Fifth Annual Bowl Pool for Geeks

"My A* search is bogging down, so I'm going to have to switch over to simulated annealing and see if that will work." -- Sean F

"When you're right 52 percent of the time, you're wrong 48 percent of the time." -- Smooth Jimmy Apollo

Results of 10000 simulations | Important games | Most- and least-often-picked teams | Common teams picked | Everyone's full entries

Results of 10000 simulations

Vince8     averaged 6.60 groups per trial and won 55.0 pct of the trials
JWM38      averaged 6.40 groups per trial and won 45.0 pct of the trials

In 21.51 pct of the trials, the top scorer had  8 groups
In 78.49 pct of the trials, the top scorer had  7 groups


The chance of a tie is 0.00 pct
The chance of a three- (or more) way tie is 0.00 pct

Peeking ahead

If OHIOST_BALLST_FLORIDA wins
If OHIOST_BALLST_OKLAHOMA wins
If OHIOST_TULSA_FLORIDA wins
If OHIOST_TULSA_OKLAHOMA wins
If TEXAS_BALLST_FLORIDA wins
If TEXAS_BALLST_OKLAHOMA wins
If TEXAS_TULSA_FLORIDA wins
If TEXAS_TULSA_OKLAHOMA wins

Dan2 BillM4 Vince8 Griffin13 JT14 Eric17 DaveM19 Hedgehog20 Chase22 JeffH35 rosdj37 JWM38 JeffP39 MichaelH41 Barry43 SLW44

Navy . . . . . . . .

WakeForest x x x x x x x x

ColoSt x x x x

Fresno . . . . . . . . . . . .

Memphis . . .

SoFlorida x x x x x x x x x x x x x

BYU . . . . . . . . . .

Arizona x x x x x x

SoMiss x x x x x x x

Troy . . . . . . . . .

BoiseSt . . . . . . . . . . . .

TCU x x x x

NotreDame x x x x x x x x

Hawaii . . . . . . . .

FlorAtl x x

CentMich . . . . . . . . . . . . .

WestVirginia x x x x x x

NoCarolina . . . . . . . . . .

Wisconsin

FloridaSt x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x

Miami . . . .

Cal x x x x x x x x x x x x

LaTech x x x x x x x x x x

NoIllinois . . . . . .

NCState . .

Rutgers x x x x x x x x x x x x x x

Northwestern . . .

Missouri x x x x x x x x x x x x x

Maryland x x x x x x x x x

Nevada . . . . . . .

WestMich . . . . . . . .

Rice x x x x x x x x

Oregon x x x x x

OklaSt . . . . . . . . . . .

AirForce . . . . . . . .

Houston x x x x x x x x

Pitt . . . . . . .

OregonSt x x x x x x x x x

Vandy x x

BostCol . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Minnesota . . . . .

Kansas x x x x x x x x x x x

LSU x

GaTech . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

SoCar . . . .

Iowa x x x x x x x x x x x x

Nebraska x x x x x x x x x

Clemson . . . . . . .

MichSt . . .

Georgia x x x x x x x x x x x x x

PennSt . . . . . .

USC x x x x x x x x x x

VaTech x x x x x x x x

Cincy . . . . . . . .

OleMiss x x

TexTech . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Kentucky x x x x x x x x

EastCar . . . . . . . .

Utah x x x x x x

Alabama . . . . . . . . . .

Buffalo . . . . . . .

Connecticut x x x x x x x x x

OhioSt x x

Texas x x x x x x x x x x x x x x

Tulsa x x x x x x x x

BallSt x x x x x x x x

Oklahoma x x x x x x x x x

Florida x x x x x x x

Important games

Separation games (these are games on which we were fairly evenly split)

Navy vs. WakeForest
SoMiss vs. Troy
NotreDame vs. Hawaii
Maryland vs. Nevada
WestMich vs. Rice
AirForce vs. Houston
Pitt vs. OregonSt
Nebraska vs. Clemson
VaTech vs. Cincy
Kentucky vs. EastCar
Buffalo vs. Connecticut
Tulsa vs. BallSt
Oklahoma vs. Florida

Crucial games (these are the teams you are nearly alone on)

Dan2: ~~Northwestern~~, ~~Miami~~, ColoSt, TCU
BillM4: ~~Northwestern~~, ~~MichSt~~
Vince8: ColoSt
Griffin13: ~~Memphis~~, TCU
JT14: ~~Miami~~
Eric17: OleMiss, ~~NCState~~, FlorAtl, ~~SoCar~~, TCU
DaveM19: OleMiss, ~~NCState~~, Vandy, ~~Northwestern~~, ~~SoCar~~
Hedgehog20: TCU
Chase22: ~~MichSt~~, ColoSt
JeffH35: ~~SoCar~~
rosdj37: LSU
JWM38: OhioSt, ~~Memphis~~, ~~MichSt~~, ColoSt
JeffP39:
MichaelH41: ~~Miami~~, ~~SoCar~~
Barry43: OhioSt, Vandy
SLW44: FlorAtl, ~~Memphis~~, ~~Miami~~

Most- and least-often-picked teams

FloridaSt             16
GaTech                15
TexTech               14
Rutgers               14
BostCol               14
Texas                 14
Missouri              13
SoFlorida             13
Georgia               13
CentMich              13
BoiseSt               12
Fresno                12
Iowa                  12
Cal                   12
Kansas                11
OklaSt                11
USC                   10
BYU                   10
Alabama               10
LaTech                10
NoCarolina            10
Connecticut            9
Oklahoma               9
OregonSt               9
Nebraska               9
Maryland               9
Troy                   9
VaTech                 8
WakeForest             8
Navy                   8
BallSt                 8
Rice                   8
Cincy                  8
NotreDame              8
Hawaii                 8
Houston                8
Kentucky               8
Tulsa                  8
WestMich               8
AirForce               8
EastCar                8
Nevada                 7
Buffalo                7
Clemson                7
Florida                7
SoMiss                 7
Pitt                   7
NoIllinois             6
Utah                   6
Arizona                6
WestVirginia           6
PennSt                 6
Oregon                 5
Minnesota              5
Miami                  4
ColoSt                 4
SoCar                  4
TCU                    4
Memphis                3
Northwestern           3
MichSt                 3
OhioSt                 2
OleMiss                2
NCState                2
Vandy                  2
FlorAtl                2
LSU                    1
Wisconsin              0

Common teams picked

	Dan2	BillM4	Vince8	Griffin13	JT14	Eric17	DaveM19	Hedgehog20	Chase22	JeffH35	rosdj37	JWM38	JeffP39	MichaelH41	Barry43	SLW44
Dan2	34	23	22	20	20	14	18	16	18	22	19	15	18	22	18	18
BillM4	23	34	23	19	25	17	21	15	19	25	16	16	21	21	21	19
Vince8	22	23	34	20	22	20	18	18	22	24	23	21	20	18	26	18
Griffin13	20	19	20	34	20	18	16	22	24	18	21	19	20	24	20	18
JT14	20	25	22	20	34	22	22	20	16	26	21	15	24	24	20	24
Eric17	14	17	20	18	22	34	22	19	16	20	17	15	18	18	18	20
DaveM19	18	21	18	16	22	22	34	18	12	26	19	7	20	20	20	14
Hedgehog20	16	15	18	22	20	19	18	33	22	20	23	19	24	20	20	21
Chase22	18	19	22	24	16	16	12	22	34	16	21	27	22	18	18	20
JeffH35	22	25	24	18	26	20	26	20	16	34	21	13	24	24	20	20
rosdj37	19	16	23	21	21	17	19	23	21	21	34	18	23	17	25	21
JWM38	15	16	21	19	15	15	7	19	27	13	18	34	19	15	19	19
JeffP39	18	21	20	20	24	18	20	24	22	24	23	19	34	20	18	24
MichaelH41	22	21	18	24	24	18	20	20	18	24	17	15	20	34	16	20
Barry43	18	21	26	20	20	18	20	20	18	20	25	19	18	16	34	16
SLW44	18	19	18	18	24	20	14	21	20	20	21	19	24	20	16	34

Everyone's full entries

(listed in the order they were submitted)

Dan2

SoFlorida, Kansas, Texas (75.0 pct chance)
Northwestern (0.0)
PennSt (0.0)
Utah (100.0)
BYU, CentMich (0.0)
Maryland, BostCol (0.0)
ColoSt, OklaSt (0.0)
Hawaii, LaTech (0.0)
TexTech, Oklahoma (0.0)
WestVirginia, Rutgers (100.0)
FloridaSt, Miami (0.0)
Rice, Tulsa (43.0)
AirForce, Georgia (0.0)
Navy, Cincy (0.0)
Pitt, GaTech (0.0)
TCU, Nebraska (100.0)
EastCar, Buffalo (0.0)
SoMiss, Iowa (100.0)
Made Groups: 4
Open Groups: 2
Dead Groups: 12
Winners: 15
Expected groups: 5.18
Expected winners: 16.59

BillM4

Northwestern (0.0 pct chance)
Utah (100.0)
BoiseSt, GaTech (0.0)
Maryland, EastCar (0.0)
BYU, BostCol (0.0)
BallSt, Oklahoma (23.4)
Pitt, TexTech (0.0)
FloridaSt, MichSt (0.0)
Oregon, Texas (75.0)
NoCarolina, Nebraska (0.0)
WestMich, USC (0.0)
AirForce, Cincy (0.0)
WakeForest, Iowa, Buffalo (0.0)
SoFlorida, Cal, LaTech (100.0)
Troy, CentMich, Rutgers (0.0)
Fresno, Hawaii, Kansas (0.0)
Made Groups: 2
Open Groups: 2
Dead Groups: 12
Winners: 13
Expected groups: 2.98
Expected winners: 14.73

Vince8

SoFlorida, WestVirginia (100.0 pct chance)
Troy, Oregon (0.0)
ColoSt, CentMich (0.0)
FloridaSt, Pitt (0.0)
Cal, Tulsa (43.0)
Rutgers, Kentucky (100.0)
NotreDame, Missouri (100.0)
AirForce, BostCol (0.0)
Maryland, Kansas (100.0)
WestMich, GaTech (0.0)
Iowa, Oklahoma (41.0)
Georgia, VaTech (100.0)
BoiseSt, USC (0.0)
Navy, TexTech (0.0)
LaTech, Alabama (0.0)
BYU, Connecticut (0.0)
Nebraska, Texas (75.0)
Made Groups: 5
Open Groups: 3
Dead Groups: 9
Winners: 19
Expected groups: 6.59
Expected winners: 20.59

Griffin13

Rutgers, Georgia, USC (100.0 pct chance)
Utah (100.0)
Memphis (0.0)
Nevada, Nebraska, Oklahoma (0.0)
BYU, NoIllinois, BostCol (0.0)
NotreDame, Missouri, Houston (100.0)
CentMich, Cincy, EastCar (0.0)
Cal, OklaSt, Iowa (0.0)
SoMiss, OregonSt, Tulsa (43.0)
WestMich, Connecticut, Texas (0.0)
Fresno, TCU, GaTech (0.0)
NoCarolina, FloridaSt, TexTech (0.0)
Navy, Minnesota (0.0)
Made Groups: 3
Open Groups: 1
Dead Groups: 9
Winners: 15
Expected groups: 3.43
Expected winners: 16.59

JT14

Missouri, Pitt (0.0 pct chance)
BYU, Kansas (0.0)
USC, Alabama, Texas (0.0)
SoFlorida, Miami, BostCol (0.0)
WestMich, OklaSt (0.0)
CentMich, Maryland, GaTech (0.0)
Hawaii, LaTech (0.0)
BoiseSt, Clemson (0.0)
FloridaSt, Iowa, Georgia (100.0)
WakeForest, Fresno, Troy (0.0)
NoCarolina, Rutgers, Houston (0.0)
TexTech, EastCar, Florida (0.0)
Cincy, Connecticut, BallSt (0.0)
Made Groups: 1
Open Groups: 0
Dead Groups: 12
Winners: 13
Expected groups: 1.00
Expected winners: 14.91

Eric17

Minnesota (0.0 pct chance)
TCU, NCState (0.0)
Hawaii, FlorAtl (0.0)
NoCarolina, AirForce (0.0)
Troy, Cal, OregonSt (0.0)
Maryland, GaTech (0.0)
LaTech, Georgia (100.0)
OklaSt, Clemson, Connecticut (0.0)
WakeForest, SoFlorida, Florida (59.0)
BYU, Missouri (0.0)
BostCol, VaTech (0.0)
Alabama, Tulsa (0.0)
FloridaSt, Kentucky (100.0)
OleMiss, Texas (75.0)
SoCar, USC (0.0)
Fresno, WestMich (0.0)
Made Groups: 2
Open Groups: 2
Dead Groups: 12
Winners: 16
Expected groups: 3.34
Expected winners: 17.77

DaveM19

WakeForest, CentMich, Cal (0.0 pct chance)
USC, Alabama, Texas (0.0)
SoFlorida, NCState (0.0)
BYU, NoCarolina (0.0)
BoiseSt, Nevada (0.0)
Troy, LaTech (0.0)
Northwestern (0.0)
SoCar, EastCar (0.0)
OklaSt, VaTech (0.0)
Rice, Kansas, GaTech (0.0)
Houston, Tulsa (43.0)
Hawaii, OleMiss (0.0)
Fresno, Pitt (0.0)
Georgia, Buffalo (0.0)
FloridaSt, Vandy (100.0)
Clemson, Oklahoma (0.0)
Made Groups: 1
Open Groups: 1
Dead Groups: 14
Winners: 13
Expected groups: 1.43
Expected winners: 14.59

Hedgehog20

SoFlorida, Missouri, Iowa (100.0 pct chance)
FloridaSt, Cal, USC (100.0)
OregonSt, Kansas, Texas (75.0)
NoIllinois, TexTech, BallSt (0.0)
Rutgers, GaTech, Alabama (0.0)
NotreDame, BostCol (0.0)
VaTech, Florida (59.0)
SoMiss, NoCarolina (0.0)
TCU, Clemson, Georgia (0.0)
Arizona, Rice, OklaSt (0.0)
Navy, Nevada (0.0)
Fresno, Kentucky (0.0)
Houston, Buffalo (0.0)
Made Groups: 2
Open Groups: 2
Dead Groups: 9
Winners: 18
Expected groups: 3.34
Expected winners: 19.91

Chase22

Cal, Missouri, TexTech (0.0 pct chance)
SoFlorida, NoIllinois, Rutgers (0.0)
CentMich, FloridaSt, GaTech (0.0)
Texas, Oklahoma (30.8)
Utah (100.0)
Iowa, Nebraska (100.0)
NotreDame, WestMich (0.0)
Arizona, Kentucky (100.0)
BoiseSt, BostCol (0.0)
VaTech, BallSt (57.0)
AirForce, Connecticut (0.0)
OregonSt, MichSt (0.0)
SoMiss, OklaSt (0.0)
ColoSt, NoCarolina (0.0)
Navy, Nevada (0.0)
PennSt (0.0)
Minnesota (0.0)
Made Groups: 3
Open Groups: 2
Dead Groups: 12
Winners: 16
Expected groups: 3.88
Expected winners: 17.73

JeffH35

Fresno, SoFlorida, Alabama (0.0 pct chance)
Missouri, Kansas, TexTech (0.0)
CentMich, BostCol, Georgia (0.0)
Rutgers, USC, Texas (75.0)
BYU, OklaSt (0.0)
WestVirginia, FloridaSt (100.0)
Maryland, Houston (100.0)
Rice, Buffalo (0.0)
Troy, Pitt (0.0)
WakeForest, Oklahoma (41.0)
Cal, LaTech (100.0)
VaTech, EastCar (0.0)
Hawaii, SoCar (0.0)
BoiseSt, BallSt (0.0)
GaTech, Nebraska (0.0)
Made Groups: 3
Open Groups: 2
Dead Groups: 10
Winners: 16
Expected groups: 4.16
Expected winners: 17.73

rosdj37

BoiseSt, Cal (0.0 pct chance)
LSU, Georgia (100.0)
Cincy, Oklahoma (0.0)
CentMich, WestVirginia (0.0)
NotreDame, Kansas (100.0)
Navy, Fresno (0.0)
PennSt (0.0)
SoFlorida, Troy, FloridaSt (0.0)
Rice, Houston, OregonSt (100.0)
BostCol, Iowa, TexTech (0.0)
Kentucky, Texas (75.0)
Connecticut, Tulsa (43.0)
Arizona, LaTech (100.0)
Rutgers, Missouri, OklaSt (0.0)
Nevada, Clemson, Alabama (0.0)
Made Groups: 4
Open Groups: 2
Dead Groups: 9
Winners: 18
Expected groups: 5.18
Expected winners: 19.59

JWM38

Memphis (0.0 pct chance)
Minnesota (0.0)
PennSt (0.0)
Utah (100.0)
OhioSt (25.0)
CentMich, Missouri, Iowa (0.0)
NotreDame, Cal (100.0)
BostCol, VaTech (0.0)
ColoSt, FloridaSt (100.0)
Rutgers, AirForce (0.0)
Navy, NoIllinois (0.0)
Arizona, Oregon (100.0)
WestVirginia, BallSt (57.0)
Kentucky, Florida (59.0)
SoMiss, OregonSt (100.0)
Maryland, GaTech (0.0)
WestMich, Clemson (0.0)
MichSt, TexTech (0.0)
BoiseSt, Connecticut (0.0)
Made Groups: 5
Open Groups: 3
Dead Groups: 11
Winners: 17
Expected groups: 6.41
Expected winners: 18.41

JeffP39

PennSt (0.0 pct chance)
FloridaSt, VaTech (100.0)
Missouri, Nebraska (100.0)
BoiseSt, Cal (0.0)
SoMiss, TexTech (0.0)
Oregon, Iowa (100.0)
LaTech, Florida (59.0)
GaTech, Alabama, Texas (0.0)
SoFlorida, Hawaii, Rutgers (0.0)
WakeForest, Kansas, Georgia (100.0)
Fresno, BostCol, Connecticut (0.0)
CentMich, Houston, OregonSt (0.0)
Rice, EastCar, BallSt (0.0)
Arizona, NoCarolina, Nevada (0.0)
Made Groups: 4
Open Groups: 1
Dead Groups: 9
Winners: 19
Expected groups: 4.59
Expected winners: 20.91

MichaelH41

USC, TexTech, Texas (0.0 pct chance)
WakeForest, Fresno, EastCar (0.0)
OklaSt, GaTech, Florida (0.0)
SoFlorida, FloridaSt, Missouri (100.0)
Maryland, Rice, SoCar (0.0)
Miami, Buffalo, Tulsa (0.0)
NoCarolina, Pitt, BostCol (0.0)
NotreDame, Georgia (100.0)
Nebraska, Cincy (0.0)
BYU, Houston (0.0)
NoIllinois, Utah (0.0)
SoMiss, Rutgers (100.0)
BoiseSt, CentMich (0.0)
Minnesota (0.0)
Made Groups: 3
Open Groups: 0
Dead Groups: 11
Winners: 14
Expected groups: 3.00
Expected winners: 15.77

Barry43

SoFlorida, Missouri, Kansas (100.0 pct chance)
USC, Alabama, OhioSt (0.0)
Navy, Troy (0.0)
BoiseSt, CentMich (0.0)
Fresno, BYU (0.0)
NotreDame, FloridaSt (100.0)
WestVirginia, Cal (100.0)
Nevada, WestMich (0.0)
OregonSt, Vandy (100.0)
GaTech, Kentucky (0.0)
Iowa, Buffalo (0.0)
Clemson, Tulsa (0.0)
AirForce, Georgia (0.0)
Oregon, Cincy (0.0)
LaTech, TexTech (0.0)
Rutgers, Oklahoma (41.0)
Made Groups: 4
Open Groups: 1
Dead Groups: 11
Winners: 16
Expected groups: 4.41
Expected winners: 17.09

SLW44

WakeForest, FloridaSt, OklaSt (0.0 pct chance)
NoCarolina, Kansas, TexTech (0.0)
Arizona, Rice, Nebraska (100.0)
Alabama, Texas, Florida (0.0)
GaTech, Iowa, BallSt (0.0)
BostCol, Cincy, Connecticut (0.0)
Hawaii, OregonSt, Georgia (0.0)
BoiseSt, FlorAtl, Rutgers (0.0)
Troy, Kentucky (0.0)
NoIllinois, Maryland (0.0)
Missouri, AirForce (0.0)
Fresno, Miami (0.0)
PennSt (0.0)
Memphis (0.0)
Made Groups: 1
Open Groups: 0
Dead Groups: 13
Winners: 15
Expected groups: 1.00
Expected winners: 16.91