 | 4 | 3.09 | 0.91 |
| Drew Bledsoe | 1 | 1 | 0.51 | 0.49 |
| Rex Grossman | 4 | 2 | 1.68 | 0.32 |
| Mark Brunell | 2 | 1 | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| Eli Manning | 7 | 4 | 3.73 | 0.27 |
| Jay Cutler | 1 | 1 | 0.77 | 0.23 |
| Donovan McNabb | 14 | 8 | 7.77 | 0.23 |
| Kordell Stewart | 2 | 1 | 0.85 | 0.15 |
| Elvis Grbac | 2 | 1 | 0.89 | 0.11 |
| Matt Cassel | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | -0.05 |
| David Garrard | 2 | 1 | 1.09 | -0.09 |
| Shane Matthews | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | -0.09 |
| Tommy Maddox | 2 | 1 | 1.15 | -0.15 |
| Jake Delhomme | 8 | 5 | 5.20 | -0.20 |
| Tarvaris Jackson | 1 | 0 | 0.26 | -0.26 |
| Kurt Warner | 9 | 6 | 6.26 | -0.26 |
| Chris Simms | 1 | 0 | 0.27 | -0.27 |
| Jay Fiedler | 1 | 0 | 0.28 | -0.28 |
| Rich Gannon | 5 | 3 | 3.29 | -0.29 |
| Drew Brees | 7 | 4 | 4.31 | -0.31 |
| Byron Leftwich | 1 | 0 | 0.31 | -0.31 |
| Jon Kitna | 1 | 0 | 0.32 | -0.32 |
| Anthony Wright | 1 | 0 | 0.33 | -0.33 |
| Todd Collins | 1 | 0 | 0.35 | -0.35 |
| Quincy Carter | 1 | 0 | 0.35 | -0.35 |
| Daunte Culpepper | 2 | 1 | 1.38 | -0.38 |
| Vince Young | 1 | 0 | 0.39 | -0.39 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 3 | 2 | 2.47 | -0.47 |
| Carson Palmer | 1 | 0 | 0.47 | -0.47 |
| Matt Ryan | 2 | 0 | 0.55 | -0.55 |
| Steve McNair | 5 | 2 | 2.57 | -0.57 |
| Michael Vick | 5 | 2 | 2.60 | -0.60 |
| Vinny Testaverde | 1 | 0 | 0.74 | -0.74 |
| Jake Plummer | 4 | 1 | 1.74 | -0.74 |
| Marc Bulger | 3 | 1 | 1.77 | -0.77 |
| Tony Romo | 4 | 1 | 1.79 | -0.79 |
| Trent Green | 2 | 0 | 0.85 | -0.85 |
| Kelly Holcomb | 1 | 0 | 0.86 | -0.86 |
| Jeff Garcia | 6 | 2 | 3.06 | -1.06 |
| Kerry Collins | 2 | 0 | 1.30 | -1.30 |
| Matt Hasselbeck | 11 | 5 | 6.30 | -1.30 |
| Chad Pennington | 6 | 2 | 3.35 | -1.35 |
| Peyton Manning | 17 | 9 | 10.39 | -1.39 |
| Brett Favre | 10 | 4 | 5.45 | -1.45 |
| Philip Rivers | 7 | 3 | 4.58 | -1.58 |
Unbelievably enough, Philip Rivers is actually dead last here as well, merely reinforcing his status as the metric's namesake. Much like his regular-season frustrations, he was a .429 playoff record despite playing like a .654 quarterback.
At the other end, Tom Brady's recent losses still haven't caused his deserved performance to catch up to his actual W-L. He was obviously due for a correction after winning his first 10 playoff games as a starter (this system considers it 9 straight, since Drew Bledsoe threw more passes in the 2001 AFC title game); during those 9 games, he played like a .625 QB. Since the 2004 Super Bowl, Brady has a .444 record and has played like a .532 QB, so his luck has actually swung the other way in recent seasons.
Meanwhile Ben Roethlisberger, #2 on the list, has a chance to pad his Rivers Index even more this weekend. His opponent, Mark Sanchez, is a budding Rivers Index phenom in his own right. Sanchez sports an .800 record as his team's leading passer in the playoffs, despite playing like a .618 QB. Ironically, in that sense his career arc could very well follow that of a young Brady.
This entry was posted on Friday, January 21st, 2011 at 12:05 pm and is filed under Quarterbacks, Simple Rating System, Statgeekery. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.
At #100
How could I know what THEY were looking at?
Who is THEY, anyway?
Who beat out Marino for 2nd Team All-1980s QB? Then maybe I could guess. Was it Fouts? You tell me, and I'll try to answer.
I've already explained who "they" were. A real mix of knowledgeable NFL types including players and ex-players-some being HOF members. I think Marino was eligible for something like 10 slots altogether on those 5 teams. So even if Fouts was 1 of them, that leaves 9 others that were named instead of Marino. Names like Unitas, Montana, Elway, Favre, Baugh, and Graham. Four of the 10 slots were selected in '94. One of them went to Montana, and how well had he played by '94 compared to Marino ? I would imagine that Dan had better stats by '94, but Joe got the slot.
Bob S.,
The HOF All 1980s 2nd Team QB is Dan Fouts.
This website's blog picked Dan Marino.
Marino's playoff Passer Rating in the 1980s is 80.7...
Fout's playoff Passer Rating is 77.6...
During the 1980s regular season, Marino's rating is 89.3 and Fouts' is 84.4...
In 3 more starts during the Regular Season, Marino won 9 more games, threw 48 more TD passes and 16 fewer INTs.
Both QBs were 3-3 in the postseason in the 80s. Marino took a team to the SB/ Fouts did not. In the 1980s post season, Marino's teams were outrushed by an average of 79 yards per game/ Fouts were outrushed by an average of 14 yards per game.
In the 3 losses for each, Fouts' teams were outrushed by an average of 68 yards per game/ Marino's were outrushed by an average of 132 yards per game.
Marino's teams scored 150 points in 6 games/ Fouts' scored 139.
I have no idea why the HOF picked Fouts over Marino for 2nd Team. Do you?
That's 1 slot out of 10 that Marino misses out on. How about the other 9 ? See my post #102.
I thought Elway got snubbed in that selection for the '80's. But, in the 90's, why would they pick Elway and Favre over Marino ? It was in the '90's that Dan was setting all of those Reg. season Passing Records. Elway and Favre set no records that I'm aware of in the '90's.
Bob S. ,
If people are making Anniversary Teams and put several guys ahead of Dan Marino-------that's OK with me. I'm certain TEAM championships is working against Marino.
It's certainly not because of how Marino played under similar circumstances to his contemporaries, though----because he was as good as anybody, IMO, and I've illustrated why in this thread. I try looking at players under similar circumstances. Otherwise your opinion gets muddied on 'what PLAYER is better' with 'who's TEAM helped more'.
It's clear that you do not care 1 bit for this way of thinking. Let me be clear that I DO. I think it's foolish NOT to.
Now, what are the panels for these anniversary teams saying? Do you KNOW? Did they spell out their criteria? If they simply go with the guy who was part of a championship TEAM, that's their perogative------but I think it's a painfully simplistic and invalid way to measure how good a PLAYER was in football, specifically.
At # 105
Bob, why don't you show us some data for the 90s for Elway and Favre and Marino. I bet Marino's is the least impressive of the 3.
Likewise, Marino was FAR more impressive than Elway in the 1980s.
Show us some data if you think otherwise. Do you know that Elway had 1 more career TD pass through 1992 (I believe) than he did INTs? Look at his numbers in the 80s.
Elway got to 3 SBs in the 1980s------but he was crushed when his supports played like Marino's in the playoffs... so what's the difference?
That's what I am trying to show you. Marino set all kinds of personal records while playing. He put up monster personal numbers in his career, and in spite of that, these ex-players (some of which were HOF members) must have thought that Dan was not able to play good enough to lead his team to enough success when it really counted-in the playoffs. This is the ultimate team game, but it is the QB that drive's the engine for the most part. They must have thought that Dan wasn't driving quite good enough in the playoffs.
Sean, post#107, But at least Elway was able to help lead his team to as many as 3 S.B.'s Marino failed miserably in his attempts to play good enough to help his team get back to a 2nd S.B. As to Marino, Favre, and Elway in the '90's, I've already explained why Marino may have been better in the voters eyes-he set all kinds of personal passing records.
# 108
Bob, you're making a lot of assumptions on how a 3rd party might have arrived at his/ her determination. How about telling us WHY those panels chose as they did? There would be something to discuss, then. All you have is what somebody else's opinion is--------without their reasoning.
The points that Scott or I or anyone else has made are no more or less true based on who we are. Let's focus on the points. And you don't even know what those panelists' points are. You just know that they arrived at the same conclusion as you------and that's really all you care about.
At # 109
Bob, again you are guessing about why voters may have voted on something--------and just making it fit the end that you want: that Dan Marino wasn't a good post season QB.
Why don't you find out why they voted as they did? Their argument for their choices is really only as good as their reason(s). And you don't even know what they are. Yet you're following them around like a puppy.
'Marino failed miserably in his attempts to play good enough to help his team get back to a 2nd Super Bowl'..... relative to WHOM? Elway? John Elway didn't win when his supports disappeared like Marino's. Neither did Montana. Nobody did.
You just do not grasp this concept of 'similar game situations'.
At #109
Bob, are you aware that Marino broke career passing records BY the 1990s------not IN the 1990s? You understand the difference, yes? Marino was in position to break career records in 1995 largely because of his 1980s production, which was superior to his 1990s output. 1990-1995 put him over the top, 1983-1989 got him to the top.
Breaking a career record BY the 1990s doesn't meal Marino is an all-decade player IN the 1990s. He wasn't.
I think it's important to establish this: Marino was NOT good enough to lead his teams to more playoff wins than he did.
Nobody was.
When anybody's team---ANYBODY'S---was giving ip 125 yards rushing in the 1st half and another 90-125 in the 2nd half (or more)-------they LOSTand it was usually UGLY.
I direct you to the data in #15 and #17.... and what Scott presented in #84, #87 and #88.
I don't know where Dan Marino ranks as an all-time great QB. But I am NOT going to downgrade him because he didn't do what the entire NFL hasn't done in at least the last 60 years (and he actually DID win vs Cleveland in 1985)---------especially when his winning, productivity and efficiency was BETTER than most (including Montana, Elway, Brady, Manning, Favre and Young) under similar favorable conditions that most enjoyed much more frequently.
It would be silly to. I am open to all reasons why you would hold someone to a higher standard while at the same time downgrading them, e.g., 'You must over come markedly worse odds----or you are not as good'.
Rubbish.
Sean, I wonder if you are going deep enough in your analysis of each of Marino's PO losses. I wonder how many of Dan's potential scoring drives fizzled out because Dan made the wrong read on a passing play. I wonder how many times he audibled a running play into a pass play that resulted in an incomplete pass. I wonder how many times his team punted in each loss. I wonder if he made the proper adjustments for his blockers on incomplete passing plays. Try to get hold of Ron Jaworsky's coaching tapes so you can examine 5 camera angles of each play to determine a little more detail. There may be more to this than you and I know. Then after you get your results, report them to the NFL office and see if they will alter Marino's Official Career Resume for you. Good Luck.
Bob, you barely got your feet wet on this one, so I wouldn't talk about someone else going deep enough.
You mentioned 23 PPG for one half earlier. Since the merger, teams are 92-8 when scoring at least 21 points in the first half in the playoffs.
http://pfref.com/tiny/mrir1
Some of the wins are among the most classic comebacks ever (Colts in the 06 AFC-C, 49ers/Giants from 2002, Bills over Oilers in 92). Marino actually has one of the 8 losses, the game in San Diego in 1994. Five more of Marino's playoff losses show up on that list. I don't think you'll find any other QB on there with 6 of his playoff starts listed.
You know the fundamental point bob just chooses to ignore? that the playoffs are somehow a better representative of a QBs skill than the regular season. Nothing in statistics shows this to be true in the least. Bob, even if you took an elementary statistics class, you would realize how small samples get skewed by random chance alone. And so, judging a team's quality off of one game is terribly misleading, let alone the qb for the entire team's outcome is even more absurd. Why can't you just get past this media fed concept that the playoffs mean everything and the regular season means nothing? i can name countless qbs and coaches that performed well in some playoff games or even got the sb and then were jettisoned within a few years. Why is that? Don't the teams share your view that the playoffs are the be all and end all of performance?
i'll put it another way to you bob. lets say you have a very good team, a 12-4 team. Based off that record, that team is expected to lose 1 out of every 4 games. It could be the first or last, but somewhere you would expect a loss. Now lets say they are in the playoffs which is means they have to play a minimum of 3 games and a max of 4. Well, what if they lose their first game? then we never get to see them play the next 3 and we bury them instead as a failure.
At #114
Marino has an 'Official Career Resume'? LOL. If he does (btw, is it notarized by Dick Tracy or someone of that ilk?)-------he doesn't need it altered. It's fine just the way it is regarding how good HE was as a player.
I direct you to entries #15, 17, 84, 87, 88, etc. as evidence.
I'd like to know even more and I find it sad and perhaps a bit telling that you would mock someone's desire to be MORE aware/ informed. You don't even wish to know what is readily available. You are settling for ignorance. May YOU have good luck, there.
At #116
Bob chooses to ignore quite a bit. Maybe it's safer that way.
At #116
The irony is that the tougher the competition gets (as is the case with playoffs vs regular season---for the most part), the need for a less flawed TEAM is much more, yet the scrutiny on the QB increases even though his control on the outcome decreases.
Football is not like baseball where you can isolate 1:1 battles in a final boxscore.
It doesn't make sense. And it is a media fed concept. You'd think they'd wise up. You'll get these talking heads and a lot of them are ex-players who might be HOFers who will hammer home that defense and rushing/ balance on offense is needed... and they'll even defend QBs after individual games who got no help----------then they ignore these concepts when asked about 'greatest QBs' all-time. They become sheep who look at SB boxscores and fail to apply the points they usually hammer us with.
It makes no sense.
Great work by the commenters. Sean, I was so inspired by some of your Marino posting that I whipped up a new post for this week. I think you will enjoy it.
At #120
Well, Scott really posted some things that opened my eyes or made my jaw drop. # 75 is so out of whack, IMO, that I almost can't even believe that it's true. It would be cool to see whatever you put together.
Sean, keep an eye on the site this week because I'll be posting a gold mine of playoff data that should put some of the Marino numbers into better context when you see them matched up with about two dozen other QBs from the last 30 years.
Late chime in here. This is a different look at Marino's playoff "failures"
http://awesomeandperfect.blogspot.com/2010/01/cold-hard-bullshit.html
At # 122
Scott, I eagerly await your latest presentations.
I wonder if Bob will still ask you to post 'Chase's Post-season AV' ranking for Marino------now that Chase has informed him that there is no such thing.