Comments on: If Sam Bradford is worth 50 million guaranteed, what is Tom Brady worth? football, statistics, and football statistics (and other stuff) Fri, 11 Nov 2011 20:52:58 +0000 hourly 1 By: Clark Heins Tue, 03 Aug 2010 01:29:44 +0000 Reply to Posting 20 "Richie"

Sorry I didn't explain myself very well. Kiran counts years as "qualified" years---meaning the QB played most of the season as the starter. Kiran ranks his QBs by using standard deviation of the NFL's passer rating system's "mean". Tarkenton, with 18 seasons, has a standard deviation of .65 from the "mean"; Marino, with 16 seasons, has a standard deviation of .63; Unitas, with 15 seasons, has a standard deviation of .51; Favre, with 17 seasons through 2008, had a standard deviation of .42; Elway, with 16 seasons, has a standard deviation of .06. (P.S. To put these figures into perspective, Joe Montana has a standard deviation of around 1.3 and Peyton Manning has a standard deviation of around 1.2 through the 2008 season. Steve Young tops both Montana and Manning, but Kiran doesn't give a figure for either Young or Roger Staubach who I suspect may also be ahead of Montana and Manning.) Unfortunately, neither Kiran, or any other source I have found, including this web site (PFR), has composed a standard deviation chart of every QB's entire career---using year by year stats. The PFR web site uses three year averages (graded sort of on a curve with "100" being "average") which gives us a good general idea, but is not exact and is confusing as it differs so much from the usual standard deviation figures we are familiar with. I don't know why the PFR site isn't more exacting, but, in their present form, their figures are not of much use except for approximation purposes.
Anyway, Warren Moon's seasons from the CFL are not included. Favre's terrific 2009 season would push his standard deviation upward.
Ref: Kiran R.: "Brett Favre---Best Ever?", Feb. 14, 2009---includes numerous interesting charts.

By: Richie Mon, 02 Aug 2010 22:33:34 +0000

Let's wait until the first season whenever Sam Bradford starts. Then we will see how much he is worth. He is playing with the big boys now and he will have to have what it takes to make it in this league!

This is true, but not really relevant.

The questions are:
1) "Should" the Rams trade Bradford for Brady? This hypothetical needs to be asked now - not after he's played a year. After 1 year we'll have a lot more information, and the information we get will likely make either the Rams or Patriots unwilling to do the deal after 2010.
2) If an unproven Bradford is worth $50m, what is Brady worth? Again, the Rams have to pay Bradford now. They don't have the option of waiting until after he's played a year. And based on their gamble - what does that make Brady worth?

By: Richie Mon, 02 Aug 2010 22:30:22 +0000

Only 5 QBs have lasted as starters for 15 or more years with Fran Tarkenton in the top spot.

Favre, Tarkenton, Elway, Marino and Moon? Pretty amazing that Moon makes the list when he didn't start in the NFL until he was 28. (I count 18 apiece for Tarkenton and Favre.)

By: Scott Kacsmar Mon, 02 Aug 2010 21:41:07 +0000 When Bradford played in college, he was excellent. But he had a hard time staying healthy, and by skipping his senior year, he had a relatively short college career as a starter. Amazing that a guy like that can still get this huge contract when he's such a big risk for the NFL.

By: Charles Mon, 02 Aug 2010 21:06:06 +0000 Let's wait until the first season whenever Sam Bradford starts. Then we will see how much he is worth. He is playing with the big boys now and he will have to have what it takes to make it in this league!

By: Clark Heins Mon, 02 Aug 2010 20:07:29 +0000 Reply to Posting #9 by "Just Win Babby"

"Just Win Baby" asked if there are any trends toward older QBs performing at high levels. I refer you to the extensive research on this subject by Kiran Rasabetnam which can be found on under "New QB Rating"---see his 2009 blogs, most notably his March 14th, 2009, article. Kiran did a long series of articles on first year QBs and how they evolved over the years. He has many interesting charts and findings. To briefly summarize, Kiran found that it takes a typical NFL QB nearly five years to become "average". Performance remains steady from 5-9 years. There is a big dropoff in year ten. For those QBs who survive more than ten years, their performances increase dramatically from year 11 through 13 with their 12th season being, by far, their best. Only 5 QBs have lasted as starters for 15 or more years with Fran Tarkenton in the top spot.
If Kiran's research is correct, Tom Brady should just be entering his top performing years.

By: SSoG Mon, 02 Aug 2010 20:02:13 +0000 Re #15: Brady-caliber? HoF QBs don't really change teams until they're well past their primes. I can find a couple examples of really good QBs, though. How about Cutler? He loses Shanahan/Clady/Harris/Graham/Marshall/Royal, he gains Lovie/Pace/Hester/Knox/Aromatherapy, his ANYA drops from 6.6 to 4.8.

Jake Plummer also demonstrates the concept in reverse. In 6 years in Arizona, he had 4.4 ANYA, 24 more INTs than TDs, and won 36.6% of his games. In 4 years in Denver, he had 6.3 ANYA, 24 more TDs than INTs, and won 72.2% of his games (a higher career winning percentage than Peyton Manning or Joe Montana, just to name a few).

I think the impact of supporting cast is ludicrously underrated in terms of a QB's success.

By: Richie Mon, 02 Aug 2010 18:11:15 +0000 Can anybody think of any similar examples of a Brady-caliber QB going from a good team to a horrible team? In other words, what are the chances that Brady plays for the Rams and is a failure without the supporting cast of New England?

By: Jason Lisk Mon, 02 Aug 2010 17:49:08 +0000 Brandon @5, here is the list:

Dan Fouts
Joe Montana
Jim Hart
Jeff Garcia
Dan Marino
Jim Kelly
Terry Bradshaw
Troy Aikman
Trent Green
Steve Bartkowski
Brett Favre
Steve McNair
Ron Jaworski
Ken Anderson
Jim Everett
Phil Simms
Joe Theismann
Boomer Esiason
Mark Brunell
Warren Moon
Vinny Testaverde
Bobby Hebert

However, the correlation coefficient between the ANYA+ from age 28-32, and the last age of a starting season with an ANYA+ of 100 or more, is -0.01 for this group. Fouts, Hart, Aikman, Kelly and Bradshaw were all done before age 36, while Simms and Moon, two guys that were at the bottom of the list, boost the numbers tremendously by having 12 combined above average starting seasons after 32. In other words, I'm not sure that we can go by "Brady is better than the average QB in this group" in trying to guess his future.

Re: #8

I think those are valid questions. I do suspect quarterbacks can play slightly longer now, and we do not know the impact of the softening of rules on hitting the quarterbacks in the last five seasons. Still, I'll point out that there were 11 starting QB's who had an above average season in the 1970's at age 36 or older, compared to 9 different ones this last decade. Now, we didn't have anyone quite like Favre, but I don't know if that's a universal trend. McNair and Aikman both broke down early for recent guys. The overall cc between [year at age 32] and age of last season as above average starter is +0.12. That would show a small relationship between recent retirees and playing longer.

By: Vince Mon, 02 Aug 2010 17:45:07 +0000 Brady is a better quarterback than most of his comparables - he's already 15th on Chase's greatest quarterbacks of all time list (and that was before last season). It looks like 20 of the 22 comps - all but Fouts and Montana - were worse than Brady at ages 28-32. So I'd expect him to do better at ages 33-38 than the average of those 22.