Both were rookies last year, and both enjoyed some success, but neither could claim his rookie year was anything terribly special. I thought it might be interesting to look at players whose rookie seasons were similar to Johnson's and Holt's, and see how they turned out. This might give us some clues about what to expect from these two youngsters.
We'll start with Johnson. He amassed 658 total yards and reached the end zone 4 times. That makes 90 fantasy points. I looked at the rookie season of every player active in 1998 or later, and came up with 19 running backs whose rookie season was between 70 and 110 fantasy points -- i.e. within 20 points of Johnson's. Here's the list:
LastName FirstName YEAR TOTYD TD FPT -------------------------------------------------- Barber Tiki 1997 810 4 105 Bates Mario 1994 641 6 100 Carter Ki-Jana 1996 433 9 97 Hampton Rodney 1990 729 4 97 Phillips Lawrence 1996 660 5 96 Hicks Skip 1998 456 8 94 Potts Roosevelt 1993 900 0 90 Johnson James 1999 658 4 90 Stewart James 1995 715 3 90 Meggett David 1989 648 4 89 Broussard Steve 1990 614 4 85 Floyd William 1994 450 6 81 Allen Terry 1991 612 3 79 Williams Harvey 1991 594 3 77 Harris Raymont 1994 700 1 76 Avery John 1998 570 3 75 Henley June 1998 565 3 75 Hill Greg 1994 666 1 73 Lee Amp 1992 464 4 70 Hayden Aaron 1995 523 3 70This is not an encouraging list for Johnson fans. There are only a few guys here who could be said to have successful fantasy careers. Hampton and Terry Allen had a few good years each. Raymont Harris, James Stewart, and Harvey Williams each enjoyed one or two respectable years. The rest of the list consists of backs who never had much fantasy value and almost certainly never will.
Yes, Johnson was injured for part of the year. But he was also, when healthy, given a real shot to win the job as a featured back on a team that loved to run the ball, and I would guess that most of the backs on the above list were not.
Nobody knows for sure what's in store for Johnson, but it is a fact that the overwhelming majority of backs who have had rookie campaigns like his have not turned out well, at least from a fantasy perspective. Good running backs, much moreso than other positions, are generally good from the start. I predict Johnson will be in and out of a starting role for various teams for a few years, and then will fade out of the league. If he's smart, he'll be a rich man by then, and will be able to tell his grandkids he played in the NFL, but he will have been no friend to fantasy owners.
He's Harvey Williams at best -- probably more like Greg Hill.
What about Torry Holt? He was good for 117 fantasy points last year, making him the second-best rookie receiver, behind Kevin Johnson. Here's a list of rookie WRs within 20 points of Holt:
LastName FirstName YEAR1 YD TD FPT1 FPT2 FPT3 FPT4 ------------------------------------------------------------------ Sanders Chris 1995 823 9 134 112 67 13 Harrison Marvin 1996 836 8 133 122 120 239 Johnson Keyshawn 1996 844 8 132 126 185 166 Scott Darnay 1994 866 5 127 113 114 110 Barnett Fred 1990 721 8 121 119 143 17 Rice Jerry 1985 927 3 119 260 251 201 Blades Brian 1988 682 8 119 137 72 114 Brown Tim 1988 725 5 114 1 45 87 Rison Andre 1989 820 4 108 181 169 178 Moore Rob 1990 692 6 105 129 99 90 Green Willie 1991 592 7 101 89 58 15 Sanders Frank 1995 883 2 100 105 126 133 Alexander Derrick 1994 828 2 99 25 164 155I've also included three extra columns here, which list how each player did in his second, third, and fourth seasons.
With the exception of Chris Sanders, and maybe Willie Green, there's not a complete fantasy dud in the bunch. There are 13 receivers listed here. Let's split them into groups:
Rice Jerry 1985 927 3 119 260 251 201 Harrison Marvin 1996 836 8 133 122 120 239 Brown Tim 1988 725 5 114 1 45 87 Rison Andre 1989 820 4 108 181 169 178 Johnson Keyshawn 1996 844 8 132 126 185 166So five of the 13 turned out to be legitimate fantasy studs. But note that success was not immediate for all of them. Keyshawn took until his 3rd year to show his potential, Harrison until his 4th, and Tim Brown was fairly worthless until his 6th year.
Moore Rob 1990 692 6 105 129 99 90 Barnett Fred 1990 721 8 121 119 143 17 Alexander Derrick 1994 828 2 99 25 164 155 Sanders Frank 1995 883 2 100 105 126 133 Blades Brian 1988 682 8 119 137 72 114 Scott Darnay 1994 866 5 127 113 114 110Six more who have been viable fantasy starters at some point. And I still think Frank Sanders has a chance to move into the top group. Note again that development was a slow process for some of these guys.
Sanders Chris 1995 823 9 134 112 67 13 Green Willie 1991 592 7 101 89 58 15I suppose we shouldn't entirely give up on Sanders just yet, but time is certainly running out on him. Anyway, it's encouraging that only two of Holt's comps ended up busting.
The lesson: history is overwhelmingly on Holt's side. His upside is Marvin Harrison, and his downside is probably something like Darnay Scott. Looking at particulars, Holt is obviously in a great situation, and from everything I've heard he has a tremendous work ethic and attitude. I fully expect him to join the top group someday, and I wouldn't be surprised if it happened this year.