The first thing I found is that defining a "breakout season" (in terms that a computer can understand) is not easy. I'll look at several different definitions of the term to try and cover all possible angles.
Probably the simplest way to define a players' breakout season is the first season in which he became a legitimate fantasy starter. Figuring one point per 10 yards and 6 points per TD, and a 10-team league which starts 2 WRs, I set the cutoff at 140 points -- roughly 1000 yards and 7 TDs.
I have career data for everyone who was active during 1998 or 1999. Of those, there were 59 different WRs who have at one time posted a season of 140 or more fantasy points. Here is how those 59 broke down in terms of their breakout season:
--------- Breakout Year -------
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 TOT
---------------------------------------------
Number 6 7 10 14 7 7 3 4 0 0 1 59
6 of the 59 were legit fantasy starters in their rookie season,
7 were legit fantasy starters for the first time in their
2nd year, and so on.
Not a real strong case for the 3rd-year receiver rule here. If a receiver is going to break out, it appears that year number 4 is the most popular year to do so. 3 is next, but only slightly ahead of 2, 5, and 6.
Technical note: this is a judgment call, but I proclaimed a player's "first year" to be the one in which he played his first NFL game. Thus Marcus Robinson gets classified as a 2nd-year breakout even though he had been out of college for three years. I think Robinson is the only guy affected by this, but maybe some of you will inform me otherwise when I post some more complete lists below.
Just for kicks, let's see how that compares to the other positions. I set the bar at 140 points for RBs and 225 for QBs (based on 1 point per 25, 6 per passing TD, and -3 per INT):
--------- Breakout Year -------------------
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 TOT
----------------------------------------------------
WR 6 7 10 14 7 7 3 4 1 59
RB 21 12 7 5 3 2 2 52
QB 3 16 5 7 5 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 2 46
These numbers are what we'd expect. While WRs can take awhile to
develop, good RBs are generally good from the start. QBs are a
crapshoot, although I was surprised by how many broke out in their
second season. That suggests that the possibility that some of this
year's sophomore class could well be viable starting QBs this season.
I have heard it suggested that it takes longer for big WRs to break out that it does for speed guys. So I broke the above 59 WRs down by weight:
--------- Breakout Year -----------
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 TOT
-----------------------------------------------------
195 Lbs and up 2 4 6 7 4 2 3 2 1 31
Under 195 4 3 4 7 3 5 2 28
These numbers do lend support to the above hypothesis. More of
the burners made their splash earlier than the big fellas.
Still nothing at all magical about year #3 for either group, though.
OK, now let's set the bar a little higher, and let's say a breakout season occurs when you reach 180 fantasy points for the first time. There are 32 active (this year or last year) WRs who have accomplished this. Here is when they did it for the first time.
--------- Breakout Year -----------------
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 TOT
--------------------------------------------------
Number 1 4 8 6 2 2 4 3 1 1 32
That's Irving Fryar who "broke out" in his 13th year, in case you
were curious. With this stricter definition of breakout, year 3
does indeed become the most likely breakout year, but not by much.
OK, now let's look at things from a different angle altogether. Let's say a breakout season occurs when a WR increases his fantasy points by 100 over the previous year's figure. This is not a perfect definition (as you'll soon see), but it captures most of the seasons typically considered in these kinds of discussions. Here is the complete list of such seasons (again, I only have data for players who were active this year or last year.). The last column (labelled "Exp") tells you which year in the player's career the given season was.
LastName FirstName Yr FPT PrevFPT DIFF Exp ---------------------------------------------------------- Robinson Marcus 1999 194 10 184 2 Bruce Isaac 1995 258 45 212 2 Rice Jerry 1986 260 119 141 2 Crowell Germane 1999 180 68 112 2 Freeman Antonio 1996 147 17 131 2 Smith Rod 1997 192 36 156 3 Conway Curtis 1995 183 70 114 3 Moulds Eric 1998 191 35 156 3 Alexander Derrick 1996 164 25 139 3 Jeffers Patrick 1999 182 45 137 4 Brooks Robert 1995 230 89 141 4 Harrison Marvin 1999 239 120 119 4 Irvin Michael 1991 200 71 129 4 Reed Jake 1994 142 7 135 4 Mathis Terance 1994 200 43 157 5 Smith Jimmy 1996 166 47 120 5 Barnett Fred 1994 143 17 126 5 Ellard Henry 1988 202 98 104 6 Bruce Isaac 1999 192 55 137 6 Thigpen Yancey 1997 182 36 146 7 Ismail Qadry 1999 147 0 147 7 Rice Jerry 1998 170 13 157 14Jerry Rice 1998 and Isaac Bruce 1999 don't really belong here, but we're more interested in the top of the list anyway. Note that more players made this large leap in their 2nd or 4th year than in their 3rd.
A 100-point increase is a lot to ask, so let's check out the list of WRs who accomplished a 50-point jump in fantasy production from one season to the next:
LastName FirstName Yr FPT PrevFPT DIFF Exp ---------------------------------------------------------- Freeman Antonio 1996 147 17 131 2 Bruce Isaac 1995 258 45 212 2 Rison Andre 1990 181 108 73 2 Crowell Germane 1999 180 68 112 2 Owens Terrell 1997 142 76 66 2 Robinson Marcus 1999 194 10 184 2 Rice Jerry 1986 260 119 141 2 Conway Curtis 1995 183 70 114 3 Carrier Mark 1989 196 127 69 3 Pickens Carl 1994 179 93 86 3 Owens Terrell 1998 205 142 63 3 Connell Albert 1999 156 57 99 3 Alexander Derrick 1996 164 25 139 3 Johnson Keyshawn 1998 185 126 59 3 Freeman Antonio 1997 198 147 50 3 Moulds Eric 1998 191 35 156 3 Turner Floyd 1991 141 64 77 3 Smith Rod 1997 192 36 156 3 Moore Herman 1994 183 130 54 4 Jeffers Patrick 1999 182 45 137 4 Slaughter Webster 1989 160 64 95 4 Chrebet Wayne 1998 156 98 58 4 Harrison Marvin 1999 239 120 119 4 Mayes Derrick 1999 143 57 86 4 Brooks Robert 1995 230 89 141 4 Toomer Amani 1999 155 66 89 4 Reed Jake 1994 142 7 135 4 Irvin Michael 1991 200 71 129 4 Barnett Fred 1994 143 17 126 5 Jett James 1997 152 84 68 5 Thigpen Yancey 1995 161 79 82 5 Rice Jerry 1989 254 201 52 5 Westbrook Michael 1999 177 111 66 5 Moore Herman 1995 253 183 69 5 Smith Jimmy 1996 166 47 120 5 Mathis Terance 1994 200 43 157 5 Bruce Isaac 1999 192 55 137 6 Jackson Michael 1996 204 125 79 6 Ismail Raghib 1998 155 57 98 6 Brooks Robert 1997 145 59 86 6 Ellard Henry 1988 202 98 104 6 Ismail Qadry 1999 147 0 147 7 Carter Cris 1993 161 106 56 7 Thigpen Yancey 1997 182 36 146 7 Metcalf Eric 1995 186 107 80 7 Dawkins Sean 1999 141 88 53 7 Irvin Michael 1995 220 160 60 8 McCaffrey Ed 1998 165 107 58 8 Moore Rob 1997 206 126 81 8 Perriman Brett 1995 208 109 99 8 Carter Cris 1995 239 168 72 9 Rice Jerry 1993 253 192 61 9 Mathis Terance 1998 179 120 59 9 Irvin Michael 1997 172 108 64 10 Reed Andre 1994 187 124 64 10 Ellard Henry 1994 175 108 67 12 Reed Andre 1996 142 54 88 12 Rice Jerry 1998 170 13 157 14This definition doesn't completely capture the essence of "breaking out" either, as lots of guys appear more than once. It seems a bit silly to call Terance Mathis' 1998 a breakout year, for example. Anyway, for those of you keeping score, that's 11 breakout seasons in year 3, 10 in year 4, and 7 in year 2.
To put it bluntly, the evidence in support of the 3rd-year receiver rule appears to be underwhelming at best. By no means am I claiming that this study closes the book on the issue. All of my definitions were admittedly flawed, and I wish I had a more complete set of data. But unless I see some hard evidence in support of the 3rd-year receiver rule (I've never seen any, by the way, just examples), I'm going to cross it off my list of things to consider.