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Which Super Bowl Starting QBs Had the Biggest Hot Streaks Going Into the Game?

Posted by Neil Paine on January 25, 2011

While the Conference Championships put a damper on any hot streaks Aaron Rodgers and Ben Roethlisberger may have had going into the Super Bowl, where does their recent play stand relative to all SB signal-callers prior to the game? And does a string of successful games before the Super Bowl actually correlate with playing well on Super Sunday?

To answer these questions, let's bust out the single-game opponent- & era-adjusted QB performance metric I introduced here. To make a long explanation short, eYAR is an estimate of the QB's Yards Above Replacement against an average opponent in the modern era. We can use it to rank games, seasons, careers, etc., and we can also use it to gauge how well a QB was playing in the games leading up to a Super Bowl start.

For instance, here are the hottest QBs over the 2 games prior to the Super Bowl:

Player Year Tm Prev2G Player Year Tm Prev2G
Roger Staubach 1975 DAL 252.8 Donovan McNabb 2004 PHI 88.3
Jim Kelly 1990 BUF 247.0 Joe Namath 1968 NYJ 87.9
Peyton Manning 2009 IND 241.6 Joe Theismann 1982 WAS 86.9
Dan Marino 1984 MIA 211.1 Fran Tarkenton 1973 MIN 85.9
John Elway 1989 DEN 207.5 Vince Ferragamo 1979 RAM 85.9
Joe Montana 1988 SFO 204.6 Terry Bradshaw 1975 PIT 83.8
Joe Montana 1989 SFO 188.9 Mark Rypien 1991 WAS 82.5
Bart Starr 1966 GNB 163.8 Jeff Hostetler 1990 NYG 82.1
John Elway 1987 DEN 162.4 Eli Manning 2007 NYG 81.9
Troy Aikman 1992 DAL 161.9 Fran Tarkenton 1976 MIN 77.2
Bob Griese 1971 MIA 157.8 John Elway 1998 DEN 77.2
Earl Morrall 1968 BAL 154.5 Roger Staubach 1971 DAL 76.9
Troy Aikman 1993 DAL 151.1 Jim Plunkett 1980 OAK 72.3
Kurt Warner 2008 ARI 151.0 Len Dawson 1969 KAN 71.6
Joe Montana 1981 SFO 149.4 Joe Montana 1984 SFO 69.1
Joe Theismann 1983 WAS 148.9 Bob Griese 1973 MIA 67.4
Terry Bradshaw 1978 PIT 148.6 John Elway 1997 DEN 66.3
Aaron Rodgers 2010 GNB 148.3 Phil Simms 1986 NYG 61.1
Matt Hasselbeck 2005 SEA 146.3 Jim Plunkett 1983 RAI 59.9
Troy Aikman 1995 DAL 145.7 Tom Brady 2001 NWE 57.0
Bart Starr 1967 GNB 142.9 John Elway 1986 DEN 54.8
Billy Kilmer 1972 WAS 139.8 Peyton Manning 2006 IND 54.4
Rich Gannon 2002 OAK 136.8 Tony Eason 1985 NWE 52.8
Craig Morton 1977 DEN 136.1 Kerry Collins 2000 NYG 51.6
Terry Bradshaw 1974 PIT 133.0 Brett Favre 1997 GNB 50.5
Ken Stabler 1976 OAK 130.7 Brad Johnson 2002 TAM 49.6
Terry Bradshaw 1979 PIT 129.0 Stan Humphries 1994 SDG 45.5
Jim McMahon 1985 CHI 128.1 Daryle Lamonica 1967 OAK 41.6
Kurt Warner 1999 STL 126.4 Trent Dilfer 2000 BAL 41.5
Ben Roethlisberger 2005 PIT 123.0 Steve McNair 1999 TEN 36.4
Joe Kapp 1969 MIN 120.7 Bob Griese 1972 MIA 35.4
Chris Chandler 1998 ATL 119.7 Fran Tarkenton 1974 MIN 35.3
Len Dawson 1966 KAN 118.2 Rex Grossman 2006 CHI 33.8
Roger Staubach 1977 DAL 108.1 Roger Staubach 1978 DAL 28.3
Johnny Unitas 1970 BAL 107.7 Doug Williams 1987 WAS 11.8
Jim Kelly 1993 BUF 106.9 Ben Roethlisberger 2010 PIT 10.4
Tom Brady 2007 NWE 105.5 Tom Brady 2003 NWE 9.3
Jake Delhomme 2003 CAR 101.3 David Woodley 1982 MIA 6.5
Kurt Warner 2001 STL 100.8 Neil O'Donnell 1995 PIT 0.7
Ben Roethlisberger 2008 PIT 100.4 Jim Kelly 1992 BUF -0.8
Brett Favre 1996 GNB 98.6 Drew Bledsoe 1996 NWE -3.3
Ken Anderson 1981 CIN 98.6 Jim Kelly 1991 BUF -20.8
Drew Brees 2009 NOR 95.4 Boomer Esiason 1988 CIN -40.0
Tom Brady 2004 NWE 95.2 Craig Morton 1970 DAL -53.8
Steve Young 1994 SFO 91.4 Ron Jaworski 1980 PHI -96.4

Prior to Super Bowl X, Staubach ripped the Vikings and Rams for a combined unadjusted 33-55-466-5-1 line (plus 78 rushing yds) that is pretty impressive when seen in the light of the era and opposition. Likewise, Kelly torched Miami and L.A. for 320 YPG in the 1990 playoffs, and Manning was nearly flawless against one of the best pass defenses ever in last year's AFC Championship Game. (All three of those QBs went on to lose the Super Bowl, though.)

Here's the list if we expand it to look at the 4 games leading up to the Super Bowl:

Player Year Tm Prev4G Player Year Tm Prev4G
Dan Marino 1984 MIA 203.5 Tom Brady 2007 NWE 89.6
Jim Kelly 1990 BUF 191.9 Bart Starr 1967 GNB 88.5
Ken Stabler 1976 OAK 165.9 Joe Theismann 1983 WAS 87.8
Peyton Manning 2009 IND 164.6 Drew Brees 2009 NOR 87.6
Roger Staubach 1975 DAL 157.1 Tom Brady 2004 NWE 87.0
Roger Staubach 1977 DAL 152.7 Mark Rypien 1991 WAS 87.0
Terry Bradshaw 1978 PIT 141.0 Jim McMahon 1985 CHI 86.7
Bart Starr 1966 GNB 138.1 Ken Anderson 1981 CIN 86.0
Joe Montana 1988 SFO 137.6 Fran Tarkenton 1973 MIN 85.0
Joe Montana 1989 SFO 132.9 John Elway 1987 DEN 84.6
Troy Aikman 1993 DAL 130.7 Jim Plunkett 1983 RAI 83.7
Daryle Lamonica 1967 OAK 126.7 Brad Johnson 2002 TAM 80.9
John Elway 1989 DEN 120.5 John Elway 1998 DEN 79.6
Roger Staubach 1971 DAL 120.5 Fran Tarkenton 1976 MIN 79.1
Joe Montana 1981 SFO 119.3 Brett Favre 1997 GNB 78.4
Troy Aikman 1992 DAL 117.9 Johnny Unitas 1970 BAL 77.4
Troy Aikman 1995 DAL 116.1 Joe Namath 1968 NYJ 68.9
Chris Chandler 1998 ATL 115.1 Jim Plunkett 1980 OAK 68.2
Earl Morrall 1968 BAL 115.0 Peyton Manning 2006 IND 66.3
Matt Hasselbeck 2005 SEA 114.9 Tony Eason 1985 NWE 65.4
Aaron Rodgers 2010 GNB 112.9 Jim Kelly 1993 BUF 63.0
Fran Tarkenton 1974 MIN 111.8 Jeff Hostetler 1990 NYG 62.4
Eli Manning 2007 NYG 108.2 Tom Brady 2003 NWE 59.7
Stan Humphries 1994 SDG 107.8 Terry Bradshaw 1975 PIT 59.4
David Woodley 1982 MIA 106.6 Len Dawson 1969 KAN 59.2
Terry Bradshaw 1974 PIT 106.6 John Elway 1986 DEN 56.3
Brett Favre 1996 GNB 106.6 Billy Kilmer 1972 WAS 48.5
Terry Bradshaw 1979 PIT 103.2 Vince Ferragamo 1979 RAM 45.8
Kurt Warner 2008 ARI 103.1 Phil Simms 1986 NYG 45.6
Kurt Warner 2001 STL 102.4 Craig Morton 1970 DAL 45.5
Joe Theismann 1982 WAS 102.1 Kerry Collins 2000 NYG 44.8
Bob Griese 1973 MIA 100.6 Jim Kelly 1991 BUF 44.6
Jake Delhomme 2003 CAR 100.2 Bob Griese 1972 MIA 43.1
John Elway 1997 DEN 99.7 Donovan McNabb 2004 PHI 40.4
Kurt Warner 1999 STL 98.4 Joe Kapp 1969 MIN 39.8
Steve Young 1994 SFO 98.0 Doug Williams 1987 WAS 37.7
Len Dawson 1966 KAN 97.7 Tom Brady 2001 NWE 35.2
Ben Roethlisberger 2010 PIT 96.3 Neil O'Donnell 1995 PIT 29.5
Rich Gannon 2002 OAK 94.2 Steve McNair 1999 TEN 24.2
Ben Roethlisberger 2005 PIT 93.2 Ron Jaworski 1980 PHI 21.0
Joe Montana 1984 SFO 93.2 Trent Dilfer 2000 BAL 20.9
Craig Morton 1977 DEN 92.1 Boomer Esiason 1988 CIN 2.9
Roger Staubach 1978 DAL 91.8 Jim Kelly 1992 BUF 2.2
Ben Roethlisberger 2008 PIT 91.2 Drew Bledsoe 1996 NWE -10.7
Bob Griese 1971 MIA 90.8 Rex Grossman 2006 CHI -13.1

Dan Marino was riding a major hot streak going into the 1984 title game, capping off one of the greatest QB seasons ever with 744 yards in his final 2 regular-season games, plus 683 more in the playoffs against Seattle and Pittsburgh.

Here are the starters sorted by the best 6 games leading up to the Super Bowl:

Player Year Tm Prev6G Player Year Tm Prev6G
Dan Marino 1984 MIA 188.9 Donovan McNabb 2004 PHI 86.9
Jim Kelly 1990 BUF 170.9 Rich Gannon 2002 OAK 86.8
Daryle Lamonica 1967 OAK 141.3 Len Dawson 1969 KAN 84.7
Joe Montana 1988 SFO 140.5 Jake Delhomme 2003 CAR 84.3
Roger Staubach 1971 DAL 139.8 Brett Favre 1997 GNB 82.1
Joe Montana 1989 SFO 131.9 Troy Aikman 1995 DAL 80.8
Joe Namath 1968 NYJ 131.5 Billy Kilmer 1972 WAS 80.3
Bart Starr 1967 GNB 129.4 Steve McNair 1999 TEN 77.6
Earl Morrall 1968 BAL 126.5 John Elway 1987 DEN 77.5
Roger Staubach 1975 DAL 126.3 Ken Anderson 1981 CIN 77.4
Peyton Manning 2009 IND 124.3 Phil Simms 1986 NYG 75.6
Len Dawson 1966 KAN 123.1 Kerry Collins 2000 NYG 74.9
Kurt Warner 1999 STL 122.3 Brad Johnson 2002 TAM 73.9
Terry Bradshaw 1979 PIT 122.2 David Woodley 1982 MIA 73.5
Troy Aikman 1993 DAL 120.4 Fran Tarkenton 1976 MIN 70.5
Ken Stabler 1976 OAK 120.2 Tom Brady 2004 NWE 69.4
Matt Hasselbeck 2005 SEA 119.7 Jim Plunkett 1983 RAI 69.4
Troy Aikman 1992 DAL 117.7 Joe Montana 1984 SFO 60.9
Roger Staubach 1977 DAL 115.5 John Elway 1986 DEN 59.6
Aaron Rodgers 2010 GNB 115.4 Jim McMahon 1985 CHI 59.1
Steve Young 1994 SFO 115.2 Jim Kelly 1993 BUF 59.1
Chris Chandler 1998 ATL 114.4 Tom Brady 2003 NWE 58.9
Craig Morton 1977 DEN 114.2 Kurt Warner 2008 ARI 58.5
Kurt Warner 2001 STL 112.6 Craig Morton 1970 DAL 57.7
Bart Starr 1966 GNB 112.5 John Elway 1997 DEN 57.2
Brett Favre 1996 GNB 111.5 Terry Bradshaw 1974 PIT 55.0
Roger Staubach 1978 DAL 109.3 Jim Plunkett 1980 OAK 54.9
Fran Tarkenton 1974 MIN 107.6 Eli Manning 2007 NYG 53.0
Drew Brees 2009 NOR 107.2 Boomer Esiason 1988 CIN 50.8
Tom Brady 2007 NWE 105.5 Tony Eason 1985 NWE 47.2
Ben Roethlisberger 2005 PIT 105.4 Jeff Hostetler 1990 NYG 43.9
Joe Montana 1981 SFO 103.8 Terry Bradshaw 1975 PIT 41.3
Mark Rypien 1991 WAS 102.5 Doug Williams 1987 WAS 38.5
Terry Bradshaw 1978 PIT 101.5 Rex Grossman 2006 CHI 36.9
Stan Humphries 1994 SDG 98.0 Johnny Unitas 1970 BAL 34.8
Ben Roethlisberger 2010 PIT 97.1 Tom Brady 2001 NWE 31.7
Bob Griese 1973 MIA 97.1 Joe Kapp 1969 MIN 28.5
John Elway 1998 DEN 92.8 Bob Griese 1972 MIA 28.4
Joe Theismann 1982 WAS 92.1 Ron Jaworski 1980 PHI 28.0
Joe Theismann 1983 WAS 90.2 Neil O'Donnell 1995 PIT 24.7
John Elway 1989 DEN 90.0 Drew Bledsoe 1996 NWE 12.4
Ben Roethlisberger 2008 PIT 89.9 Vince Ferragamo 1979 RAM 11.0
Peyton Manning 2006 IND 89.9 Jim Kelly 1992 BUF -5.0
Fran Tarkenton 1973 MIN 87.3 Trent Dilfer 2000 BAL -5.5
Bob Griese 1971 MIA 87.2 Jim Kelly 1991 BUF -6.8

Amazing how Jim Kelly enjoyed one of the best hot streaks ever to enter a Super Bowl in 1990, then had maybe the most dismal SB run-up in history the following season (including 2 mediocre playoff games, a weak game vs. the Jets in Week 14, and an awful outing against a bad New England pass D in Week 13).

Here were the hottest 8-game streaks going into the Super Bowl:

Player Year Tm Prev8G Player Year Tm Prev8G
Dan Marino 1984 MIA 160.3 Craig Morton 1977 DEN 87.4
Ken Stabler 1976 OAK 141.9 Terry Bradshaw 1979 PIT 86.8
Joe Montana 1989 SFO 140.9 Joe Theismann 1983 WAS 86.2
Jim Kelly 1990 BUF 135.3 Joe Montana 1984 SFO 86.1
Aaron Rodgers 2010 GNB 133.6 Joe Theismann 1982 WAS 84.4
Steve Young 1994 SFO 130.9 Joe Montana 1981 SFO 83.9
Drew Brees 2009 NOR 130.5 Bob Griese 1973 MIA 83.3
Fran Tarkenton 1976 MIN 129.6 Fran Tarkenton 1974 MIN 80.9
Roger Staubach 1971 DAL 127.9 Ben Roethlisberger 2008 PIT 78.8
Kurt Warner 2001 STL 127.2 Phil Simms 1986 NYG 76.1
Roger Staubach 1975 DAL 126.1 John Elway 1997 DEN 73.3
Earl Morrall 1968 BAL 122.4 Jim Plunkett 1983 RAI 71.2
Fran Tarkenton 1973 MIN 120.9 Jake Delhomme 2003 CAR 67.9
Chris Chandler 1998 ATL 118.9 Len Dawson 1969 KAN 67.5
Bart Starr 1966 GNB 118.6 Tony Eason 1985 NWE 65.9
Bart Starr 1967 GNB 117.7 Steve McNair 1999 TEN 65.4
Joe Montana 1988 SFO 117.2 John Elway 1986 DEN 62.9
Kurt Warner 1999 STL 116.9 Stan Humphries 1994 SDG 62.3
Joe Namath 1968 NYJ 116.9 Tom Brady 2004 NWE 60.3
Ben Roethlisberger 2005 PIT 114.8 Neil O'Donnell 1995 PIT 57.5
Roger Staubach 1978 DAL 111.9 Tom Brady 2001 NWE 56.7
Daryle Lamonica 1967 OAK 111.9 Jim Kelly 1993 BUF 56.0
Len Dawson 1966 KAN 111.7 Boomer Esiason 1988 CIN 55.1
John Elway 1987 DEN 109.6 Craig Morton 1970 DAL 54.1
Peyton Manning 2009 IND 106.6 Tom Brady 2003 NWE 53.0
Donovan McNabb 2004 PHI 105.4 Terry Bradshaw 1975 PIT 52.5
Mark Rypien 1991 WAS 104.0 David Woodley 1982 MIA 51.3
Matt Hasselbeck 2005 SEA 101.7 Terry Bradshaw 1978 PIT 50.5
Tom Brady 2007 NWE 101.1 Kurt Warner 2008 ARI 48.4
Troy Aikman 1993 DAL 97.4 Eli Manning 2007 NYG 47.3
Ken Anderson 1981 CIN 97.0 Jim McMahon 1985 CHI 46.4
Brett Favre 1997 GNB 95.4 Doug Williams 1987 WAS 45.2
Rich Gannon 2002 OAK 95.1 Jim Plunkett 1980 OAK 43.7
Roger Staubach 1977 DAL 94.6 Terry Bradshaw 1974 PIT 42.7
Troy Aikman 1995 DAL 94.3 Johnny Unitas 1970 BAL 39.8
Peyton Manning 2006 IND 93.5 Jeff Hostetler 1990 NYG 36.2
John Elway 1998 DEN 92.8 Bob Griese 1972 MIA 28.9
Ben Roethlisberger 2010 PIT 92.3 Ron Jaworski 1980 PHI 27.7
Bob Griese 1971 MIA 91.0 Drew Bledsoe 1996 NWE 26.3
Brad Johnson 2002 TAM 90.7 Jim Kelly 1991 BUF 21.4
Brett Favre 1996 GNB 90.1 Trent Dilfer 2000 BAL 15.2
John Elway 1989 DEN 89.8 Joe Kapp 1969 MIN 5.8
Kerry Collins 2000 NYG 89.6 Vince Ferragamo 1979 RAM 2.5
Troy Aikman 1992 DAL 88.1 Jim Kelly 1992 BUF 0.3
Billy Kilmer 1972 WAS 87.4 Rex Grossman 2006 CHI -7.5

Ken Stabler's 1976 season is underrated because of the extreme anti-passing conditions under which it was played. If we adjust his stats to the modern era, he averaged the equivalent of 246 YPG with a 21-6 ratio and 9.6 YPA over the 8 games leading up to Super Bowl XI.

Finally, here were the best 10-game stretches by a starter going into the Super Bowl:

Player Year Tm Prev10G Player Year Tm Prev10G
Ken Stabler 1976 OAK 147.7 John Elway 1997 DEN 83.2
Aaron Rodgers 2010 GNB 142.8 Joe Theismann 1982 WAS 82.3
Dan Marino 1984 MIA 142.1 Peyton Manning 2006 IND 82.3
Joe Montana 1989 SFO 139.2 Fran Tarkenton 1974 MIN 78.9
Steve Young 1994 SFO 134.9 Craig Morton 1970 DAL 78.9
Jim Kelly 1990 BUF 133.3 John Elway 1998 DEN 77.9
Kurt Warner 2001 STL 129.1 Joe Theismann 1983 WAS 75.3
Roger Staubach 1975 DAL 121.5 Bob Griese 1973 MIA 73.5
Earl Morrall 1968 BAL 120.3 Tom Brady 2003 NWE 71.7
Tom Brady 2007 NWE 120.3 Tom Brady 2004 NWE 71.2
Mark Rypien 1991 WAS 118.7 Joe Montana 1981 SFO 70.8
Fran Tarkenton 1973 MIN 117.5 Ben Roethlisberger 2008 PIT 70.6
Fran Tarkenton 1976 MIN 116.7 Jake Delhomme 2003 CAR 70.1
Drew Brees 2009 NOR 115.4 Terry Bradshaw 1975 PIT 67.7
Roger Staubach 1971 DAL 115.4 Brad Johnson 2002 TAM 67.3
Chris Chandler 1998 ATL 114.1 Boomer Esiason 1988 CIN 64.7
Rich Gannon 2002 OAK 114.0 Jim Plunkett 1983 RAI 60.8
Len Dawson 1966 KAN 109.2 Len Dawson 1969 KAN 59.1
Bart Starr 1966 GNB 108.7 Jim Kelly 1993 BUF 56.4
Daryle Lamonica 1967 OAK 107.9 Bob Griese 1972 MIA 54.7
Ben Roethlisberger 2010 PIT 107.7 Kurt Warner 2008 ARI 54.6
Ken Anderson 1981 CIN 107.3 Tony Eason 1985 NWE 54.5
Joe Namath 1968 NYJ 106.9 Terry Bradshaw 1978 PIT 54.1
Peyton Manning 2009 IND 106.5 Ron Jaworski 1980 PHI 53.1
Donovan McNabb 2004 PHI 104.9 Steve McNair 1999 TEN 52.1
Joe Montana 1988 SFO 102.8 Phil Simms 1986 NYG 50.2
Roger Staubach 1977 DAL 101.4 Stan Humphries 1994 SDG 49.5
John Elway 1987 DEN 100.2 Neil O'Donnell 1995 PIT 48.9
Kurt Warner 1999 STL 98.1 John Elway 1986 DEN 48.8
Troy Aikman 1993 DAL 94.0 Trent Dilfer 2000 BAL 44.0
Joe Montana 1984 SFO 93.9 Tom Brady 2001 NWE 43.5
Bart Starr 1967 GNB 93.7 Drew Bledsoe 1996 NWE 41.3
Bob Griese 1971 MIA 93.5 Jim Plunkett 1980 OAK 41.2
Terry Bradshaw 1979 PIT 93.3 Johnny Unitas 1970 BAL 39.9
John Elway 1989 DEN 91.7 Jim McMahon 1985 CHI 39.9
Craig Morton 1977 DEN 90.4 David Woodley 1982 MIA 36.7
Ben Roethlisberger 2005 PIT 89.1 Jeff Hostetler 1990 NYG 33.5
Troy Aikman 1992 DAL 88.6 Doug Williams 1987 WAS 32.1
Roger Staubach 1978 DAL 88.3 Terry Bradshaw 1974 PIT 31.6
Brett Favre 1996 GNB 88.2 Eli Manning 2007 NYG 28.1
Brett Favre 1997 GNB 87.8 Jim Kelly 1991 BUF 28.0
Billy Kilmer 1972 WAS 87.6 Joe Kapp 1969 MIN 25.0
Kerry Collins 2000 NYG 86.7 Jim Kelly 1992 BUF 24.4
Matt Hasselbeck 2005 SEA 85.5 Rex Grossman 2006 CHI 5.6
Troy Aikman 1995 DAL 84.8 Vince Ferragamo 1979 RAM 0.5

This time Stabler is #1, but Rodgers is right behind him. These are Rodgers' past 10 games according to eYAR:

Unadjusted Stats
Date W# G# Tm Opp Cmp Att Yds TD Int Rush rYds rTD eYAR
11/7/2010 9 9 GNB DAL 27 34 289 3 0 5 41 0 144.7
11/21/2010 11 10 GNB MIN 22 31 301 4 0 3 21 0 214.4
11/28/2010 12 11 GNB ATL 26 35 344 1 0 12 51 1 188.2
12/5/2010 13 12 GNB SFO 21 30 298 3 0 4 39 0 187.8
12/12/2010 14 13 GNB DET 7 11 46 0 1 2 25 0 -49.6
12/26/2010 16 15 GNB NYG 25 37 404 4 0 2 26 0 290.2
1/2/2011 17 16 GNB CHI 19 28 229 1 1 7 21 0 78.5
1/9/2011 18 17 GNB PHI 18 27 180 3 0 3 4 0 76.7
1/15/2011 19 18 GNB ATL 31 36 366 3 0 2 13 1 253.2
1/23/2011 20 19 GNB CHI 17 30 244 0 2 7 39 1 43.3

And Roethlisberger is a respectable 21st as well, thanks to this slate of games:

Unadjusted Stats
Date W# G# Tm Opp Cmp Att Yds TD Int Rush rYds rTD eYAR
11/14/2010 10 9 PIT NWE 30 49 387 3 1 1 12 0 127.6
11/21/2010 11 10 PIT OAK 18 29 275 3 0 3 55 1 211.3
11/28/2010 12 11 PIT BUF 20 33 246 0 0 1 18 0 102.0
12/5/2010 13 12 PIT BAL 22 38 253 1 1 1 -1 0 53.5
12/12/2010 14 13 PIT CIN 21 33 258 0 0 3 23 0 99.3
12/19/2010 15 14 PIT NYJ 23 44 264 1 0 2 25 0 97.8
12/23/2010 16 15 PIT CAR 22 32 320 1 0 7 2 1 175.1
1/2/2011 17 16 PIT CLE 15 22 280 2 0 4 24 0 189.4
1/15/2011 19 17 PIT BAL 19 32 226 2 0 6 11 0 94.4
1/23/2011 20 18 PIT NYJ 10 19 133 0 2 11 21 1 -73.7

Of course, the big question is whether a pre-Super Bowl hot streak is predictive of performance in the big game itself. Here's how eYAR/game in each pre-SB segment correlated to eYAR in the Super Bowl:

Previous 2 games: 0.210
Previous 4 games: 0.280
Previous 6 games: 0.216
Previous 8 games: 0.148
Previous 10 games: 0.142

In other words, based on the (admittedly microscopic) sample of Super Bowl starting QBs, there's very little predictive value in a QB's pre-Super Bowl production. Aaron Rodgers may be playing better than Ben Roethlisberger at the moment, but that doesn't necessarily mean he'll be better in two Sundays.

This entry was posted on Tuesday, January 25th, 2011 at 12:17 pm and is filed under Best/Worst Ever, Quarterbacks, Statgeekery. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.