Win Probability Calculator

Enter a game situation (and optional vegas line) to determine a team's win probability at that point. For instance, if you are favored by 2 and trailing by 7 in the 4th quarter with 5 minutes left and the ball on your own 20, we calculate your Win Probability to be 15.53%. Click here for a detailed explanation of the formula behind win probability.

Win Probability

4th Quarter, 5:00 remaining, trailing by 7,ball at team 20, 1st down & 10 to go:

Expected Points: 0.277

Win Probability: 15.53%

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Game Situation