Harrison, of course, is a fantasy stud in almost everyone's book. In fact, his 1999 total of 239 fantasy points is the most by a wide receiver in the last four years (fantasy points, as always, defined as yards/10 + 6*TDs). He's still in his prime and playing for a team that looks to be an offensive force for years to come. So why isn't he an automatic no-questions-asked #1 on everyone's WR list? Primarily because of his relatively unimpressive second half. He did not score a TD in his last six games. His season broke down like this:
Weeks Avg. PTs per GM ----------------------------- 1 - 8 19.1 9 - 17 11.7This has caused some to speculate that defenses have figured out a way to shut Harrison down. Others feel that it's merely a bad stretch, and everybody has bad stretches now and then -- nothing to worry about. I've always leaned toward the "nothing to worry about" camp, but it is at least a little bit bothersome that Harrison never came out of his bad stretch. Probably this is just because the season ended and he didn't get the chance, but there is some doubt.
And of course, even in a bad stretch, Harrison is pretty darn good. Even with the TD drought, Harrison outproduced all but 11 WRs from week 9 on (in terms of fantasy scoring average). Everyone knows Harrison will be a solid fantasy producer this season. The only question is whether he'll blow everyone away, or merely be a run-of-the-mill top 5 receiver.
Patrick Jeffers represents the other side of the coin. After a mostly-unimpressive career and a mostly-unimpressive first half of 1999, he turned up the juice in a big way:
Weeks Avg. PTs per GM ----------------------------- 1 - 8 8.7 9 - 17 16.3
Is his second half performance indicative of things to come? The general question is: can we learn more about a player by breaking his stats into the two halves than we can by simply looking at the overall numbers?
Let's give it a whirl. I looked at all WRs and TEs from 1995 to 1998, who met the following criteria:
There were 104 players on the list and exactly half of them had a better first half and half had a better second half. Now, as usual, we look at what these players did the next year.
AVG in AVG in
Group Number Year N Year N+1 CHANGE
-----------------------------------------------------------
Strong Starters 52 150 145 -3.3%
Fast Finishers 52 161 147 -8.7%
A different look:
Improved in Declined in
Group Number Year N+1 Year N+1
-------------------------------------------------------
Strong Starters 52 23 29
Fast Finishers 52 18 34
So the Strong Starters of the world have, in the past, been more
likely to improve on the previous year's numbers than the Fast
Finishers have. That's interesting, and a little surprising. It
might be an indication that some Fast Finishers are piling up
numbers in meaningless games against rookie corners who are just out
there to get some experience. Or it might not mean anything.
As usual, I'm going to warn you not to read too much into this. I would not interpret this to mean that you should upgrade strong starters, but it certainly does appear that there is no reason to downgrade strong starters or upgrade fast finishers. In other words, unless you have a very good specific reason for doing so, don't worry about half-seasons.
One final note: this was a general study. It should be noted that Harrison and Jeffers are both extreme cases. Harrison would rank as the 2nd strongest starter, and Jeffers the 2nd fastest finisher of the last five years. As such, there may be something significant about their splits that this study didn't catch. Personally, I'm not convinced. My hunch: if Harrison isn't the #1 receiver this year, it won't be because defenses have figured him out. It'll be because of Randy Moss.
DIFF = 2nd half average - 1st half average (so a negative number indicates a better first half, and a positive number indicates a better second half) Last Name First Name YEAR 1 DIFF FPT1 YEAR 2 FPT2 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- MOORE HERMAN 1996 -8.6 184 1997 177 MORTON JOHNNIE 1996 -7.4 112 1997 145 LEWIS JERMAINE 1997 -6.4 116 1998 116 CONWAY CURTIS 1995 -5.6 183 1996 158 PICKENS CARL 1998 -5.0 133 1999 110 REED ANDRE 1997 -4.9 119 1998 110 EMANUEL BERT 1995 -4.4 134 1996 128 MATHIS TERANCE 1996 -4.2 119 1997 120 MARTIN TONY 1996 -4.1 201 1997 126 SHARPE SHANNON 1996 -4.1 166 1997 129 ELLARD HENRY 1995 -4.1 131 1996 112 MOORE HERMAN 1997 -3.9 177 1998 128 SCOTT DARNAY 1995 -3.8 113 1996 114 BROWN TIM 1997 -3.7 173 1998 155 MCCARDELL KEENAN 1996 -3.5 131 1997 146 HARRISON MARVIN 1998 -3.4 120 1999 239 MORTON JOHNNIE 1998 -3.4 116 1999 143 OWENS TERRELL 1997 -3.4 142 1998 205 MCCAFFREY ED 1997 -3.3 107 1998 165 MCDUFFIE O.J. 1997 -3.3 107 1998 148 COATES BEN 1997 -3.2 122 1998 103 ENGRAM BOBBY 1998 -3.0 129 1999 120 SMITH JIMMY 1997 -2.9 156 1998 166 MUHAMMAD MUHSIN 1998 -2.8 130 1999 173 ALEXANDER DERRICK 1996 -2.1 158 1997 155 CARTER CRIS 1997 -2.0 185 1998 173 ISMAIL RAGHIB 1998 -1.9 155 1999 163 MARTIN TONY 1997 -1.9 126 1998 154 CALLOWAY CHRIS 1997 -1.9 133 1998 118 PERRIMAN BRETT 1995 -1.7 208 1996 133 SCOTT DARNAY 1996 -1.7 114 1997 110 BRUCE ISAAC 1995 -1.6 258 1996 176 FRYAR IRVING 1995 -1.6 139 1996 185 MCCARDELL KEENAN 1998 -1.5 125 1999 119 RICE JERRY 1998 -1.5 170 1999 114 BROWN TIM 1996 -1.5 168 1997 173 IRVIN MICHAEL 1997 -1.5 172 1998 112 JOHNSON KEYSHAWN 1996 -1.4 127 1997 132 PICKENS CARL 1995 -1.3 226 1996 190 IRVIN MICHAEL 1995 -1.2 220 1996 108 SCOTT DARNAY 1998 -1.2 125 1999 144 WALLS WESLEY 1996 -1.1 131 1997 111 CARTER CRIS 1998 -1.0 173 1999 202 JACKSON MICHAEL 1995 -1.0 125 1996 204 GALLOWAY JOEY 1996 -.9 160 1997 184 EMANUEL BERT 1996 -.8 128 1997 153 MILLER ANTHONY 1995 -.6 192 1996 101 WESTBROOK MICHAEL 1998 -.5 111 1999 177 MCCAFFREY ED 1998 -.5 165 1999 144 ALEXANDER DERRICK 1997 -.5 155 1998 123 MARTIN TONY 1998 -.2 154 1999 133 GRAHAM JEFF 1995 -.1 154 1996 115 EARLY QUINN 1996 .3 105 1997 115 JETT JAMES 1997 .4 152 1998 125 SMITH ROD 1998 .4 171 1999 126 JOHNSON KEYSHAWN 1998 .5 185 1999 166 COATES BEN 1996 .5 122 1997 122 MOORE ROB 1996 .5 132 1997 209 REED ANDRE 1996 .5 142 1997 119 CARTER CRIS 1996 .5 176 1997 185 FREEMAN ANTONIO 1997 .5 198 1998 227 SMITH ROD 1997 .6 190 1998 171 MCDUFFIE O.J. 1996 .8 131 1997 107 SMITH JIMMY 1998 .9 166 1999 200 REED JAKE 1996 1.1 174 1997 149 RICE JERRY 1995 1.2 290 1996 187 JOHNSON KEYSHAWN 1997 1.4 132 1998 185 SMITH JIMMY 1996 1.4 172 1997 156 EARLY QUINN 1995 1.5 156 1996 105 FREEMAN ANTONIO 1998 1.5 227 1999 143 MOULDS ERIC 1998 1.7 191 1999 142 MORTON JOHNNIE 1997 1.7 145 1998 116 MOORE ROB 1995 1.8 118 1996 132 MARTIN TONY 1995 1.9 158 1996 201 JACKSON MICHAEL 1996 2.0 204 1997 116 CARRIER MARK 1995 2.1 118 1996 117 HARRISON MARVIN 1997 2.1 122 1998 120 SANDERS FRANK 1997 2.2 126 1998 133 FRYAR IRVING 1996 2.2 185 1997 168 MATHIS TERANCE 1997 2.3 120 1998 179 MCDUFFIE O.J. 1995 2.4 131 1996 131 MORTON JOHNNIE 1995 2.8 110 1996 112 GALLOWAY JOEY 1995 2.8 173 1996 160 MCCARDELL KEENAN 1997 2.9 146 1998 125 MOSS RANDY 1998 3.0 234 1999 212 MATHIS TERANCE 1998 3.0 179 1999 138 GADSDEN ORONDE 1998 3.1 113 1999 116 BROWN TIM 1995 3.2 194 1996 168 MOORE HERMAN 1995 3.4 253 1996 184 SHARPE SHANNON 1997 3.6 129 1998 137 SANDERS FRANK 1998 3.7 133 1999 101 REED JAKE 1995 3.7 171 1996 174 SANDERS CHRIS 1995 3.9 134 1996 112 COATES BEN 1995 4.0 128 1996 122 MATHIS TERANCE 1995 4.3 158 1996 119 MOORE ROB 1997 4.5 209 1998 128 BRUCE ISAAC 1996 4.7 176 1997 112 BROWN TIM 1998 4.8 155 1999 171 HARRISON MARVIN 1996 5.3 133 1997 122 SCOTT DARNAY 1997 5.3 110 1998 125 HASTINGS ANDRE 1996 5.6 113 1997 106 FREEMAN ANTONIO 1996 6.1 147 1997 198 GALLOWAY JOEY 1997 6.4 184 1998 167 CARTER CRIS 1995 7.8 239 1996 176