Somewhere in there, it says something like this:
Good guys: 95 + Freeman + Hoard Bad guys: 82 + MossThat's right, it's Monday night, and you've got 3 hours of football bliss ahead of you (plus the extra hour of commercials). You decided to start Hoard instead of Warrick Dunn, who scored 9 fantasy points yesterday. Was that the right call? In general, should you lean toward Monday nighters when filling out your starting lineup?
There seem to be many schools of thought here. For the record, here's mine: given a choice between two players whom I view as completely equal, I'll start the Monday nighter. Why? My reasons are purely psychological, rather than strategic. For my own peace of mind, I'd rather be behind but gaining as I watch the Monday night matchup, rather than ahead but squirming.
There are people out there, though, who believe that players involved in the Monday night game should be chosen for another reason. Namely, they believe that players tend to "get up" for Monday night football. They're motivated by the bright lights and the millions of eyes upon them, and hence are more likely than usual to have a huge game.
If I had one more drop of psychological expertise, I'd be able to fill a medium-sized thimble, but I do know enough about the human mind to be suspicious of claims like the one above. You see, when a player has a big game on Monday night, it's more likely to stick in your mind than if he has a big game on a Sunday. Why? Well, first off, because it's more likely that you were actually watching it. Second, because the Monday night game is unique. It's notable. You'll frequently hear people say, "I remember this one Monday night game where Rice had 4 touchdowns!" You never hear people say, "Terrell Davis was absolutely huge in that one Sunday afternoon game." There's no reason to mention that it was a Sunday afternoon game, because Sunday afternoon is not an notable time to play football. Monday night is, so it sticks in your memory.
Or something like that.
The point is: our brains are very good at finding patterns, even patterns that aren't really there. Before running the numbers, I had a feeling that players "getting up" for Monday night was an illusion -- a trick that our minds play on us.
Let's check the facts.
Below, you'll find a list of all RBs, WRs, and TEs who played at least three Monday night games between 1997 and 1999 (I don't have QB data at present). Along with that, you'll see how many fantasy points they scored (per game) on both Monday and Sunday. For example, the best Monday nighter was Tim Dwight.
--MONDAY-- --SUNDAY--
LastName FirstNm POS G FPPG G FPPG DIFF
----------------------------------------------------------
Dwight Tim wr 3 14.6 14 6.5 8.1
As you can see, from 1997 to 1999, he averaged 14.6 fantasy points
per game on Mondays and only 6.5 per game on Sundays. That's a
difference of 8.1 points per game. The worst Monday nighter?
--MONDAY-- --SUNDAY--
LastName FirstNm POS G FPPG G FPPG DIFF
----------------------------------------------------------
Freeman Antonio wr 8 5.1 37 13.3 -8.2
Freeman appeared in 8 Monday night contests over the last three
years, and has been quite ordinary in them.
The complete list is attached below for your perusal, but here is the punchline: out of 132 players on the list, 53 played better on Monday, and 79 played worse on Monday. There are some bigtime fantasy performers at the bottom of the list, too. Antonio Freeman, Terrell Davis, Jimmy Smith, Rod Smith, Robert Smith, and Ricky Watters, among others, have been better on Sundays than on Mondays over the past three years.
In conclusion, go ahead and opt for the Monday nighter if it makes you feel better, but don't delude yourself into thinking that he is any more likely than usual to have a huge game.
--MONDAY-- --SUNDAY--
LastName FirstNm POS G FPPG G FPPG DIFF
----------------------------------------------------------
Dwight Tim wr 3 14.6 14 6.5 8.1
Hearst Garrison rb 5 21.0 24 13.2 7.8
Moss Randy wr 4 20.1 26 12.4 7.7
Dudley Rickey te 3 12.3 43 6.2 6.1
Mathis Terance wr 3 14.3 45 8.7 5.5
Thomason Jeff te 3 7.2 17 1.8 5.4
Thomas Lamar wr 6 9.3 22 3.9 5.4
Rison Andre wr 4 10.6 37 5.3 5.3
McPhail Jerris rb 3 7.8 11 2.7 5.2
Williams Sherman rb 3 8.8 19 3.9 4.8
Harris Raymont rb 4 14.1 15 9.5 4.6
Kirby Terry rb 5 11.2 36 7.4 3.9
Perry Ed te 5 4.8 17 1.1 3.7
Taylor Fred rb 3 18.6 22 14.9 3.6
Bradford Corey wr 4 7.6 16 4.1 3.5
Konrad Rob rb 3 4.8 11 1.6 3.2
Drayton Troy te 8 6.7 32 3.5 3.2
Ward Dedric wr 4 6.3 36 3.2 3.1
Johnson James rb 3 9.0 9 6.2 2.8
Stewart James rb 3 13.4 29 10.6 2.7
Smith Irv te 3 5.3 33 2.8 2.5
Anders Kimble rb 4 8.3 27 5.9 2.4
Johnson Charles wr 4 8.1 34 5.7 2.4
Hughes Danan wr 3 3.2 10 1.0 2.2
Hilliard Ike wr 3 8.1 31 5.9 2.2
Barlow Reggie wr 4 3.1 27 1.1 2.0
Edwards Marc rb 3 4.4 30 2.6 1.8
Gadsden Oronde wr 5 8.9 25 7.2 1.7
Levens Dorsey rb 7 15.7 29 14.3 1.4
Levy Chuck rb 3 3.7 12 2.4 1.3
McDuffie O.J. wr 9 8.1 35 6.8 1.3
Solomon Freddie wr 3 3.9 25 2.8 1.1
Martin Tony wr 3 10.0 42 9.0 1.0
Chmura Mark te 6 6.3 23 5.2 1.0
Chamberlain Byron te 5 4.1 13 3.1 1.0
Carter Tony rb 4 2.4 29 1.4 1.0
Byars Keith rb 4 4.0 23 3.0 1.0
Chrebet Wayne wr 3 8.4 39 7.7 .6
Hawkins Courtney wr 6 5.0 33 4.5 .6
Pritchett Stanley rb 6 3.2 28 2.6 .5
Griffith Howard rb 6 2.4 32 1.9 .4
Hanspard Byron rb 3 4.0 24 3.6 .4
Fryar Irving wr 3 6.2 42 5.8 .4
Irvin Michael wr 6 8.6 28 8.2 .3
Hoard Leroy rb 5 7.4 36 7.1 .3
Loville Derek rb 6 3.7 17 3.4 .3
Blackwell Will wr 4 2.2 31 1.9 .2
Harris Mark wr 3 1.2 14 1.0 .2
Jefferson Shawn wr 7 6.4 39 6.2 .1
McCardell Keenan wr 5 8.3 41 8.2 .1
Toomer Amani wr 3 5.7 41 5.7 .0
Williams Stepfret wr 3 2.8 15 2.8 .0
Bettis Jerome rb 6 12.2 36 12.2 .0
Lester Tim rb 5 .5 13 .7 -.2
Bruener Mark te 4 2.1 30 2.4 -.3
Jones George rb 3 2.2 21 2.5 -.3
Purnell Lovett te 4 2.0 16 2.4 -.4
Ogden Jeff wr 3 .9 14 1.3 -.4
Reed Jake wr 5 6.7 37 7.1 -.4
Johnson Keyshawn wr 4 9.5 43 10.0 -.5
Davis Tyrone te 6 3.3 22 3.7 -.5
Parmalee Bernie rb 7 1.8 33 2.4 -.5
Shelton Daimon rb 4 1.0 18 1.5 -.5
Anderson Richie rb 3 2.1 30 2.6 -.6
Clark Greg te 4 2.0 22 2.6 -.6
Brown Troy wr 6 4.9 28 5.6 -.7
Bjornson Eric te 4 2.1 28 2.8 -.8
Cullors Derrick rb 4 1.2 15 2.0 -.8
Carter Cris wr 4 11.2 40 12.0 -.8
Barber Tiki rb 3 5.5 40 6.3 -.9
Henderson William rb 9 2.6 34 3.4 -.9
Brooks Robert wr 6 7.2 19 8.0 -.9
Schroeder Bill wr 6 5.0 26 5.9 -.9
Coates Ben te 7 5.2 37 6.1 -.9
Dunn Jason te 3 1.1 15 2.1 -1.0
Smith Emmitt rb 8 12.3 35 13.4 -1.1
Abdul-Jabbar Karim rb 8 8.6 36 9.7 -1.1
Uwaezuoke Iheanyi wr 3 .4 15 1.5 -1.1
Floyd William rb 3 2.5 41 3.7 -1.2
Brown Tim wr 3 9.2 43 10.4 -1.3
Moore Dave te 3 2.4 37 3.7 -1.3
Turner Kevin rb 3 1.9 33 3.2 -1.3
Sharpe Shannon te 7 6.7 30 8.0 -1.3
Gonzalez Tony te 4 4.1 38 5.4 -1.3
Martin Curtis rb 6 12.6 37 14.0 -1.4
Rice Jerry wr 7 7.5 26 8.9 -1.4
Early Quinn wr 5 2.9 29 4.3 -1.4
Carswell Dwayne te 6 .4 23 1.8 -1.4
Kaufman Napoleon rb 3 8.6 41 10.0 -1.4
Mayes Derrick wr 5 5.1 31 6.6 -1.5
Owens Terrell wr 9 8.6 36 10.1 -1.5
Edwards Robert rb 3 12.3 13 13.8 -1.6
Johnston Daryl rb 3 .6 15 2.2 -1.6
Brisby Vincent wr 5 1.7 24 3.3 -1.6
LaFleur David te 7 2.0 28 3.6 -1.6
Stokes J.J. wr 9 4.7 38 6.3 -1.7
Mills Ernie wr 6 2.4 23 4.2 -1.8
Popson Ted te 4 .8 17 2.6 -1.9
Watters Ricky rb 3 11.0 45 12.9 -1.9
Jurevicius Joe wr 3 .6 19 2.7 -2.1
Patten David wr 3 .2 29 2.3 -2.1
Smith Robert rb 4 10.9 35 13.0 -2.1
Hatchette Matthew wr 4 1.0 15 3.2 -2.2
Ismail Raghib wr 4 6.2 39 8.4 -2.2
Green Willie wr 5 .8 19 3.0 -2.3
Calloway Chris wr 4 4.6 38 6.9 -2.3
Tucker Jason wr 3 1.1 9 3.4 -2.3
Gash Sam rb 3 .1 38 2.4 -2.3
Christian Bob rb 3 1.2 42 3.7 -2.5
Mitchell Pete te 4 1.6 43 4.0 -2.5
Glenn Terry wr 6 7.0 26 9.6 -2.6
McCaffrey Ed wr 9 7.4 34 10.1 -2.7
Moulds Eric wr 3 6.1 38 8.8 -2.7
Ward Hines wr 4 2.7 20 5.5 -2.8
Avery John rb 4 1.5 17 4.3 -2.8
Garner Charlie rb 6 6.4 35 9.3 -2.9
Vardell Tommy rb 3 1.7 28 4.7 -3.0
Smith Jimmy wr 5 8.1 42 11.0 -3.0
Way Charles rb 3 2.7 39 5.7 -3.0
Jones Damon te 3 1.0 23 4.1 -3.1
Warren Chris rb 4 4.5 34 7.5 -3.1
Glover Andrew te 4 1.1 36 4.7 -3.6
Smith Rod wr 9 7.6 37 11.1 -3.6
Anthony Reidel wr 3 2.0 40 5.6 -3.6
Bennett Donnell rb 3 3.4 34 7.1 -3.7
Reed Andre wr 3 2.7 42 6.6 -3.9
Davis Terrell rb 7 16.5 28 20.5 -4.0
Jett James wr 3 2.9 43 7.4 -4.4
Smith Antowain rb 3 4.0 41 9.1 -5.2
Allen Terry rb 3 5.4 33 10.7 -5.3
Alstott Mike rb 3 5.0 43 10.4 -5.4
Freeman Antonio wr 8 5.1 37 13.3 -8.2