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2011 Hall of Fame Polls: Curtis Martin
I won't pretend to be objective here: Curtis Martin is my favorite player of all-time. To maintain credibility as a football writer, one must be objective. Still, I feel comfortable avoiding such responsibility this time as long as I announce it. I've sponsored his P-F-R page since we rolled out the sponsorship option several years ago, and have no plans of ending my sponsorship. The quote I use to sponsor him was uttered by Martin late in the 2005 season, when he finally had to shut it down for good:
But early last week, the pain prompted a visit to the coach's office.
''Herm said: 'Curtis, just for us to be having this conversation, it must be a very bad situation. There is no way you'd be sitting in Herman Edwards's office if this wasn't drastic,' '' Martin said Sunday afternoon. ''It was. Yesterday, I felt like there was probably no way we're going to be able to do it. We got up this morning and said no.
''If the Raiders had said, 'Curtis, we're not going to tackle you' and gave me the ball on the 1-yard line and let me run 99 yards, I don't even think I'd have been able to get it.''
In each off-season, Martin submits himself to savage workouts, to prepare his body for the inevitable punishment. Martin once played through a season with two severely sprained ankles. He played through another even though a ligament was tearing away from the bone in his buttocks. He played two consecutive seasons with torn knee ligaments that did not slow him.
I don't know if I've ever seen a tougher Jet, or a player who was more dedicated to his team than Martin. Even if it meant being the anti-Favre, by helping a younger player who many fans (and perhaps members of the organization) thought should steal Martin's job:
During their four years together on the Jets, Martin, an only child, treated [LaMont] Jordan as the younger brother he never had. He gently steered Jordan toward being a better football player and person, Jordan said.
"I remember situations where I was about to make the wrong decision, and I'd call Curt," he said.
"With Curt," he added, "it was never a thing like this young guy is trying to take my spot. He's a great guy. I'd take a bullet for him. That's the amount of respect I have for him."
Jordan chafed at being Martin's understudy, but he said he never resented Martin. "I really appreciate what Curt has done for me," he said.
As a fan, it's easy to admire and respect Martin because of his work ethic and his personality. You'd be hard pressed to find anyone with a bad word to say about Martin, who managed to somehow fly under the radar in the media capital of the world. But it's Martin's on-field production that alone must merit his induction. And I certainly believe, biased as I may be, that he's done enough to become a Hall of Famer.
I don't put much weight in career counting stats, so I won't use Martin's spot as the 4th-leading rusher in league history as reason for his induction. I think Jerome Bettis, 5th all-time, has a borderline case at best, much like John Riggins (HOFer, 4th place as of 1985) or Don Perkins (non-HOFer, 5th place as of 1971)).
There's no doubt what makes Martin unique: his durability. He played in 168 regular season games in his career. In his first 84 games, he rushed for 7,194 yards and 50 touchdowns. In his last 84 games, he rushed for 6,907 yards and 50 touchdowns. He accumulated an incredible workload but didn't wear down for over a decade. He's one of just 14 running backs with 7,500 rushing yards in his first six seasons. Then, from season seven to season eleven, he was one of five guys with 6,000 rushing yards.
He had four truly fantastic seasons, where he ranked in three in rushing yards and top five in yards from scrimmage -- 1995, 1999, 2001 and 2004. In between, from '96 to '98, he ranked in the top ten in both rushing yards and yards from scrimmage. In 1998 he helped lead the team to within a game of the Super Bowl. In 2000, playing for a Jets team that led the league in pass attempts, Martin's rushing totals were down but he still finished in the top 10 in yards from scrimmage. What about 2002 and 2003?
In 2002, Martin severely twisted his ankle in the opening game, then injured the other ankle in week seven.
Doctors told him he should have missed 7 to 10 weeks.
''My ankles were the size of your head,'' he said. ''It was the most pain I've been in. I had to dig deeper than I ever had to just to play.''
Still, Martin endured, and put together four 100-yard games in the second half of the season, guiding the Jets to the playoffs. In '03 he still rushed for over 1,300 yards, including a memorable performance against the Steelers. Playing in the snow in mid-December, neither team had much of an offense that day. The Jets won the game, 6-0, with Martin's 174 rushing yards on 30 carries being the only sign of offense from either team that day.
The Best: At least in one regard
There are 69 players in league history with 1500 carries. Martin has by far the lowest fumble rate of the group. Martin fumbled on just 0.82% of carries, with Priest Holmes (0.90%) being the only player within shouting distance.
| Player | Rsh | Fum | Rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| Curtis Martin | 3518 | 29 | 0.82% |
| Priest Holmes | 1780 | 16 | 0.90% |
| LaDainian Tomlinson | 3099 | 30 | 0.97% |
| Warrick Dunn | 2669 | 26 | 0.97% |
| Rodney Hampton | 1824 | 18 | 0.99% |
| Rudi Johnson | 1517 | 15 | 0.99% |
| Fred Taylor | 2534 | 27 | 1.07% |
| Thomas Jones | 2525 | 27 | 1.07% |
| Corey Dillon | 2618 | 28 | 1.07% |
| Larry Csonka* | 1891 | 21 | 1.11% |
| Steven Jackson | 1878 | 21 | 1.12% |
| Clinton Portis | 2230 | 26 | 1.17% |
| Jerome Bettis | 3479 | 41 | 1.18% |
| Don Perkins | 1500 | 18 | 1.20% |
| Terrell Davis | 1655 | 20 | 1.21% |
| Willis McGahee | 1541 | 19 | 1.23% |
| Charlie Garner | 1537 | 19 | 1.24% |
| Marshall Faulk | 2836 | 36 | 1.27% |
| Stephen Davis | 1945 | 25 | 1.29% |
| Eddie George | 2865 | 37 | 1.29% |
| Barry Sanders* | 3062 | 41 | 1.34% |
| Emmitt Smith* | 4409 | 61 | 1.38% |
| Antowain Smith | 1784 | 25 | 1.40% |
| Shaun Alexander | 2187 | 31 | 1.42% |
| Edgerrin James | 3028 | 44 | 1.45% |
| Earnest Byner | 2095 | 31 | 1.48% |
| Mark van Eeghen | 1652 | 25 | 1.51% |
| Garrison Hearst | 1831 | 28 | 1.53% |
| Jamal Lewis | 2542 | 39 | 1.53% |
| Ricky Watters | 2622 | 43 | 1.64% |
| Lydell Mitchell | 1675 | 29 | 1.73% |
| Thurman Thomas* | 2877 | 50 | 1.74% |
| Jim Taylor* | 1941 | 34 | 1.75% |
| Ahman Green | 2056 | 37 | 1.80% |
| Chris Warren | 1791 | 33 | 1.84% |
| Terry Allen | 2152 | 41 | 1.91% |
| Gerald Riggs | 1989 | 38 | 1.91% |
| Floyd Little* | 1641 | 32 | 1.95% |
| Earl Campbell* | 2187 | 43 | 1.97% |
| John Riggins* | 2916 | 58 | 1.99% |
| Mike Pruitt | 1844 | 37 | 2.01% |
| Leroy Kelly* | 1727 | 35 | 2.03% |
| Neal Anderson | 1515 | 31 | 2.05% |
| Herschel Walker | 1954 | 41 | 2.10% |
| Roger Craig | 1991 | 42 | 2.11% |
| Marcus Allen* | 3022 | 65 | 2.15% |
| Ricky Williams | 2323 | 50 | 2.15% |
| Curt Warner | 1698 | 37 | 2.18% |
| Ottis Anderson | 2562 | 56 | 2.19% |
| Walter Payton* | 3838 | 86 | 2.24% |
| Tiki Barber | 2217 | 53 | 2.39% |
| Jim Brown* | 2359 | 57 | 2.42% |
| Freeman McNeil | 1798 | 45 | 2.50% |
| Ken Willard | 1622 | 41 | 2.53% |
| O.J. Simpson* | 2404 | 62 | 2.58% |
| Eric Dickerson* | 2996 | 78 | 2.60% |
| Larry Brown | 1530 | 40 | 2.61% |
| George Rogers | 1692 | 45 | 2.66% |
| Lawrence McCutcheon | 1521 | 41 | 2.70% |
| Wilbert Montgomery | 1540 | 42 | 2.73% |
| James Wilder | 1586 | 44 | 2.77% |
| James Brooks | 1685 | 51 | 3.03% |
| Franco Harris* | 2949 | 90 | 3.05% |
| John Henry Johnson* | 1571 | 48 | 3.06% |
| Tony Dorsett* | 2936 | 90 | 3.07% |
| Chuck Foreman | 1556 | 52 | 3.34% |
| Bill Brown | 1649 | 56 | 3.40% |
| Joe Perry* | 1929 | 66 | 3.42% |
| Chuck Muncie | 1561 | 57 | 3.65% |
The Bad
Despite the above, my two most vivid memories of Martin are of Super Bowl dream-killing fumbles.
- In the 1998 AFC Championship Game, the Jets led the Broncos 10-0 in the 3rd quarter before (from a Jets' fan's perspective) everything fell apart. But the lead could have been even greater: with 8 minutes to go in the first quarter, the Jets had already missed one field goal and were driving towards their first score. Keith Byars took a pass to the Denver 43 for a first down. But on the next play, Curtis Martin was hit hard by Alfred Williams, and the ball came loose. Tyrone Braxton recovered it, and the Broncos changed field position and avoided falling into a hole. For the Jets, it was the first of four lost fumbles on the day.
- The 1998 Jets were led by Vinny Testaverde, who finally fulfilled his potential playing under a good coach and with talented teammates. As a first-year starter in New York, Testaverde went 12-1 in the regular season and ranked second in the league in ANY/A. The only thing that stood between the Jets and the Super Bowl was John Elway and the Broncos. Once Elway retired following the '98 season, New York stood as prohibitive favorites to represent the conference in the next Super Bowl. They stood as 5-1 odds to win the Super Bowl just before week one. Then, in the opening game against New England, lightning struck twice. In the second quarter, Martin ran 19 yards down to the Patriots' 18-yard line. On the next play, he went off left tackle, but was hit by RDE Willie McGinest. Martin recovered his own fumble, but the damage was already done. Testaverde, following the handoff, began drifting a couple of yards behind the play. When he saw the ball pop out, he lunged forward to recover the football. The quick change of direction led to a season-ending achilles year, and the Jets' Super Bowl dreams were dashed.
Curtis Martin fumbles, coming in consecutive games, would have been enough to drive just about any fanbase off a cliff. But Jets fans have always appreciated Martin, and never came calling for his head. He rewarded them with nearly a decade of great play.
The Case Against
So why shouldn't Martin be in the Hall of Fame? Let's run through the usual reasons proffered as to why a player might just miss out on induction:
- He never won a Super Bowl: By far the biggest reason keeping borderline players out of the HOF is the lack of ultimate team success. But nowhere is such a requirement waived more frequently than at the running back position. Jim Brown was an obvious Hall of Famer long before he finally answered critics by winning a championship in his second to last season. Ditto Walter Payton in his third to last year. Barry Sanders and O.J. Simpson never won a Super Bowl and that didn't stop them from becoming first ballot entrants; the same goes for LaDainian Tomlinson (assuming he doesn't win one) five years after he retires. Martin appeared in a Super Bowl, but this would be a non-issue for him either way. It can help in certain cases, especially when the running back deliveries an MVP-type performance (think Larry Csonka, John Riggins and Marcus Allen), but it's far from a requirement like it is at the quarterback position. He may end up suffering the same fate as Thurman Thomas, and be forced to settle for being a second ballot inductee.
- The Terrell Davis arguments: Perhaps the most valuable running back to be snubbed by the Hall, Davis seems unlikely to enter Canton anytime soon. There are two reasons for that: a short career and questions about how much of his production was due to his supporting staff (including coaching). I'm in the Pro-Davis camp, but neither of these arguments surface with Martin. Edgerrin James, minus some lackluster years later in his career, seems likely to miss out due to the Davis arguments.
- The Ricky Watters/Roger Craig arguments: Watters and Craig were fantastic all-around players, but like Tiki Barber may soon find out, the Hall really likes running backs who are runners. Being an all-around talent is always a positive, but Watters (9th all-time in YFS upon retirement) and Craig (12th in YFS upon retirement have been judged more on their rushing prowess than all-around game. Martin was a capable receiver, and will get bonus points for his receiving ability relative to Jerome Bettis. But with Martin, there was never any question that his value first and foremost came as a runner.
- The Compiler: When paired without any bling, the Compiler argument can be a death knell. And while Martin surely resides more on the "compiler" side of the continuum than the "single-season dominance" end, Martin led the league in rushing yards once, ranked second on two occasions and third on another.
The only blemish on Martin's resume? A yards-per-carry average that looks more pedestrian than exemplary. And there's no denying that Martin wasn't a big play back. But YPC is heavily influenced by big runs, which aren't as valuable as people like to think. Unlike with yards per attempt, yards per rush isn't nearly as successful as identifying the top players. Carries themselves are indicators of quality in a way that pass attempts never could be. A running back with a less-than-stellar YPC average may keep receiving carries because he's a dependable runner, unlikely to fumble, and good at gaining key yards. Of course, a running back with an unimpressive YPC average may just be a bad running back. How do you tell the difference?
If a running back keeps getting his number called, game after game, year after year, he's probably pretty good. Martin, Emmitt Smith and Walter Payton are the only three running backs to record 100 20-carry games. All three are the only with 150 games with fifteen carries or more. He's 7th all-time on the list of players with 25+ carry games. Of the top 12 on that list, all are (or will be) in the HOF or had their careers ruined by injuries and/or overuse (Eddie George, Edgerrin James). That Martin was able to sustain such abuse, game after game, year after year, should be viewed as a badge of honor, not a reason to call him a compiler. And as Doug hinted in two years ago, Martin's incredibly-low fumble rate may well be one of the reasons he didn't have as many big gains over the years. His focus on ball security may have kept his YPC down while improving his team's chances to win.
Martin's best statistical season came in 2004, when the Jets offense under Herm Edwards looked a lot like the Jets offense under Rex Ryan. Playing in a conservative offense and behind a dominant offensive line (Jason Fabini, Pete Kendall, Kevin Mawae, Brandon Moore and Kareem McKenzie formed perhaps the league's best line), Martin rushed for 1,697 yards. But for me, Martin's best season came in 1999, when he was in the prime of his career and playing before all the injuries set in (that he played through, of course).
After the fumble that for all intents and purposes, ended the Jets season in the second quarter, New York turned to Rick Mirer in week two. What's that? You forgot about Mirer's stint with the Jets? How could you. Mirer finished the season 38th out of the 40 passers with 175+ attempts in ANY/A. He was so awful that he was benched for Ray Lucas, an undrafted special teams ace out of Rutgers, who was injured in his first start. Two more starts went Mirer's way, before a healthy Lucas finished out the string.
The 1999 Jets weren't very good; they fell down 17-0 and 34-7 to the rival Giants in one game, and Martin ended that day with six carries for four yards. Against Jacksonville and Buffalo, Mirer completed fewer than half his passes, threw three interceptions, and averaged 4.3 yards per attempt while the Jets were held to three field goals.
Through it all, Martin persevered. He was the center of the offense: for the second of three times in his career, he accumulated 412 touches. He ranked second in the league in carries and rushing yards, and carried a one-dimensional offense to respectability. There was no championship in sight, and Martin wasn't the sort of player who could avoid hits by making defenders miss. He wouldn't run out of bounds to avoid hits, either. Rather it was play after play of Martin churning out yards, extending drives, and keeping the team respectable. It was the sort of yeoman's work that cause Ricky Williams to retire, ended the career of James Wilder, and zapped the last legs of Eddie George and Earl Campbell. Further, Martin did it despite not having the body of a Christian Okoye or Jerome Bettis, or even an Eddie George, Jamal Anderson or Jamal Lewis.
At 5'10, 210 pounds, Martin wasn't one of the fastest backs in the league, nor was he ever one of the biggest. But his incredible vision, determination and perseverance made him my favorite Jet of all-time. The relationship between Bill Parcells and Martin is well-documented. Parcells will never say anything but good words about Martin, who battled with him for two different franchises. Martin said that Parcells will present him if he gets inducted this year. Parcells didn't mince words when discussing Martin's candidacy this week: "Running back is a production position, and his production is indisputable. He should be going in on roller skates."
I hope the Hall of Fame voters agree.
This entry was posted on Friday, February 4th, 2011 at 11:35 am and is filed under Best/Worst Ever, Great Historical Players, History, HOF, Player articles. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.

Didn't Marshall Faulk win a superbowl with the Rams?
1- Yes, in 99 vs the Titans. He had 10 carries for 17 yards rushing, so his performance might be easy to forget. (although he did have 90-some yards receiving)
Uh, yea. No clue why I put Faulk in there. Thanks for the catch, Garrett. I updated the post.
My favorite Curtis Martin story: I work about ten minutes from Hofstra University, where the Jets used to practice until they moved to Jersey full time a couple of years ago. A few years ago, a woman I work with, age 55-60 or so, was on her way home from work one night when her car broke down. Stranded on the side of the road, waiting for help to arrive, a shiny, late model automobile pulled up behind hers on the side of the road. A young man got out of the car and asked the woman if she needed help, and she said she could use a lift home. On the way, the young man peppered her with questions; where she worked, if she have any children or grandchildren, etc. Finally, she asked him what he did for a living, to which he replied, "Oh I play for the Jets." The woman knew nothing about football, but said that her husband was a huge Jet fan, and would get a big kick out of the fact that she had gotten a ride home from a Jet. Needless to say, the guy did a spit take when he found out that his wife had gotten a ride home from Curtis Martin, future Hall of Fame running back for the New York Jets.
Yes, I'm well aware that giving a woman a ride home from work does not a Hall of Famer make, and the legions of Jet haters out there will likely respond to this post in a typically vitriolic manner, but this guy is a no-doubt Hall of Famer, as well as a class act. Whether it's this year or next, I will raise a glass (or several) in his honor once he dons the gold blazer. Great post, Chase!
Curtis Martin is a very good player but he is more of a compiler. He will be seen as overrated because he had some of his best years thanks to a good offensive line. He, like Jerome Bettis, had a few seasons in which they were elite and then, because of injuries and a subpar offense tailed off. I think Martin will be waiting awhile!
As a diehard Jet hater, I'm outraged that Martin would DARE have the unmitigated gall to...give a woman a ride home from work!!! And after her vehicle had broken down no less!!! Who does he think he is??? j/k
Put me down as one who always thought Martin should be in, but not right now. Not before people like Hanburger, who have been waiting for decades. But next year? Sure.
Martin is #4 all time in yardage ... has more yards than more than 20 other HoF running backs (Dickerson, Dorsett, Brown, Campbell, OJ, etc.) ... is one of only two players with ten consecutive 1,000 yards seasons ... was the oldest player ever to lead the league in rushing, 1,697 yards at age 31. (Plus he had a perfect passer rating of 158.3!)
How does that record *not* get a player into the HoF? I'd think one would have to start searching for "intangibles" to hold against him, but he's also one of the best players ever intangible-wise.
The "compiler" argument against him I just don't get. I'd think it would be *good* to "compile" the 4th-most yards all-time and ten consecutive 1,000+-yd seasons.
Hank Aaron was the great "compiler" of baseball. He never had a single season that even near matched the best of his contemporaries Mantle, Mays, or even Roger Maris -- but he compiled one very good season after another forever, to surpass their totals. People consider him an all-time great for it. Martin is the near Aaron of NFL running backs, having surpassed the totals of a list of HoF running backs that would run down your arm -- yet people hold it against him. Go figure.
the Hall really likes running backs who are runners...
This is it, I think. The football popularity contest goes to flashy, dramatic runners, not to quiet, team-first players who merely complile great achievements. Gale Sayers didn't have a third of the career of Martin but there's no shortage of people who think Sayers belongs in and Martin not because "Sayers had those amazing moves!". If you were building a franchise, whose career would you want for your team? "Martin's, of course". But who belongs in the Hall? "Gale."
Martin didn't have break-away speed. That's what's going to do him in, what makes him a mere compiler.
Then there is Floyd Little. Nothing against Floyd, but how he can belong in Canton and Curtis not is beyond me.
re # 6 I agree with you, by the way. As much as I love the guy, I think he is a notch (a tiny notch, but nonetheless) below Faulk. One way to recognize that would be to put Faulk in on the first ballot, and make Curtis wait a year. No shame in that, of course, as many great, great players have had to wait a little. My votes for this year would go to Faulk, Deion, Roaf, Dawson, and Hanburger...but if Curtis isn't in by 2013, at the latest, somebody's "got some 'splaining to do!"
By the way, I've never quite understood the concept that longevity is a knock on a guy. So a guy "compiles" his stats over a period of time; are we supposed to view this as a negative? When NFL GMs are looking for guys to build a team around, isn't durability a factor? I can kind of understand holding this against a guy in a sport like baseball, which isn't nearly as taxing physically, but in football, I think that argument goes out the window. On the one hand, the whole world is killing Jay Cutler, because he supposedly didn't, or couldn't, answer the bell. Are we supposed to penalize guys like Curtis Martin, of even Jerome Bettis, for that matter, because they did, over and over? Sorry, but I'm not buying it.
Curtis Martin belongs in the Hall of Fame. He wasn't flashy, but was a very good back. He belongs in 2012 class. Curtis is better than Bettis because his prime is longer. Curtis had very good durability for a running back. Running Backs aren't suppose to play at very high level in their early 30's.
Terrell Davis isn't in the Hall of Fame because he had a short career and that means Curtis Martin shouldn't be punished for longevity as a result.
I'm a Bronco fan and I honestly did not remember Martin fumbling in that game. After John Elway retired, Curtis Martin was my favorite player in the league, so maybe I blocked it out of my memory.
I'm happy to read an unabashedly pro-Martin piece any time and I really hope he goes in immediately.
It's funny. I don't believe in curses, or being snakebit, or whatever, but I remember when Curtis fumbled in that '98 Championship game. I felt betrayed, like my wife had cheated on me. "This isn't supposed to happen," I remember thinking. And yet I harbor no grudges, which tells you how much we, as Jet fans, came to worship this guy. Unlike Gastineau, and that godforsaken roughing the passer penalty. That, I will never forgive.
@ Charles Butler, Comment #5
"Tailed off"? Let me re-quote a particular part of the opening post that you must have missed:
"There's no doubt what makes Martin unique: his durability. He played in 168 regular season games in his career. In his first 84 games, he rushed for 7,194 yards and 50 touchdowns. In his last 84 games, he rushed for 6,907 yards and 50 touchdowns. He accumulated an incredible workload but didn't wear down for over a decade. He's one of just 14 running backs with 7,500 rushing yards in his first six seasons. Then, from season seven to season eleven, he was one of five guys with 6,000 rushing yards."
The first and second halves of his career were nearly identical, and he's one of only five players to rush for 6,000 yards from his seventh to eleventh season. How is that "tailing off"?
The "compiler" argument is really a QB/WR argument. As far as running backs go, you can really only apply it to guys who squeak into the top 20 by being primary ballcarriers, as opposed to feature backs -- Fred Taylor and Warrick Dunn being the two guys in that conversation. When you're talking about lifelong 300-carry backs, the label stops being negative, and starts being a compelling reason for admission.
Martin was a beast throughout his career. Faulk and Bettis were both sent packing by their teams because they'd each been unproductive for two or more seasons, and their teams just couldn't depend on them.
I hate Hate HATE the Jets, but it's astonishing to me that there's even any discussion that Faulk or Bettis should get in before Martin.
For the record, I think Curtis Martin should be in the Hall of Fame and will eventually get there (although probably not this year). However, I do have a couple of arguments against Martin's candidacy:
1) His career Y/A is a hit for those arguing that he was not a compiler. Only seven RBs have made the Hall with a 4.0 or less career Y/A:
http://tinyurl.com/4ug7a7u
Of those seven, only John Riggins and Floyd Little played after 1953.
2) Speaking of Little, I strongly dislike when someone uses the "if Player X is in, how can Player Y not be in?" argument. I was very much against Floyd Little's induction last year because I knew he would set the HOF bar a little lower and people would then use him as a reason for other players getting in, just as Jim Glass did at the end of his comment above.
If a player deserves to be in the Hall of Fame, his career should stand up against multiple enshrinees. If we compare every candidate to the lowest possible standard available, then you could argue that every above-average player deserves to slip into Canton.
I don't think you can use the 'if his coaches kept giving him the ball, he must've been good' argument to put someone in the Hall of Fame. Sure, he was a good runner, but good isn't good enough for the Hall (even if you add in amazing longevity/durability/toughness).
To deserve a spot in the Hall of Fame you need to be an elite player, at the top in the league at your position. And except for 2004, Martin wasn't. 2004 was Martin's only All-Pro season, and the only time he was separated from the pack near the top of the league in statistics like Football Outisders' DVOA and DYAR or Advanced NFL Stats' Expected Points Added or Win Probability Added. (These stats are better than YPA since they credit him for his low fumble rate and don't unfairly reward boom-and-bust guys.). The rest of his career he had some good seasons, made a few Pro Bowls, churned out a lot of yards, and occasionally made the top 10 or so in some advanced stats, but he didn't have the kind of dominant, elite performances that earn you a spot in the Hall.
Martin is one of those guys who wouldn't bother me either way. Certainly he falls into the grey area of "more deserving than Bettis, less deserving than Davis and Faulk".
I think his chances this year are negligible, but in the future they're solid.
I somehow forgot all about Faulk being eligible in all my fervor about how Hanburger should get in right now. IMO Martin will get in next year for sure.
"Martin was a beast throughout his career. Faulk and Bettis were both sent packing by their teams because they'd each been unproductive for two or more seasons, and their teams just couldn't depend on them."
faulk nearly did the 1000/1000 in his last season with the colts.
Speaking of Little, I strongly dislike when someone uses the "if Player X is in, how can Player Y not be in?" argument .... as Jim Glass did at the end of his comment above.
To clarify: How the same people could vote/argue for Little being in last year, then vote/argue against Martin being in this year, is beyond me. Yet many of them did, obviously.
Curtis Martin should be in but I don't see him as a first ballot HOF, so I have no problem with him not getting in today. If anything Bettis had a slightly better case as a first balloter. 10th all time in rush TD, one ahead of Martin. 5th all time in yards just about 400 behind Martin. But he had a Super Bowl ring, and Bettis was often a game changer, the focal part of many Steeler teams. And Bettis was in essence a fullback who put up Halfback numbers. Think Jim Taylor. Martin never seemed to me a "I will put the team on my back and lead them to victory" kind of back. He was always solid and consistent, but not really the feared kind of player that Bettis was at his best. I think they should both get in next year or the year after. You can't keep RB with solid top 10 stats out. But then again, I am mystified at how Chris Carter and Tim Brown are not in and Micheal Irvin is (not in top 15 in any WR categories. There definitely is too much emphasis on SB rings for the HOF, which is odd since football is such a team game.
There also seems like some kind of odd conspiracy to keep valid Notre Dame HOF out of the Hall---Ricky Watters, Brown, Bettis. What is up with that? Watters is one of the top 20 RB of all time, and Brown and Bettis should be no brainers.
Jim Glass -
How the same people could vote/argue for Little being in last year, then vote/argue against Martin being in this year, is beyond me. Yet many of them did, obviously.
**
Little was a senior candidate and like all senior candidates they go through straight to the 'yes or no' vote. Martin needed to compete with the other 14 modern era candidates just to get to the last 5.... and it is only those last 5 that actually face a straight 'yes or no' vote. So nobody actually voted against Martin but instead just preferred Deion, Faulk, Sabol, Dent and Sharpe. I would have been very surprised actually if Martin had got in 1st time as that should only be reserved for the true greats of the game imo. Having a better candidate at the same position (Faulk) did not help his case either.
Martin does not deserve to get in.
Only a Martin fanboi would think he deserves to get in.
His yards per carry is horrid for a halfback.
You can't honestly with a straight face say that he deserves to be in the same company as Brown, Payton, Simpson, Dorsett, etc.
Also if you look at the QB stats,
Vinny Testeverde is number 7 and it would be an abomination if he got in.
John Hadl is a good example of a compiler. He was number 3 behind Unitas and Tarketnon when he retired in 77. Durability and racking up stats on medicore teams does not put you in the elite Hall of Fame.
@Fred
Aren't you being too hard? While I agree 4.0 Y/A isn't breathtaking, that also could be that the line didn't give me that good of protection, let's say someone like Emmit Smith and Thurman Thomas had. Even Payton in those 80s years had great blockers in front of him. Also being on mediocre teams yet still retiring with 90 Rushing TDs(12th all-time) is a testament to his Talent, and making the argument of compiling really isn't fair. He only played 11 yrs. Testeverde played 21 years and John Hadl played 16. So the idea that he had the years he racked up in his career doesn't apply to that argument.
Payton's teams were actually worse than Martin's for the majority of his career, yet he has a career average of 4.4 yards per carry.
The Bears were horrible from 1975-1983, his first 9 years, which was Payton's prime. The Bears were only good for Payton's last 4 years (84, 85, 86, 87). These were teams that basically had horrible quarterbacks and horrible receivers so all opposing defense had to do was key in on the running game.
and lets not forget that his first 3 season the NFL played only 14 games per year, and Payton also had to play through two NFL strikes (9 games and 12 games).
So the whole, well Martin did it under mediocre conditions doesn't hold water.
Shaun Alexander has more TDs (100) than Martin, and I don't think he belongs in the HOF either.
I don't agree with the compiler argument with respect to Curtis Martin. For me, that's more fitting of running backs like John Riggins, Jerome Bettis, and Marcus Allen. Of those three RBs, Allen is the only one with a better YPC. C Mart's 4.0 average may not be great, but it's better than Bettis or Riggins, and the former Pitt Panther played fewer seasons while amassing more yardage than Allen, Riggins, and Bettis.
Riggins had one Pro Bowl appearance and made All-Pro once in 15 seasons, yet he entered the Hall of Fame on his second shot. Worthy candidates like Cortez Kennedy, Randy Gradishar, Cris Carter, to name a few, are still waiting. Chris Hanburger and Richard Dent finally made it, but it took them decades. The reasons why some players get in before others has more to do with popularity than actual prowess on the field.
If you aren't considering his career counting stats he definitely does not deserve to be in the HOF. Martin came into the league in 1995 and retired in 2005. To me, for him to be a HOF player, he had to be a dominant back during that time frame - meaning there are few backs I would take instead of him on a year to year basis. That is hardly the case. While Martin played I would take Barry Sanders, Marshall Faulk, Emmitt Smith, Terrell Davis, LaDainian Tomlinson, Edgerrin James, Shaun Alexander, Ahman Green, and Clinton Portis over him for several year stretches. For brief periods Priest Holmes and Tiki Barber. I could even make an argument for Corey Dillon because he put up great numbers on poor teams (and had his career year once he went to a great team at the age of 30). If you aren't even in the top 5 in your era I have a hard time saying you deserve a spot in the HOF.
fred@26: Payton's teams were actually worse than Martin's for the majority of his career, yet he has a career average of 4.4 yards per carry..."
I think you will find little disagreement on this board or elsewhere with the assessment that Walter Payton was better than Curtis Martin.
What this has to do with whether Curtis Martin belongs in the hall of fame is not clear to me.
Martin's yards per carry are not especially impressive, it is true, but as noted elsewhere low YPC can be the result of many different factors. One factor is that when a single player is the primary offensive threat of a team, it is much harder for that player to excel in average yards than when a team has many excellent options.
A key thing we have to consider is Martin's low low fumble rate. I make a simple stat-monkey attempt to convert this into a yards value as follows:
The average NFL yards per point is about 16. The average point value of a turnover is around 5 points. So a turnover is worth roughly -80 yards. RB fumbles are recovered by the offense roughly 50% of the time, so a fumble is ballpark worth about -40 yards. Martin fumbled about .5% less than the current average for running backs, so on a per carry basis, his care of the ball is worth .2 yards per carry. And it's a bit more than that since fumble% is going down, the average for his career is probably closer to 1.5%.
I think it's safe to say that Martin was at least above average in effectiveness rather than simply average. And of course, just being average for 300 carries a season over 11 seasons is worth a great deal. Running back is the position where simply being able to suit up and be average or better for a large number of carries (and for a large number of seasons) is worth the most, as evidenced by how few players historically have been able to carry that kind of load consistently.
A lot depends on our judgement of how much of his yardage was through his own efforts versus the system and the line. If you think he was mostly the product of a good system, then maybe he doesn't quite cut it, but I don't think that's defensible.
Martin is a clear 'yes' for the HOF. But perhaps not 1st ballot worthy.
At RB, where even most great guys give maybe 5-7 good years, having a guy give you a full 10 years of top flight production IS a huge benefit. Football, in comparison to other sports, has shorter careers and more positions to fill -- meaning lots more turnover year to year. RBs are among the most challenging spots to provide quality players for extended periods. By not having to find another RB for a full decade, the Jets could fill other needs. I've seen way too many people argue against guys who have had long and productive careers. It doesn't make much sense.
The guy who the compiler argument was used against a lot was Art Monk. Well, its been 20 years since Monk retired and the Skins haven't had a WR come close to his level of play. With Martin, the Jets got good results from ThJones, but for just 3 years. This year, they went with LT, but that sure feels like a 1-2 year solution and its not clear if Shonn Green will be a longer term solution. Solving a key spot like RB ... for a decade, has a lot of value.
Curtis Martin will be in the HoF for his longevity, character, and production on the field. Though he is not likely to be 1st ballot compared to Faulk who was an MVP and is arguably one of the top-10 best of all time and probably the best "dual-threat" running back in the past 25yrs.
Chances of him getting in next season or within the next 5yrs are great, but I doubt he will have to wait that long. People like sn0mm1s above will point out that he was not as great as some of the other top flight backs in the league. Well despite Barry Sanders, there was no other back that held up his yds and production like C-Mart.
Some will point out the terrific supporting cast the Jets had, but despite in 98 the Jets never really had a top-10 passing attack or overall offense. What other offensive threat did the Jets have that scared opponents? There was never a stable QB that produced elite numbers or a top-flight receiver, though one can argue with Keyshawn or maybe Coles. Martin was the focal point of that offense, he rarely fumbled and was consistent at churning out 4yds a carry which although not very impressive with other backs career averages, he did it for 10yrs straight even when carrying the rock 360+ times which he did it 4x! He wasn't fast or flashy, which was why he was a 3rd round pick, but he still produced.
My last point will go to that 2004 season in which he was 1st team All-Pro for the only time in his career at 31yrs of age. An amazing feat for someone his age. One telling stat was that he led the league in rushing attempts which should equal most yards which he did have. Though when compared to other top-10 rushers of that year, his longest carry was 25yds. Which was close to 20yds shorter than the longest run from any of the other top-10 rushers of that year. Long runs in each game:
24-12-12-11-14-9-25-19-21-19-19-22-13-20-5-20
He was prone to break a long run in a game after about 20 carries, but the main cog in this argument was that he didn't have an "inflated" ypc in the season. He was always consistent in getting 4-5yds on every run. It is an amazing feat his 4.6ypc considering just how few big runs he managed to have. Which of course is the story of his career, not much flash but will always do what was asked of him.
Hope to see you in Canton soon Curtis!