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ShareThisThe Peyton Manningless Colts of Indianapolis
No one knows how the Colts will look without Peyton Manning. And we're about to find out much sooner than anyone in Indianapolis ever expected. Yesterday, Manning went under his third neck surgery in 19 months, and is expected to miss most, if not all, of the season. If Manning is indeed out for the year, what should we expect?
- A few years ago, Doug noted that the average starting quarterback is worth 2.3 points, or about a win per season. A useful starting point, but no one has ever confused Manning with an 'average starting quarterback.'
- Brian Burke says that the entire Colts passing offense -- of which Manning is the central figure -- is worth about 3.8 wins per season.
- Jason Lisk looked at how other teams have fared when their HOF quarterbacks went down, and concluded that the Colts would not be nearly as bad as people think if Manning missed just a few games, and that Kerry Collins will put up near league average numbers. Still, he only projects the Colts to go 6-10.
I'm less optimistic than most. I'm not going out on a limb if I tell you that the Colts are going to implode, but I think that's what's going to happen. If Manning is gone for 16 games, I would probably take the "under" even at 6 wins.
Let's start with a few differences between the 2011 Colts and some other teams missing their franchise quarterback:
- For starters, Don Shula, Bill Walsh, Jimmy Johnson, and George Seifert aren't coaching the Colts. At this point, we've seen more from Bill Belichick's hoodie than from Jim Caldwell. Caldwell went 26-63 as head coach at Wake Forest. He was handpicked to replace Tony Dungy because of his ability to seamlessly guide the ship. He did so admirably in year one, bringing the Colts to the Super Bowl. But his assignment now isn't to guide the ship, it's to build it. He's going from being a 'game manager' to being the captain. And we've seen nothing from Caldwell to suggest that he's capable of doing that. Or that he's awake.
- To the point, the Colts lose more than a Hall of Fame quarterback. Manning was an offensive coordinator and a coach on the field. Making matters worse, Tony Dungy and Tom Moore are gone, and along with Peyton Manning, the core of what's made the Colts "the Colts" over the past decade won't be around in 2011.
- If the Colts struggled early, I doubt they keep their motivation late. In '98, Steve Young had a monster season and San Francisco made the playoffs for the 15th time in 16 years. When Young went down in week three of the '99 season, the 49ers were 2-1. But they ended the season 4-12. Once a team so accustomed to playing meaningful games has their hopes dashed by week 9, will they have the motivation to play at a high level? The Colts play Pittsburgh and Atlanta, in addition to road trips to Houston, Tampa Bay and New Orleans, in the first 9 weeks. Even a split among the easier games -- home for Cleveland, Jacksonville and Kansas City, along with traveling to Cincinnati, might only give them a 3-6 record. Dwight Freeney, Reggie Wayne and Jeff Saturday aren't used to 'playing out the string' and may not play up to their talent levels if the wheels fall off in Indy.
- Kerry Collins was good in 2008. That was so long ago Brett Favre was on the Jets, Plaxico Burress wasn't in jail, and Lendale White had 200 carries. Collins is young for his age, in that he has a December 30th birthday. But at nearly 39 years old, does Collins have much left in the tank? Brett Favre, Warren Moon, Vinny Testaverde and Doug Flutie had good games at 39 and older, but most quarterbacks are retired at this point. Come to think of it, Collins was retired as of two months ago.
There are lots of reasons to be down on the Colts; are there any to be optimistic? Here's the problem in Indianapolis. For years, the Colts have been building around Manning. They've drafted pass catching tight ends and pass blocking lineman, while failing to improve the rushing attack. They spent money on great pass rushers but didn't have the cap space for strong cornerbacks. Essentially, the Colts team was built on Peyton Manning passing for a lot of yards and scoring a lot of points. Now what?
The Colts aren't suddenly going to turn into a ground-and-pound offense. Even with new LT Anthony Costanzo, the Colts still sport one of the league's worst run blocking lines.The Colts ranked last in rushing yards and 30th in YPC in '09, "rising" to 29th and 27th in those categories last year. Joseph Addai and Donald Brown can't carry an offense, and Delone Carter isn't going to step in and be Jim Brown, Larry Csonka, Floyd Little, Jim Nance or Joe Morris. If the Colts are lucky, he'll be better than James Mungro. But either way, don't expect the Colts to turn into a run-first team.
Can the Colts turn Collins into a game manager and expect to win games with their defense? Do you know who the Colts' defensive tackles are? Fili Moala and Antonio Johnson. Know the names of the starting cornerbacks? Jacob Lacey and Jerraud Powers. You'd be hard pressed to find a worse pair of duos that anchor a team's rushing and passing defense. The Colts were 0-5 in games where they trailed after the first quarter and 7-0 in games where they led after the first quarter. In the other four games, Indianapolis was winning by halftime in three, and won all of them, but lost the fourth game. The Colts model is to pass early and often, gain a lead, and play to the defense's strengths: namely, rushing the passer. But if the Colts are forced to have their run defense take center stage, and can't help the cornerbacks by playing in obvious passing downs, the defense is going to look much, much worse in 2011.
Which brings me to the point: the Colts aren't now going to try to win with defense, because the defense isn't built that way. Indianapolis won't try to win by running, because the offense isn't built that way. The Colts are going to try to plug and play, essentially keeping the high-octane, aerial attack that tries to get leads early, but by deploying Kerry Collins in lieu of Peyton Manning. That is a recipe for disaster.
In 2009, the Colts set a record for the largest disparity between passing and rushing first downs. Last year, they actually passed for 12 more first downs than they did the year before. Indianapolis is built around a lethal passing attack; Kerry Collins is going to kill the passing attack. Building a team around an almost 39-year-old recently retired quarterback who has two weeks of training is a train wreck waiting to happen. I'd be shocked if he doesn't miss at least a few games this season, and the Colts will be even worse when he's out.
The Colts won't pass effectively. They won't run effectively. When those things happen, the defense will be more exposed than ever. And after an ugly start, I think the most talented veterans on the team will lose their motivation. The Colts could very well bottom out to 3-13. It's not about how good Peyton Manning is, or how valuable he is; it's about how the team was built around him. Peyton Manning isn't the straw that stirs the drinks. He's the glass that holds the drink. Without him, Indy is going to be a wet mess.
This entry was posted on Friday, September 9th, 2011 at 10:21 am and is filed under General, Quarterbacks. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.
Outstanding analysis. I have heard many analysts say that the Colts cannot continue with the same game plan but nobody has said that they will because they do not know how to do anything else and they don't have the executive leadership to make changes on the fly. (Let's not forget that in addition to the departure of Dungy, Mudd and Manning the team is dealing with the departure of Mr. Polian - his son is in charge now, true?).
What I would absolutely love see happen is see the Colts implode and end up with the number one pick. Can you imagine the civil war that will take place in IND between the Luck and Manning camps? Ha! Love it.
The IND fans should count their lucky stars that Manning went down this year of all years. They are now in the Luck sweepstakes and have the opportunity to be relevant for yet another decade.
I am a Colts fan from indy and quite frankly i 100% agree with post #1. I am still stunned and bummed out about the manning loss because proved last year he still "has it". without manning the colts would have probably been the 2nd worst team to Carolina because their def. sharply declined from 2009, they don't run the ball(don't need to with manning in my opinion), and losing dallas clark was a big loss indeed. I would be completely on board with landing Andrew Luck as the "next man up." Colts wouldn't need to look for another qb until the middle of the next decade if Luck is as good and healthy as advertised. The only way the Colts could compete for a championship with COllins is with a better running game and a "shutdown" defense like what Tampa had when Brad Johnson was qb.
I'm a little more optimistic, if only because I think that, as you said, there are still very bad teams out there and expecting a team that's won 10 straight for 36 million years to become the worst team in the league is unlikely. Peyton's awesome, but they must have some other NFL-caliber players on that roster. Plus, crazy s*** happens in football games.
Also, I dispute this statement: "I'd be shocked if he [Collins] doesn't miss at least a few games this season, and the Colts will be even worse when he's out."
How do we know they'll be worse? I don't buy into the "veteran is automatically better than some guy who's never played" theory that's so prevalent in sports. A bad player is a bad player, period. Curtis Painter might actually be better than Kerry Collins right now. None of us can say for sure, but if Collins goes out and stinks up the joint for the first four games, the Colts better make the change instead of worshipping at the altar of veteran-ness.
Manning was an offensive coordinator and a coach on the field.
He can still be a coach on the field--just not with a helmet and padding
Jason W, Curtis Painter is pretty bad. There's a reason the Colts decided to pay Kerry Collins $4 million.
Now I'm not positive that Collins will be a significant upgrade on Painter, but Painter certainly won't be better.
I know that the other QB's can "listen in" on the play calls with their radio helmets. Would the Colts allow PM to be a 2nd OC up in the booth--and work with calling plays? Shoot--run hurry-up, get the Colts in a formation with 30 secs left on the play clock, let Collins stand there and look at the D--then while PM analyzes from upstairs, he'll have 10-15 secs to talk to Collins via radio. Then Collins will have 15 secs to do his own pre-snap reads (esp. if the defense changes to a different look w/ less than 15 secs left on the playclock), and then run the play. D can't substitute much (if at all), Colts "run clock" while being in "hurry up" mode--sounds like a good plan to me.
One Q--even if Colts allow PM to do this--would the NFL? Is there a rule against it?
Why not make Manning the OC and QB coach this year?
You can get a good ballpark estimate from how the line on the Colts-Texans game has moved. On ESPN's spread pick'em, the line is still listed as Texans -2.5, but has since moved all the way to Texans -9. I find this quite remarkable since Vegas rarely likes to move the line more than 2 or 3 points, but I don't disagree with the analysis.
Would Garrard be any better?
Sean,
Probably. Kerry Collins has consistently had a better sack rate than Garrard, but I think that's more a reflection of Collins' style of play than his mobility. Plus, some of Garrard's "sacks avoided" were runs.
I think Garrard would probably fare a bit better behind a mediocre offensive line, as he's got decent mobility (even if it's not what it was when he was younger). Garrard also didn't retire this year, so he's got that going for him.
Chase...if it plays out as you suggest and the colts go 3-13, what should the fallout be? Do we first and foremost blame manning for having a team designed around him? DO we blame caldwell for being ineffectual at anything non game managerial related? Or do we blame polian for amassing a team that was essentially built on one player?
I am a huge huge huge colts fan but frankly, if this team finishes 3-13(and honestly, i expect it to) than that is inexcusable. I don't care who you have qbing the team, no one should go from playoff and possible sb contender to worst in the league because of one player.
I know people seem to be in love with cassell, but keep it in perspective. He was starting for the first time since highschool and took the pats to an 11-5 record. Such a green qb taking a team to 11-5 record speaks volumes about the kind of coaching and depth the team had to weather the loss of their hof qb.
The colts? If they absolutely implode, i think there needs to be some serious evaluations done in the offseason
I think the Colts would likely win more than 3 games with Collins because Jacksonville will not be much of a threat if McCown is under center combined with the fact that they still don't have any "stars" on defense unless tyson a. develops into one during year 2. That said, jim Caldwell would deserve coach of the year if they go 10-6 or better, even 9-7 would shock me. predictionmachine.com predicts 6-10 and looking at the Colts schedule, 6-10 with Collins all season would be likely If its painter, then we're looking more toward the only 2 wins being home vs jacksonville and vs. Carolina. Granted, there is a big part of me as a Colts fan that wouldn't mind a 1-15/2-14 year because a qb like Luck doesn't come around at the top of every draft and I'd rather the Colts not trade up to acquire a qb. The top 3 of the 2012 qb class impress me much more than the 2011 qb's.
To be honest, I don't think the Colts were a Super Bowl contender this year anyway. In my eyes they play in the 2nd worst division in the league and likely would have won it anyway, but I feel they would've struggled to 10 wins. The reality is the Colts have been blowing drafts for years, and someone (I think Trent Dilfer) said on ESPN that the Colts have one. Of the five worst rosters in football, plus Peyton. The ideal scenario for Indy is to bottom out (Suck4Luck) and let Luck go to Peyton Manning School for two years and then take over in year 3 for a then 38 yr old PM. I don't think even this team can lose more than the Bengals, but I loved the point about Indy's vets who have only known winning losing the desire to kill themselves every week for Collins/Painter. Great write-up.
Football Outsiders had the Colts' average projection at 7.8 wins, and that was with Manning taking the snaps.
I think we need to give Polian a bit of a break here. Last year was the first time the Colts didn't win 12 games since 2002. They won the Super Bowl in 2006, and got there in 2009. When exactly was Polian supposed to conclude that it was time to start rebuilding? And what gems was he supposed to draft, picking in the bottom six slots?
This is what "parity" means, folks -- teams that are built around a small number of difference-makers in key positions. It's not a bad strategy. It's not bad management when your best player, at the most important position, who happens to hold the record for most consecutives games played by active players, goes down with a major injury. It's bad luck. Really, really bad luck.
3-13 sounds right.
By the way, as between Collins and Painter, the issue is this: they know Painter is not an NFL QB. They have some reason to believe that Collins is still an NFL QB. They might be wrong -- he may be as bad as Painter -- but they had to bring in someone, because going with Painter simply isn't an option.
@ Jeremy
Sure, if Polian's standards are measured against most teams, he's been very successful. But these are the colts and their measuring stick is weighted against the steelers, ravens, patriots, packers, and saints of the world. In 2007, the colts were one of the best teams in recent memory but we have seen a steady erosion in the overall talent level of the roster. Don't let 09 fool you, that team still failed to run the football and had a very shaky defense. They survived, just as always, on great passing from manning and the receivers and great pass rush. The problem is, nothing else around the team has improved and those power areas are fast declining or about to. Its the gm's job to provide the next layer of depth to turn into your stars, not continue to rely on the excellence of draft choices made nearly 5-6 years ago.
I believe the Colts have to try to stay balanced without Manning - 50% run/pass. If they can do this, they will have a shot in the 4th qtr to win some games. This shifts the pressure from the QB to the O-line. This is not a strength of the Colts, obviously, which is why they will have trouble with any team that starts pulling away from them. Because of this, and a slower release, I think Collins will get hit a lot this year,
Wouldn't it be awesome to see what Wade's defense will do if we get up on the Colts by a couple of TDs?
@ Ajit
The Colts team that won the Super Bowl won on great passing, great pass rush, mediocre running, and the worst run defense in the league -- much like how you describe last year's team, and quite a far cry from "one of the best teams in recent memory". The big difference in their playoff run was Bob Sanders, when he played. But isn't that the same issue -- is it Polian's fault that a key difference-maker misses half the season due to injury?
Of the teams you mentioned, only the Patriots could really be described as consistently successful for any period of time -- the Ravens, Packers, and Saints have had multiple losing seasons in the last six years, and the Steelers have missed the playoffs twice, in between their three Super Bowl appearances twice.
I don't know that anyone's in a position to say that Polian has done a worse job than anybody but the Patriots.
@ Jeremy
For the record, the steelers missed the playoffs once at 9-7 and one of those losses occurred at baltimore in overtime with ben out with an injury. Baltimore yes has also missed the playoffs a few times but when you notice whos been playing qb for them over the years, its much easier to understand. I think my pt was to show, however, that the steelers and ravens have both developed much more talented overall rosters if we ignore the qb position. Their defenses and offensive lines are usually pretty good and in the case of the steelers, their wide receiving core has also remained consistently good. Let me ask you, do you really believe the colts have that much talent? Even their receiving core feels like wayne clark and some role players made better by manning. We know their o line is attrocious, their running backs are semi decent and their defense is woeful. Contrast that with other franchises and you begin to see that Polian isn't getting nearly the criticism he deserves for failing to develop other parts of the team. Thats just my 2cents anyways.
@ Ajit,
On reflection I think you're right. I'm actually less high on the receiving corps than you are -- I think Wayne is a product of Manning; on any other team he'd have had a career more like, say, Sean Dawkins or Deion Branch.
I remember the start of the 2001 season, the Patriots were considered to be one of the least-talented teams in the league -- a decent quarterback in Bledsoe, and potential Pro Bowl receiver in Terry Glenn, and then 51 also-rans filling out the roster. Then, of course, Bledsoe goes down, and Glenn was either injured or suspended for the season, forget which. And the rest is history.
The evaluations of everybody but Brady were correct -- not a lot of talent on that roster. But what they missed was the great chemistry, work ethic, and out-of-this world coaching. Looking at the Colts, I see a similar team: a great QB, a couple of good players, and a lot of also-rans. But they don't have the chemistry, they don't have the work ethic, and they sure as hell don't have the coaching.
There is an argument to be made that Polian hasn't made a top-calibre decision in many years. It's probably too soon to know for sure. But what I do know is that great managers should be judged less by what they build, and more by what they rebuild. All teams have had stretches of seasons where they're 6-10 or worse. What separates the Arizonas from the Pittsburghs are whether that stretch is two seasons or ten.
We'll see soon enough with the Colts.
On Bill Polian - building a defense around the concept of "playing with the lead" is one of the dumbest methods of team-building that's ever been used. Manning has covered up for it best he can, but anyone should be able to find that even the best offenses can't always jump out to a good lead every week. I think that lack of size, emphasis on speed and pass rush has made their defense worse than it should be.
Polian used to draft a lot of great 1st round picks. He had a lot of nice drafts overall for a while there. Then 2007 came and bang, tons of misses in the draft, and they do almost nothing in free agency. The result is a team that relies on Manning to carry them more than ever. Now he's out of the picture this year and they're stuck with Kerry Collins and Curtis Painter. If they win more than 6 games I'll be shocked.
@ Jeremy
I will say this, its harder to evaluate the patriots talent level for multiple reasons. You could say it was mostly brady, but i would argue before 2005, the pats were very much a heavy defense led team while asking brady to be a glorified game manager. That all changed in 06 and especially 07 though I would say the talent around him then with moss and welker, combined with mankins made them pretty strong(not to suggest brady didn't make people look better than they were, because he did). Still, the fact that they still won 11 games with cassell(and the fact that they were still successful on offense) showed they had the talent/coaching beyond tom brady. Last year's steelers showed they could still go 3-1 /w out Ben. Will the colts be able to replicate what the steelers and pats did? I highly doubt it.
@scott- it was a good strategy to a point. When the colts offense was firing on all cylinders, the strategy made sense from an economic and risk standpt. They didn't have to sign big name free agents and they could find smallish undervalued talent to fill out the roster while keep the bulk of the money on offense. As the offensive line steadily worsened to mud, as the receiving core went from harrison wayne and stokley to wayne clark and garcon and finally, as the running game went from productive with edge to woeful with brown and addai, the weakness of the strategy suddenly became far more glaring.
As of now, the colts offense is on its last legs. I doubt the strategy bill has used will work anymore and thats why i feel like wholesale changes have to be made from a coaching and scheme standpoint. Some will say, making such a systemic shift is risky and could lead to complete disarray. Frankly, i think it should be done.
@ jeremy
One last thing, I am not high on the colts receivers at ALL. I long feel wayne in an average pass game would be considered little more than a solid wr. Garcon was abysmal last year and while collie is good 3rd wideout, hes still exactly that, a 3rd wideout. Together, they probably make for a pretty average or slightly above average group, but hardly among the best in the league.
I agree the Colts will not be able to duplicate, at least likely, what the Pats and Steelers did without their 2 franchise qbs, but the only way they win 4 or less games is with Painter behind center. Certainly I wouldn't mind that, but don't forget the Colts play Carolina at home, @ Cincinnati, 2 games vs Jacksonville, 2 games vs. Tennesee , and Kansas City could be a more difficult home game but it is faulty to say the Colts would have no chance against a Chiefs team projected by many to finish under .500. Additionally, the Colts beat the Chiefs despite the Colts actualy leaning on their defense to limit the Chiefs to a few fg's last season. I think 6-10 is a reasonable prediction without Manning. They'll win the majority of the games above.
The Colts split against the Jags last season, swept the Titans by a total of 5 points, lost to a weak Dallas team, and won a close game against an equally weak Redskins team.
Mediocre teams don't win all their "winnable" games. Generally they split them. The Jags and Titans will be smelling blood and looking for payback after years of getting beaten up by the Colts. The Panthers and Chiefs are weak teams, but their biggest strength plays very well against the Colts' biggest weakness: they can't stop the run. I'm expecting them to go 1-3 against the Jags and Titans, and split against the Chiefs, Panthers, Bengals and Browns. The other eight games, I expect them to get absolutely killed.
Watching the Colts this season might make us realize that Peyton Manning should have been the MVP just about every year of the past decade.
Based on today, it appears that the run defense is actually no worse than, well, every other aspect of their game....
I'll say those who thought the Colts won't win more than 4 or 5 with Collins are right. Honestly, i wouldn't mind them going with Painter and just giving themselves the best possible chance at Luck in case the long-term forecast about Manning is poor. It's so clear today how Manning can innately mask the problems of the line as well in terms of pass blocking.
Lol, can we hand manning the mvp as an absentee? Seriously, not to tout myself up, but this team is as bad as i predicted. My god they suck
The offensive line was every bit this bad last year, but Manning's unbelievable awareness and quick release masked it to some extent. Glenn has never been replaced, Saturday is declining, Diem has already massively declined . . . they're an awful unit. People remember opening day last year for Arian Foster running all over them, and forget that the Colts might still have won that game if Williams and Smith hadn't been hurrying or hitting Manning almost every play (or indeed if Pierre Garcon could even vaguely catch). I think the O/U is probably 3.5 or 4 wins with Collins, 2 with Painter. 8 or 9 with Manning healthy all year.
Colts are just attrocious without Manning. I have been watching the NFL for 30 years and I don't recall one team EVER, not just currently, being so dependent on one player.
Coaching is awful, Caldwell doesn't know what he is doing, drafting lately has been bad (this past one notwithstanding), there is no run game and Manning makes the pass protection look much better than it truly is. COllins won't last the season, he will get injured.
I love the COlts, but this is shaping up to be an epically bad year.
I hope if they do not improve much by week 3 they just ride Painter out unless he gets hurt as a way to go for the highest draft pick possible. They could truly lose every game with Painter and still actually try to win. Additionally, trade Robert Mathis for a draft pick since he is an impending free agent and it's clear the Colts need at least 1 end that can play the run. I'd agree that the quality of the Colts drafts have gone down since 2005 and it's starting to catch up.
Manning is a Mad Scientist... you can replace the body, but the brain is what makes that offense tick... nobody can really tell you what he is seeing and reading.
Caldwell took the Colts to the Super Bowl in his first season.
Let's go back a couple of coaching changes ago in Indianapolis.
Ted Marchiabroda took the Colts to the AFC championship game after the 1995 season and were a dropped pass away from the Super Bowl. He wanted a raise on his new contract and the owners did not want to give it to him.
In 1996, under Lindy Infante, the Colts were the league's last undefeated team at 4-0 and a Week 5 bye. They went 5-7 the rest of the season and lost in the Wild Card round. In 1997 they played well enough to get the first overall pick and choose P.Manning over Leaf (good choice). In Manning's rookie year, the Colts went 3-13 and picked up Edgerrin James in the draft.
My point? The Colts have been in this position before, and it took a couple of years to get out of it.
Chase...if i asked you what you imagine this team's record will be by years end...what would you say? I honestly think if this team can't beat the jags or chiefs or bengals(frankly the only really plausibly winnable games), they really have a shot at 0-16. I know they put a good show against pitt, but that felt like a one game abberation for a team playing on national tv, rather than a team that will truly be competitive every week. Remember, only two weeks ago, this team was losing 34-0 at halftime against the texans.